Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 14/5/2024 07:58

Hard hats on.

[nocents] 13/5/2024 22:41

I did doubt another suitor could be in the wings. But this ‘merger’ suprised me anyway.
I, too, am well over 50% 5down at the theoretical 62p. I think my ave. is £1.28. But lost far too much along the way by taking it out in chagrin and losing it completely elsewhere.A fool and his money are soon parted. I did not realize the stock market was so corrupt. Parliament, yes!! And I fell for very well-planned frauds.Makes Rishi’s, Liz’s and Boris’s antics look so low-ball and frankly quite stupid in comparison.Well-planned stock market fraud. Now the norm.
But not Trin.
Thanks for the heads-up on Nick Clayton. I feel that Trin have very much done the best thing, following their worst mess-up since hedging, or maybe since ElDorado in 2014. That cost $10m and was as dry as a bone. And thanks re. the EGM. Any day. I assume we have one vote per share and not show of hands!!

[andrewbyles] 13/5/2024 19:00

It’s perhaps worth noting that Nick Clayton was in Trinidad last week meeting with the Energy Minister to explain the Touchstone takeover - see the photograph in this tweet:

I’m happy with the takeover (although at 62p I’ll be down by over 50%, it presents the best opportunity for near-term recovery). If anyone thinks there’s another deal waiting in the wings, I’d suggest that’s unlikely now. Trinity’s had 6 months to find someone else and is clearly now preparing for government approval of this deal. I expect the general meeting will be announced any day now (we might get the annual results this week and receive the date with them; since it’s not the annual general meeting, my understanding is that only 14 days’ notice is required).

[nocents] 13/5/2024 17:47

The Hummingbirds are a series of onshore wells which were targeted by Trin last year. Jacobin was the first, but they were too adventurous and went too deep, obverspending and not appreciating the geological hurdles enough, mainly the almost inevitability of sand and a smaller available oil deposit mixed with fluids. It was hyped to be an almost cert., which was a serious error. That’s when Txp jumped in at the opportunity of a cheap buy last October. Trin could no longer afford to drill the remaining Hummingbirds and focused on Buenos Ayres, a virgin well, for early 2025 drilling. Already applied for environmental licence well in advance.
There is no reason why the Hummingbirds should not be targeted at shallow, i.e. Forest/Cruse levels where most of Trin’s oil comes from . Two thirds.
Txp would do well to play safe and drill cheap and shallow post seismic surveys. They can use Trin’s hi-tec seismics. Trin wasted money going deep in Jacobin. Over $10m I think. They should have stuck to what they know best. Forrest shallower Jacobin bopd output due in 10 days. No reason why it should not be reasonable as plenty of oil found there.
I am curious why no date for AGM yet. Is it possible that someone else is interested? I always doubted it but news on the AGM is well overdue.

[davidblack] 13/5/2024 16:54

Can you please elaborate on the “Hummingbirds?”

[nocents] 13/5/2024 11:35

Certainly so. I just think we can read too much into Perenco and understandably hypothesise until the cows come home. I do it too. A JV would yield more long term but might mean fundraising if cash generation is not enough. I want no more cash raises. Placings, Rights Issues, Bonds..whatever. Galeota is a money-muncher and suitable for biggies like Perenco. I would prefer to see Txp menetise assers, stabilize cash and cash flow, maximise cost cuts, and concentrate on onshore. There is plenty onshore and the capex is usually cheaper , with no piping nor storage. Ambition can dilute a company. I would like Baay to menetise Galeota and use capital to reduce debt and fund BA and shallow Hummingbirds which have been seismically ultra-analysed. My preference, but I am open to persuasion on evidence or solid argument. If you are right that they wouldn’t get much for Galeota( I don’t know) then fair does.
I am surprised re.AGM too. Unless they have had another bidder.

[davidblack] 13/5/2024 11:24

Nocent I agree on Galeota. But if TXP look to sell it I doubt they would get much of a price. Rather hoping they might JV it and inject say $10m over two years into that JV with Perenco taking the lead? That way both parties can relax and maximise the upside. It’s an option for TXP in a way that it isn't for Trinity who couldn’t easily do a deal on their prize asset.

Surprised the EGM vote hasn’t been notified yet.

[nocents] 13/5/2024 07:44

I think that answers the question about the govt.position. They clearly welcome the merging of the companies as I expected. I see no issues regarding the courts or government. Nor the shareholder vote. It is in everyone’s interest to pass this.

[andrewbyles] 13/5/2024 01:21

With regard to government approval, “On May 9, [Stuart] Young [Minister of Energy] met with executives of Trinity Exploration and Production PLC at the ministry head office in Port of Spain.

“At this meeting, Trinity executives provided an update on the finalisation of the company’s agreement to its "all-share acquisition" by Canadian-based, Touchstone Exploration Inc.

“The acquisition will facilitate increased investments into TT from the combined company’s cash flow into its increased production base.

“Additionally, post-acquisition, the existing shareholders of the locally-based Trinity Exploration and Production PLC, will own approximately 20 per cent of the Canadian firm’s shares as each "Trinity" share will be converted to 1.5 "Touchstone" shares.

“"TT remains welcoming of international investments in the industry," Young said.

“Young added that he looks forward to a successful conclusion of the transaction and hopes the arrangement would result in the increased exploration and production of hydrocarbons.”

With regard to Touchstone’s commitment to Trinidad, watch the interview with Paul Baay that I posted above: Touchstone is only interested in doing business in Trinidad and wants to reduce its cost base so as to increase its profit.

[aqc888] 12/5/2024 21:05

Less competition for licenses they sell could be one such reason? Perhaps they’re worried TXP could focus attention on a new region, from their Canadian HQ, once all the very best Trinidad options are exhausted? Perhaps the Trinidad gov feels they have greater influence over smaller local companies? Perhaps politically it’s not a winner for the government for some reason (job cuts, foreign company) who knows? Things have rarely gone to plan here. But whilst I expect it to be passed by shareholders and the government, I wouldn’t say it’s for certain, and the current share price would agree to that.

[nocents] 12/5/2024 20:44

This merger/takeover would suit the govt. well as it makes more production far more likely. More production means more govt. revenue. There would have to be a bizarre reason for courts or govt. to block this.

[aqc888] 12/5/2024 19:58

I should think this will go through too. However, given nothing seems to go to plan here, I’d give it a mere 80% chance. Could be blocked the government, or a large shareholder with a different plan. Those recent SPT tax reforms probably came with various expectations and rationale that we don’t know the full story of.

[nocents] 12/5/2024 18:07

I agree with all of that. I already suggested the sale of Galeota assets made sense and Perenco are on the border, but we can’t know. These things all need a govt. stamp of approval. They rejected Txp’s bid for West Coast Trin in 2015, but I think they are more oil-savvy and oil-proactive now. In 2019 the PM was overtly antagonistic to the oil plunderers( quote!) in the October budget. Post SPT reform, and I think they are much more oil-aware. Especially as the govt. oil company lost so much money before Heritage was founded.
I listened to Baay’s interview live last year. He is generally cautious and realistic re. oil drill chances of success.But he says he wants TXP in the Ftse 250 ! So assuming it is not just marketing-talk, he has ambition for the company.
I absolutely think Trin shareholders should vote this through. For their own sakes. It would be folly not to. And the default vote is fine!
I have been in zyrin over 10 years. Total roller coaster and I should have left my money in it rather than have been defrauded by other quasi-companies omn AIM.
I feel that Baay has some kind of blueprint plan for TXP and it may unfold accordingly. And yes, offshore asset sales make total sense. Onshore is cheaper. Plenty of cheaper scope in BA and Hummingbirds and Perenco already produce from the Galeota area. It would fund drilling onshore and even pay off debt which I would support, but directors too often fail to do.
Either way , voting this through is the only sensible option with prospects.
I am not sure when the vote is tobtake place though. I thought it was at an AGM within a month. Maybe I have that wrong.

[andrewbyles] 12/5/2024 17:23

I’m looking forward to becoming a Touchstone shareholder and think this deal makes a great deal of sense for both companies.

Paul Baay seems to set out much of his thinking behind this deal in this interview from last September:

The particularly relevant bit is the part about cutting costs, which is exactly what this transaction will achieve.

Also note his lack of interest in offshore assets. I wonder whether that points to a further deal concerning Trintes/Galeota once the transaction completes. I still wonder whether Perenco might be interested in acquiring the full or partial interest.

I see people questioning whether Trinity’s shareholders will vote in favour of the deal. It seems to me most likely that the 75% level will be reached. Assuming all the large shareholders vote in favour (most have already given irrevocable undertakings), with the directors shares’ and mine there’s already 52% in favour. I’d be very surprised if half of the remaining shares will vote “no”, especially as most are probably in nominee accounts that will vote “yes” by default as it’s a recommended offer.

[dirty_diggin] 11/5/2024 02:22

Try again. It's worth it. Knowledgeable posters, some with good contacts, and a little bit of snappy banter.https://discord.gg/EVk8dkDw

[nocents] 10/5/2024 21:41

Hi David
I tried to join discord last wedk. Took ages and failed! They seem to want to know my shoe size ( not really).
I agree about people being useful re. the 20% of Trin. I have been in Trin since 2013 when it was Bayfield and did a reverse takeover. Much has changed. The assets are what you will need to know about as al the BOD and NED are going.
I think the focus on oil will be healthy. Many people are new here. Ab is meticulous with his research and detail , although he was overpptimistic like me about Jacobin. I think the Forest/Cruse level drilling, Trin’s expertise, will yield reasonably well though. Details of bopd in 2 weeks.
Trin’s cash will help. Cash generation too. Txp has debt. Txp would do well to be cautious with drilling targets, stay shallow , and try to sell Galeota to Perenco. My opinion. Txpnitself could end up being taken over in a few years. Because of Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and even Taiwan/China, oil prices are set to remain very firm for a very long time.
The US elections Nov 5th are a particularly unsettled period.

[davidblack] 10/5/2024 13:06

AQC absolutely not in the simple way people seem to have suggested. Primarily they need to be used against the assets that generated those losses, how wide that goes is unclear plus maybe some transfers via management charges and asset consolidations but not an on mass “No tax to pay for the next four years.”

[davidblack] 10/5/2024 13:04

Nocents and others you are all invited. Apparently 20% of TXP’s market cap could be about a bunch of assets that TXP folk know sod all about so having people who do would be a plus.

The board is reasonably polite and there are a couple of separate spots to dump hobby horses etc without clogging up the whole site which is an issue with Advfn whose software seems the same as it was two decades ago when I first joined here.

[nocents] 08/5/2024 17:11

Thanks for that update. It helps. The free cash flow is important as we come from a no-debt company, and Txp have debt to service. Reducing that debt ought to be a priority. Some of us saw what it did to Trin in 2016. A global recession , which can never be ruled out ( Covid arrived only 4 years ago!!) puts many companies out of play.
The BA award should be soon and environmental licence Q3. Then roads will need to be built before drilling, assuming subsurface info is positive.
Jacobin bopd due in 2 weeks. Will be interesting.

[nocents] 08/5/2024 17:08

Thanks for that update. It helps. The free cash flow is important as we come from a no-debt company, and Txp have debt to service. Reducing that debt ought to be a priority. Some of us saw what it did to Trin in 2016. A global recession , which can never be ruled out ( Covid arrived only 4 years ago!!) puts many companies out of play.
The BA award should be soon and environmental licence Q3. Then roads will need to be built before drilling, assuming subsurface info is positive.
Jacobin bopd due in 2 weeks. Will be interesting.

[davidblack] 08/5/2024 15:46

Txp have been producing cash since September. They commenced drilling with that cashflow in January and have drilled two big drills, two smaller, are building a road, bridge and new platform for four more holes at Pad B. The drilling has now paused possibly because of the bid but also likely to refill the coffers at $750k a week. Hopefully that cashflow will double by Christmas and then some of it deployed on the Trinity assets?

[nocents] 08/5/2024 14:38

hxxps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/trinity-touch-stone

Worth reading.

I am not sure that the large holders of Trin’s shares would have given their irrevocable support to Touchstone if they were as defeatist.
Also worth listening to the Trin presentation again. Trin were unable to unlock the assets and believe that TXP can. Worth noting the substantial growth of FcF for TXP too. I am not saying fall for hype, just not to throw the barrel of babies out with the bathwater. Txp are not Trin. The analysis above makes some very salient points.

[skyship] 08/5/2024 13:38

Sold more at 54p yesterday and today. Now down to less than 3% allocation...

To my mind everything we see of value in TXP is what we saw as value with TRIN; yet the share price slumped beyond comprehension.

The combined group will have a lot going for it; yet the share price could well continue its inexorable downward drift. DRIFT? - actually more of a plunge!

[nocents] 07/5/2024 23:01

With Trin it came down to mistrust. Being ignored, fed fables etc. And the coup de grâce was the taking awayvof the “ set in stone” dividend. The rise to 53p is not a valid excuse. It was at £1.25p just over a year ago. Mismanagement and shareholder neglect.
We need to see the $44m in the books. Is it forecast or already in the bank?
The 50% extra is a forecast. Trin forecast up to 700 bopd from Jacobin and got sand.
Believe nothing on AIM until it is flowing or in the bank.
JSEnever recovered from Montara storage failure and the February gas firld to replenish coffers?? The shareholder business is built on promises. Many many are not delivered. It’s why they say sell on the rumour.
I want this to work out. But I am not putting my head on the block of false promises any more. 4D took my life savings with its Cancer-fighting hogwash, POG promised shareholder value and the next week sprung a 15:1 Rights Issue to pay overdue bonds, Ncyt’s CEO absconded post covid with a massive bonus as the govt took them to court. That’s where my hard-earned naive money has gone. I would rather sell up than give it away to another set of empire builders on quicksand.
So, is this $44m in the bank or projected?
When do TXP declare the result of Cascadura gas flow?? Please let us know.

When do we hear of Jacobin’s Forest/Cruse bopd? End of May.
We (I) need to feel that TXP know what they are doing and have aplan. Trin didn’t on either score.
Any factual knowledge welcome please…
Thanks

[sleepy] 07/5/2024 21:44

1) is the 44m actual or expected?

2) how much good have Trinity’s oil and cash flow done for their shareholders?