Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[wwick] 29/10/2017 20:50

Trinity Exploration & Production – Management Interview -

[spellbrook] 28/10/2017 07:58

Morgan Stanley: Oil Stocks Are Very Interesting Now

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 27, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT

[leontitcombe] 27/10/2017 23:39

Great post witj

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 22:05

Knocked and burst through.

[croasdalelfc] 27/10/2017 20:40

Wti knocking on $54

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 20:06

I think it is possible our new arriver was helping an order being filled around 18p. Very much like the 8p brigade that facilitated somone to load up at 11p. I am personally very happy to hold TRIN over the weekend with WTI knocking on the door of $54 and Trinity about to start it’s biggest PR push since inception.

[the big fella] 27/10/2017 19:29

WITJ - excellent posts as always.

[wingspan] 27/10/2017 15:58

Thanks Whiskey - really helpful.

[whiskeyinthejar] 27/10/2017 15:31

Trinity have plenty of cash. The presentation is a bit conservative because they want to demonstrate their low risk credentials.

They'll average more than 2500 bopd this year, as in August they were already at 2600 bopd. Break even is now $28 and WTI has done better than $45 every month this year. It should average above $50 this year:



They also have cash in bank- $11.5m at end of H1. And $4.5m from asset sale to come.

More interestingly, we don't yet have a target for next year. With largely fixed costs, adding additional barrels gives an outsized cash boost.

I have in my notes that netback at 3,400 bopd and $50 would be $21m. I'll need to check that though.

I think they can easily average 3,600 bopd next year and wti should average about $55.

[fsawatcher] 27/10/2017 13:06

Dont paste very well but it from prsentation

Gross revs about $37m

they got more costs to come out with G&A

i doubt they make more than $10m per year free cash flows

this share price not goin higher than 21p while they doin 2600 bpd

it chance of 30p if they do 3000 bpd

it not bad but it look like they need more fundin to drill new wells to get higher than 3k bpd

Indicative Production Economics
@ US$45/bbl WTI
11
ECONOMICS @ US$45/
bbl
WTI
Production Scenario
2,500
bopd
3,000
bopd
Operating netback
$9.0/
bbl
$12.2/
bbl
Royalties*
$12.2/
bbl
$12.2/
bbl
Operating costs*
$19.4/
bbl
$16.2/
bbl
Assumed disc. to
WTI
$4.5/
bbl
$4.5/
bbl
Indicative Annualised
2,500
bopd
3,000
bopd
Produced Volumes (
bbls
)
912,500
1,095,000
Implied Gross Revenues
$37.0mm
$44.3mm
Implied
Operating Netback
$8.2mm
$13.3mm

[che7win] 27/10/2017 08:55

hur - I don't like North sea assets, prefer here.

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 08:40

It is higher but was basing it on his pessimistic figures, if we focus on the cheaper onshore production our profitability will rocket.

Kaos, I could have sold at 19p and put into a few other oilers I have been watching and done well. But as you say quite easy to get it wrong. We have presentations starting next week and we have the new broker note. Tax reform and various other news to be announced, I want to be in TRIN for those. Somone accumulating at 18p I would be amazed if we go back to 15p.

[uapatel] 27/10/2017 08:34

Think it's more like a £1M per month, Mark10101. I seem to recollect around 250k GBP per week was being bandied about prior to the investor presentation last month.

[kaos3] 27/10/2017 08:30

I sold at 14 for hur (mistake) bought at 10+ (could not get enough) sold at 18. hope to get back in at 15+.


I wait for 15+ as the share could not get over 20 is what I am saying. might be wrong as swapping into hur.

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 08:28

Ok then, show me another profitable AIM oiler that is making £3/4m per months at TRINS valuation.

As you say best to look at the actual presentation as it paints a far rosier picture than your post.

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 08:24

Well spotted, yes 8p would be pretty gutting. I was right with the 8p muppets that we would see 20p before 8p and that was when we were at 10p....

[fsawatcher] 27/10/2017 08:24

Trin only makin $9 per barrel profit on 2500bopd

that very small after taxes and costs

i fink some peeps are gettin carry away coz they fink $52wti mean $45pb profit to trin

it dont.

they gonna make about $13 per barrel profit when they get to 3000bopd

that cud go to $15pb profit

aint bad but not massive is it

debt converted at 5p a share and 187m shares at 5p gonna find way back to market at 19p

presentation on website tell you all the above

[kaos3] 27/10/2017 08:14

8p is a gut price imho

[mark10101] 27/10/2017 08:07

200k at 18p still looks like someone is accumulating while we await news.

[whiskeyinthejar] 26/10/2017 22:42

Thanks mawc.

[mark10101] 26/10/2017 22:39

Oil pushing to new recent highs.