Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 24/6/2024 13:23

Any idea of the vote?

[davidblack] 24/6/2024 13:23

Any idea of the vote?

[nocents] 23/6/2024 15:55

D-day Monday.Decision day.
I would like to know who increased their holdings.
I would also like to hear from Txp regarding projected FCF from Cascadurra, when it is likely to come on line, and what their ‘24 and’25 plans are. This share price , like Trin’s, has become farcical. Who is not losing money, and some considerably. I am about 75% down . And having lost large 6 figures in 4D, it hurts as there are now sadly only a few pennies in the coffer and life has degraded..
I don’t expect a share resurgence in ‘24, but TXP was hardly producing until recently so clearly their vision is on growth. Trin’s tax exemption may help, they may ( I hope) dispose of Galeota at some stage, but 2025 could see a decent drilling campaign.
Maybe.

[pavey ark] 22/6/2024 11:22

flyinghorse1, a rare post from me these days and was going to bring up another point ....but....what are you on ? ....can you work a calculator ?

"Will TXP alter the terms of engagement even if Trinity share holders 71% agree--as a TXP shareholder I surely hope they do."......what ?!!!

Heading out now but very willing to take this further.

Lexus880.....I missed that.. can you give more detail...thanks.

[nocents] 22/6/2024 10:50

Terms cannot be altered post-vote.
Not sure what these risks are(??). Trin carries negligible risk and decent reward. TXP has around $20m debt but Trin can help with that, as can FCF. The ‘market’ has not marked down this deal. It is simply responding to people selling some TXP. Buying Trin makes more sense but Trin’s price in turn reflects TXP only until end Q3 or whenever date of enactment. This is a very good deal for TXP!! 20% dilution for what they get!! Not sure I follow your logic.
Galeota will not be developed by Trin, and Paul Baay has repeatedly made it clear he is mainly interested in onshore development. Galeota can however be used for considerable tax losses, which may merge with BA , and could possibly be sold off . A large producing oil company borders Trin’s asset.
It would be an error for Trin holders to reject this offer. I do not see the share price recovering this year personally, but TXP has plans and the cash flow( with Trin) to develop cretacious migrated oil (3 wells at $10m), and BA. It needs to diversify away from gas as gas prices are fixed and negotiated rather low in Trinidad. Oil is unlikely to drop as Russia is not going to stop, and Iran supports it. I suppose if China invaded Taiwan there could be a trade embargo which could cause a global recession, but it is not that simple. Oil is likely to stay high for 3-5 years imo. The correct long term reduction of emissions is the way forward but in the short term Russia has kyboshed it.
So TXP need to get the oil out of the ground asap . And gas. Talking 3-5 years IMO.
Lexus. Who has added??

[flyinghorse1] 21/6/2024 20:28

Essentially this proposed deal has weakened the TXP share price, indicating that the initial terms are far to generous (in the market's view).
I suspect that on reflection its a sensible move to merge , but Trinity carries considerable offshore cost risk(Development capex/abandonments), TXP, future gas volume delivery risk.
Will TXP alter the terms of engagement even if Trinity share holders 71% agree--as a TXP shareholder I surely hope they do.
I guess the coming week will be interesting.
FH

[nocents] 21/6/2024 10:52

I agree.
Am interested to know who has increased shareholdings though? Gavin White at 7.5%??

[lexus880] 21/6/2024 07:37

I can't see being voted down, especially since some major shareholders have increased their stake—some have even doubled it.

[nocents] 20/6/2024 22:19

It’s more a case of looking at TXP and asking if it is the sort of company I would want to be invested in , versus Trin. Both produce significant FCF, but only TXP can make use of the huge tax losses.
The market, especially AIM, always beats down a share. It wants us to loseconfidence and sell cheap. It is not interested in fundamentals . Especially AIM.

[aqc888] 20/6/2024 21:27

Why is the market so pessimistic? Previous pessimism has been correct. However a stopped clock is right every now and then - and Trinity has been so wrong so often let’s hope this time it’s different! (Oh dear 🤞)

[nocents] 20/6/2024 19:37

If it is voted down, it will slump and the BOD wiill have no plan and not need to return anything to shareholders, whilst rewarding themselves. They have proved themselves incompetent and greedy. Too late to vote now anyway.
It would be rewarding to see them kicked out with no undeserved remuneration package,but I think Trin would be broken up and sold if the vote fails. But why would it fail?

[nafafa] 20/6/2024 17:47

Hopefully this will be voted down and management will then be directed to deliver in the best interests of shareholders or face being kicked without a compensation package.

[lexus880] 20/6/2024 14:50

added 11500 fingers crossed all goes well.

[princebuster2] 20/6/2024 10:55

Trin…the gift that keeps on giving. Or taking as the case may be!.

[masterfly7] 20/6/2024 09:38

Over 30% down from the implied 61.9p valuation of the offer

[nocents] 19/6/2024 18:35

Rather a dismal share performance here. Drifting increasingly down . As is TXP. No news on shallow bopd at Jacobin ( as repeatedly promised by these charlatans), and no news on Cascadura. We are told that Txp has significant FCF( as we were told by Trin) and their Capex for ‘24 is significant. And capital allocation was mentioned as a carrot I guess. Txp has managed to grow far more than Trin, but I am sensibly wary of spin merchants now.Wonder how others feel.
The merger is necessary. Trin will not necessarily pay shareholders out of any profits it made. And it only has BA to rest hopes on.
Silence here. But I don’t see the point of Trin existing any more really. Same crew would be running it.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 20:22

Yes certainly. Shareholders are collateral damage,an irritation.Managements tend to be greedy and often void of personal responsibility. There are some companies not like that.Trin was not like that before Bruce died. He once spent an hour on the phone to me and I even got a card in hospital. It died with him. We are dispensible and the same goes for TXP. Big fat salarieas all-round plus a big parting gift. . It does turn my stomach a little. I expect no different from TXP. We really don’t matter at all.

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 20:10

Unfortunately I think management of all listed companies are looking for high risk/high reward ventures. Success means large bonuses, failure on the other hand has minimal consequences. Look at trinity management, had jacobin succeeded they would have had significant financial rewards. Whilst now it’s failed they’ve still picked up their inflated salaries and are being given parting gifts when merged with txp.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 20:00

I’d agree. Perhaps PB could do what they never did at Trin-market it.
I have voted for the merger as I feel ling term it is probably a better business. Trin just didn’t seem to know what they were doing.
Paul Baay? I will remain neutral as I feel shareholders are collateral damage and I don’t believe all the capital allocation spin. Trin said the same. Shareholders need a 10%+ group in my opinion.
Still….end of Sep is a long time off.
Where is update promised on Jacobin which will eventually pay for itself. Uppdates on Cascadura and Coho?
Darkness ( radio slen e) falls across the land.

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 19:49

I get the impression that Galeota isn’t very saleable. With Galeota being Trinity’s most important asset it makes sense exploiting this with TXP.

Anyone interested in Galeota would have approached Trinity by now? Nafafa, your approach is a very safe and conservative one. Many investors in Trinity however probably have a higher risk appetite..

It all comes down to viewpoints of the competence of TXP to exploit value and succeed.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 18:40

I take that lSt point seriously.I believe Txp have a fairly high risk approach to drilling it seems.And I feel in my bones that shareholders are dispensible. So it’s a tough one. Yes Trin could return cash to shareholders but would they? They don’t seem to hold us in high regard. I do wonder if risk-return would be better as PB is fairly gung-ho and a spin-merchant. So it’s a tough call. The larger shareholders seem to rate it a better prospect though, and do you really trust Trin ?
I do agree that Bruce would not have sold his baby for a ridiculously low price . I just think they don’t know what they are doing and JB was never up to the job tbh.

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 18:18

AQC, I doubt it very much as I don't believe it suits their agenda

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 17:55

Nafafa, you make a sensible point in my view. It would require a successful sale of Galeota and other assets, I presume the M&A advisors have already explored this option?

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 17:22

Nocents, you miss the point. In my opinion Trin should not be putting money into developing new assets. Instead their focus should solely be on their low cost base production for the next 5 to 10 years, which would permit them to return considerable amounts of cash to shareholders. I do not doubt that in terms of a risk return profile this provides a better solution for shareholders than being acquired by TXP. I have no doubt that were Bruce still about he would not have had anything to do with such a proposal.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 15:30

I think it will go through.
And I also think it should go through.
Trin do not have the cash to develop its own assets. They should have sold Galeota when we suggested it last year. I kept on at them, as did Ab. Nope. Own agenda. I don’t believe they would have agreed to this if not for the large shareholders.
Yes Trin generates cash, but it had no plans until BA and frankly botched up just about everything possible from unfortunate hedging to a stream of dry wells for goodness sake.
I don’t think the BOD were ever fit to run the company when Bruce died. He once told me face to face that he would never let Trin be sold on the cheap.
All I am trying to do is make clear that these CEO’s often get drunk on power and take risks they shouldn’t. I encourage a shareholder group over 10% to keep Some sort of pressure on. I have been on the TXp thread but left after too many vacuous comments( decent enough people but I want to discuss the company!!). Che7win is very optimistic( and I hope he is right) but I also know that CEO’s don’t generally give a toss about shareholders unless they have to. Sad but I would say generally true. The TXP mob are not hugely impressed and they must have their reasons.
But I think the merger should go through. We will certainly see Trin slump if it does not!