Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 10/12/2019 11:02

Back in 2009 I watched CAPE, an oil services company quickly drop from 250p to 70p for no apparent reason other than there appeared to be a large, probably distressed seller.

Took a modest position around 70p only to watch the price continue to decline to 25p under relentless selling pressure - the management again issued an RNS saying they could see no reason for the fall.

Shortly after an II with a very large holding announced it had fallen below 3% - within a few weeks they had found a buyer for the rest and the share price took off like a Saturn 5 rocket.

Within 2 years the shares were trading at over 600p( a 24 bagger) - many II's get it completely wrong, that's why over 90% fail to beat the Index they broadly track.

I held on down to 25p(despite hovering over the sell button a few times on the near waterfall drop) and then rode it back up to 250p only to learn a very expensive lesson - always continue to ride your winners until the story or sector sentiment changes.

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 10:59

...fair enough reasoning odvod

[odvod] 10/12/2019 10:57

mm - ok value now but TA (long term chart, momentum, volume) tells me that purchases bellow 8p are possible soonish. so I wait

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 10:34

...the BB would be grateful for the numbers you have calculated to arrive at 8p odbod

[odvod] 10/12/2019 10:30

bellow 8p I am a buyer as well

[mount teide] 10/12/2019 10:28

'Well someone's buying them'

Guilty as charged your honour! Been adding a few more.

In 2 years years time when Brent is changing hands at $75 to $80/bbl the market will look back at TRIN changing hands at sub 9p in late 2019 and think what an opportunity was staring me in the face, if only I had the courage to act!

Such is life and the world of equity investment in sectors temporarily out of favour but close to entering the sweet spot of the oil market cycle recovery stage for the first time since 2002.

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 10:27

Well another 40k at 8.65 added to what is getting saturation point for me with this investment

[mark10101] 10/12/2019 10:23

MM, that is what I am hoping, last negotiated flush. Unbelievable for us to be sitting at pretty much the same price we delisted at in 2017. Oil was in the $40’s, debt was still fairly large for MCAP, yes we were diluted in 2018 to put cash in the bank but we are a vastly different company to then. Lets hope our new buyer has deep enough pockets to see this through.

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 10:08

Well someone's buying them otherwise the mm's have a lot of stock in their back pocket

[mark10101] 10/12/2019 09:54

Looking like the last flush from the seller (he says for the 15th time...)

[otemple3] 10/12/2019 09:44

And here they come.....

[mark10101] 10/12/2019 09:23

Good to see some decent buying at this level, even if MT’s article is half right we should be a lot nearer 20p than 10p next year.

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 09:22

Realy, how desperate must this Kamikazi seller be to be selling at what surely must be a substantial loss.

[marvelman] 10/12/2019 09:16

...and silence from "management"

[mount teide] 10/12/2019 09:07

Opec+ production reduction increase to 2.1m bopd - Market reaction

Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note: “Strong compliance, coupled with other positive economic developments, such as a pick-up in global inventory restocking and a small US-China trade deal, could push Brent to our $70 price target ahead of schedule.”

Goldman Sachs revised its Brent price for 2020 to $63 per barrel, up from $60 previously, in the expectation supply-demand numbers will be largely in balance. The bank said that the deal would likely increase the backwardation in the futures curve.

US Investment Bank Raymond James in a note to clients was more supportive of the market outlook. The bank sees WTI averaging $65 in 2020 and Brent averaging $70. But with the upward trajectory accelerating into 2021, with WTI averaging $75 and Brent averaging $80. “These forecasts are above consensus and futures strip pricing, so we remain emphatically in the bullish camp on oil,”.

Goldman Sachs analysts are skeptical that the deal may actually throw a lifeline to the US shale sector. “This higher spot price forecast does not lead us to raise our 2020 US shale production growth forecast which remains at 600 kb/d. Poor financial performance, excess leverage and an increased focus on emissions have pushed the cost of capital of shale oil producers sharply higher, with this pressure no longer delivered by oil prices but by equity and debt markets,”. “We therefore expect the recent shale restraint to persist even at moderately higher prices given it will take years to clean up the debt, capacity and emissions excesses.”

[spellbrook] 10/12/2019 09:02

we await the 50-100-150k sells

[oilinvestoral] 09/12/2019 21:37

Thanks no cents! But really expected to be over 10.8 by now rather than back to 8.8! Frustrating that the company won't even provide regular updates!

[mark10101] 09/12/2019 19:55

Me also.

They have created a mountain to needlessly climb. Bruce tells me to be patient, I will not be selling down here so I guess that is what I will have to be and hope he delivers some news the market can get it’s teeth into.

[otemple3] 09/12/2019 19:33

If nothing else Spell, it makes me chuckle everyday ;-)

[spellbrook] 09/12/2019 18:44

Pb2

No, but I will continue

We need to hit 3400

[princebuster2] 09/12/2019 17:29

Spell..have you ever had a reply on twitter from the many posts youve done, tagging the board??

[nocents] 09/12/2019 17:26

Oili. It is market opportunism. Seller knows nothing I don’t know.
The market would love you to doubt yourself!

[oilinvestoral] 09/12/2019 17:01

Wonder if the (( seller )) knows something I don't! I'm really starting to second guess myself. Didn't expect to be back here again !

[mark10101] 09/12/2019 15:28

Another tick up, let’s hope this was just general TLW shakes. If anything it should make people realise the value in a clean and solid balance sheet like TRINs.

Even at TLW current MCAP after a 68% fall the cost/bopd production at 70,000bopd guidance is pretty much the same as TRIN atm, but the market is not liking TLW £2.2billion of debt racked up for those flowing barrels. It highlights TRIN should be worth multiple more if TLW its worth what it is now even after is massive fall.