Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[whiskeyinthejar] 07/11/2017 14:14

The finance minister has told EVERYONE in his budget statement that he intends to sort SPT by year end. So the timetable isnt anyone's inside information, even if details are only known by insiders.

Frankly, it's overdue and they know they desperately need to encourage investment in oil. Trinidad now mostly produces gas, so they can compensate a large cut in oil tax rate by just a tiny hike on gas taxation.

It was world's 8th largest exporter of LNG last year. And I read that Trinidad contributes 17% of BP's total global revenue. But Trinidad's oil production has been falling for decades- it's fallen from about 300,000 bopd to only 60,000 bopd last year. That's pants. So Imbert knows he has to get his finger out and encourage more investment in oil.

[melody9999] 07/11/2017 13:02

took an initial 90K this am at 17.199 though it showed as an hour later as a sell.

GLA

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 12:25

True. However TXP MD let it slip in his recent podcast that they are being told the reform is going to happen for sure this time, so look very likely and the government did say before the end of the year. Also as WITJ points out they now have it proposed in a way that is a lot more attractive to all parties.

[nafafa] 07/11/2017 12:00

And some on LSE like to give the impression that they know a lot more than in reality it turns out they do!

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 10:41

Somone on LSE said that TRIN believes the reform will be announced in December so hopefully not long now. Certainly want to be in TRIN when it is announced.

[whiskeyinthejar] 07/11/2017 10:38

By the way, the reform of SPT isn't controversial, so I don't see any difficulty in getting the reform through. Opposition politicians are on board- here's the opposition's former oil minister pushing for SPT change:



They have a huge incentive to get a move on, because by extending it to gas they will get more revenue in immediate term. And obviously by encouraging the likes of Trinity to invest, they should get more oil revenue in longer term too.

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 09:43

Nafafa, yes the SPT is particularly punitive and somthing I wish I had understood more about prior to investing in 2014. However it is not triggered for 3 months and the indications are there will be an anouncmnet shortly regarding the necessary reform. Ultimately we need the reform to get to the very juicy share prices I think we will, but even with it in place I think we are still a way from fair value.

[yasx] 07/11/2017 09:37

The last few days provided a great opportunity for those who sold the highs to buy back again...

[nafafa] 07/11/2017 09:36

Mark, I agree with you about short term sheltering from ppt, but it is levied at 50% steady state. The spt regime is still in place and particularly putative, though of course we are all looking for this to be addressed. Having been invested here for four torturous years it’s fantastic to see patience now paying dividen.

[mo2550] 07/11/2017 09:21

TRIN - Accumulating lots interest ...whats not to like :-)

[ny boy] 07/11/2017 09:10

This one is ridiculously under-valued imho, added yesterday, can’t be long now for expected great news flow GLA

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 08:46

Also the point I have been making is that every $5 increase from a week ago makes us $5 more profitable per barrel than a week ago.

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 08:39

Nafafa, we have a current breakeven of $29 including G&A. Also somthing worth reminding new guys is

“Profits from production continue to be sheltered from Petroleum Profits Taxes ("PPT) by Trinity's significant tax losses and allowances position (current tax loss pool of USD 217.6 million)”

[mo2550] 07/11/2017 08:24

Take Off :-)

[nafafa] 07/11/2017 08:23

Mark10101 your analysis implies a profit of $26 a barrel. Setting aside spt matters, I think the net profit after oil sale discount, royalties and ppt is more like $10-15 a barrel. Still implies a healthy valuation of twice the current level. Over the past couple of days I have taken full advantage of the share price weakness

[mark10101] 07/11/2017 08:19

Yes Bones, capped because the US will just turn on the taps. I will admit my reason for investing in Oil in 2014 with all the money printing we had had before was that you could not print oil... In hind sight that is exactly what the fracking revolution was. Colossal lending delivering awful returns. earlier this year I read there had been a massive drop in lending to the frackers, this may just be about to work into the US numbers. I do believe the fracking story is a possitive one but it does seem the market may have latched onto it with a little too much faith.

Seem the MM this morning have had to relent to the buying pressure at this level.

[bones] 06/11/2017 21:08

Mark, it looks better the more the oil price increases. The experts keep saying Brent won't stay above $50, now it won't stay above $60 (they say). The trend is firmly up and it seems US shale has run out of gas or maybe just their banks have run out of finance for the highly leveraged companies out there.Meantime, TRIN scoops in the cash daily. Opens up the ability to work over more wells, plan for debt or convertibles repayments and look toward drilling the big fields offshore ultimately.Once the sale of West Coast completes, the share price may finally get moving if the coming update doesn't beforehand.

[mark10101] 06/11/2017 20:55

At the risk of counting chickens too early, at $60 WTI ($55 after discount) a conservative 2600bopd TRIN will make $25m profit/year. We should have a market cap on a 10PE of around £200m or nearly 5 times current level.

[ny boy] 06/11/2017 17:07

Nice 180,000+ buy @ 17.25p

Added myself today, crude is powering ahead, bodes well here, with good news flow the share price could blast off!

[croasdalelfc] 06/11/2017 16:59

''We look forward with confidence and in providing a further quarterly update in November.''

[mark10101] 06/11/2017 16:31

Powering on, games still going on here but the story is getting better and better by the day.

[spellbrook] 06/11/2017 16:29

Closing in on $57

[mark10101] 06/11/2017 16:28

Yes and Yeman

[che7win] 06/11/2017 16:19

The Saudi arrests may be part of the reason for oil rising?