Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 09/7/2019 17:26

hxxps://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ugandas-yoweri-museveni-from-liberator-to-dictator/a-45130141

Would be great if tullow exited Uganda.

[subsurface] 09/7/2019 09:08

on Uganda one of two things
Its gone above company level if Total cannot get things going so its political arm twisting / cut aid /just a job for Trump.

The other way Tullow pay the tax from the 900 million and sell off the 10% and get out


If we dont get the deals done its going to keep pulling on Tullow which is the last thing we need if we do well in Guyana

On Kenya I was thinking build 50km of pipe then commission with a loading point while the next 50km is being fabricated so its done modular getting closer to port in stead of waiting 3 years for full completion sorry if its a daft idea

[bootycall] 09/7/2019 08:44

Manicat... are you sure Museveni will live that long ? In any case a French controlled project would never be allowed to fester like that. The French are always able to assert themselves one way or another. Some fudge will be on its way... maybe in 6 months when all the real horse trading has been done. The amount of money being argued over relative to the debt interest Uganda is paying makes the whole situation laughable if it wasn’t so sad. Meanwhile investors will start to price in failure in Uganda... funny if Total does a deal with the Ugandans to pay the amount owing and then takes Tullow over at a depressed sum of the parts valuation. I always like to let me imagination get carried away !

[manicat] 09/7/2019 07:45

The oil in uganda is going to stay in the ground for a very long time. amd imo tullow will be producing oil out of guyana before uganda

[subsurface] 09/7/2019 01:55

Hi Manicat, All looks so positive glad Total are on the Job too Gil has put up many Videos On U tube well worth a look the one telling about dark images on the Seismic seems all very positive,I have lost a lot of confidence in Tullow , of late a chance to recover ground ! With Gil /Eco investors take a high priority. with Tullow they look after rewarding themselves.
Whats going to happen in Uganda?

[manicat] 08/7/2019 23:25

Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas Ltd (LON:ECO) (CVE:EOG) has revealed the impressive findings of a new resource assessment for the Orinduik Block, offshore Guyana, ahead of exploration drilling later this year.

Consultant Gustavson Associates has estimated some 3.98bn barrels in prospective resources across 15 exploration areas, which for Eco’s 15% stake in Orinduik, equates to 597.3mln barrels net to the AIM-quoted firm.


Gustavson viewed a ‘low case’ estimate of 2.01bn barrels of prospective resources, and a ‘high case’ of 7.2bn - which net to Eco, amounted to 302mln to 1.08bn barrels.

READ: Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas boss “very excited” as exploration drilling nears
The new assessment follows the completion of the 3D processing and an additional six months of interpretation work. It included processed data from a 2,550 square kilometre 3D seismic programme, and, insights gleaned from regional discoveries (such as Hammerhead) made by Exxon.

"Eco is pleased with the progress made in defining the prospectivity on Orinduik,” said Colin Kinley, Eco chief operating officer.

“As the regional play continues to develop, and more discoveries have been made, particularly in the Tertiary play, as was proven by Exxon's Hammerhead 1 discovery, this has allowed us to build upon our model.”

Well will target the Jethro prospect
Kinley highlighted that the first exploration well will target the Jethro prospect which was estimated at 214.5mln barrels by Gustavson, with a 43.2% chance of success.

He added: The partners are in the process of approving a second well and we believe the risking will be in the same range as for Jethro.

“We hope to confirm drilling plans for well number two in the near future to take advantage of the economics of our rig on the block.”

“We have confidence in our and our partners' work to date, as we continue to work with the industry leading teams at Tullow, who is the operator, and Total, who is a fully engaged partner.

“At this point, we are looking to drill strategic lower risk targets.

“Assuming positive results, we aim to move quickly to production planning and optimum economics for our partnership and the people of Guyana."

Luxury problems to have
In a note to clients, analysts at SPAngel commented: “In what is likely to be the final resources statement before the start of the drilling campaign on the Orinduik block, at a gross predrill estimate of 3,981.9mm boe, this report quantifies and confirms the potential of the licence area.”

They added: “What is interesting to note is that very little is being given away by the Hammerhead discovery already in the block, which given the abundance of high-quality seismic significant improves exploration confidence, even if exploration risks remain.”

The analysts concluded: “Whatever the outcome, that Hammerhead has been observed as coming on to the licence already means that the Company has more than exploration value, but the question is how much.

“These are luxury problems to have, and ones which we believe will result in value creation for the Company and its shareholders.”

In afternoon trading, shares in Eco Atlantic were 2.5% higher at 91.75p.

THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS SWEET 7 BILLION BARRELS AND NOT ONE INCH FARMED OUT

[subsurface] 08/7/2019 14:28

Guyana



New interview from Gil /ECO

[stag6] 08/7/2019 10:29

subsurface..interesting read!!

[mcsean2164] 06/7/2019 17:07

Interesting...

delays in establishing the necessary laws and institutions, erecting the requisite infrastructure, disagreement over route to production, and major tax wrangles have delayed the start of production for 13 years now.

Meanwhile:

Meanwhile, average Uganda annual income $600.
Uganda 31st in Africa :

If I lived in Uganda, I might be annoyed with Museveni..

[subsurface] 06/7/2019 04:04

posted in June
Tullow will need a miracle to get FID in Uganda this year



Elections next year ,and Uganda have spent money from the oil fund which may help to focus minds.

[subsurface] 05/7/2019 15:24

Some more detail

[billy_buffin] 05/7/2019 11:38

Rig has been stationary (via marine traffic) since 26th so would have thought setting conductor, BOP, Riser Package and Riser itself well past by now... up to 3 PSV's in attendance. Yes RR TLW seems to liken itself unto Shell etc

[rayrac] 05/7/2019 11:19

Not big enough news for Tullow to mention?

[hsfinch] 05/7/2019 08:50

Guyana is the only hope for share price recovery in the short term. The prospect isn't large though. Odds are it will be of one of those technical discoveries with little prospect of being commercial. But even if it is, it will move the needle coz its Guyana. I reckon 20% chance its a duster, 60% chance its a technical success and 20% chance its a reasonable development prospect. And share price movements associated with those outcomes -5% + 5% +20%. Not bad if you're quick on your feet and macro considerations don't spoil the party.

[fraserdean] 04/7/2019 10:46

Hope you're not implying any law abiding Italians have ever bribed anybody :)

[mcsean2164] 04/7/2019 10:31

One of the blocks was however reserved for Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC).

Let's bear in mind that Tullow are transparent. They may be a victim of their own morals.

[ifthecapfits] 04/7/2019 09:47

Not the RNS we're looking for. Will they announce spud?

[manicat] 03/7/2019 23:34

all focus now is on guyana orinduik and kanuku if they hit the oil like exxon next door ghana will look after its self pumping out large amounts of cash

[billy_buffin] 03/7/2019 17:03

True enough and white coveralls for God's sake... but maybe Modec men

[fraserdean] 03/7/2019 11:45

They couldn't even get the block they wanted in ghana licensing round, the core of their operations, not impressive

[ifthecapfits] 03/7/2019 09:11

To what extent do we think Guyana is in the share price - not a lot I think. On a hit I would expect at least 20% uplift initially. More as time progresses and further drills are done. Would expect the effect on ECOs share price to be materially more. What chance TO once the area has been proven up?