Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 14:26

Let's hope they don't get the 75% shareholder acceptance required

[nocents] 14/6/2024 13:08

Court approves it initially. That’s shy it’s important to vote. They don’t count default votes in court and need to know enough shareholders approve. No idea about”lock up period”. What purpose?
Re. Cretaceous, I agree. I think Baay is getting too gung-ho. $30m for 3 wells!!?!
Stick to minimal risk. I am very wary of Mr. Baay and I have followed TXP since exit from Alberta. He is a good spin-doctor. I think shareholders ( if it goes through) should form a pressure group which makes sure they are looked after. Otherwise I think not. To be at 31p is a disgrace to be honest.

[masterfly7] 14/6/2024 12:57

If the deal does go through at the vote, is there a lock up period whilst waiting for approval?? Alluded to on the TXP board.

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 11:08

Flyinghorse, a very sound observation. Past experience has been to over promise and underdeliver! Based on their current share price performance, investors clearly do not have a great deal of confidence in TXP.The deal to acquire Trin is valued at shy of £18 million (.31*1.5 *38,000,000), and a substantial element of that is cash in the bank. I will reiterate, in my view, if Trin directors were to be instructed to solely focus on bass production, even allowing for a decline to 2,000 barrels per day, then £8 million a year could comfortably be returned to shareholders. That is an equivalent dividend of 20p per share, and of course there is the cash that could be distributed immediately. There would also be a huge savings in overhead to be achieved by kicking out those not directly employed in activities focused on delivery and sustaining base production and possible sale of non developed assets.Why would any shareholder in their right minds vote for this deal? It seems that many holders have all too easily been seduced by a baseless hope that TXP will deliver for them. In my view, a high risk and illogical gamble.

[flyinghorse1] 13/6/2024 20:56

The Cretaceous is over hyped in Trinidad IMHO. Its what the government want to hear, but its expensive to drill down there and as far as I know minimal(in scheme of things production).
I also doubt the 3D seismic (as its land based sources, will have the depth and frequency required to map it correctly to place a drill.
All IMHO.

[aqc888] 13/6/2024 18:22

How many of txp & trinity’s previous x10wells have met expectations? The answer to this question will probably be the most accurate forecast of their future together…

[nocents] 13/6/2024 13:50

Baay is right to look at drilling multiple wells in order to reduce risk of one dry well. However, these are $10m each. I , for one, don’t want another Jacobin. These are deep wells. For all the fcf to go on exploratory drilling carries financial risk. We know this from Trin. I would like some capital allocation as Trin stripped us of the “ set in stone” dividend. Txp should not become a frequently traded share…that is the death of share progress.
Take what is printed with much salt too. He may, if gas does not live up to expectations, look for another fund raise. Caveat TXP emptor I think.
As much spin as our present politicians, ‘lest we forget’ ( oops Rishi missed that line, was long gone!).

[che7win] 13/6/2024 12:56

htTps://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/touchstone-to-explore-deep-horizon-drilling/article_8a44a4ae-2865-11ef-84d6-8fa94c75c740.html

[nocents] 12/6/2024 17:53

Lol
It’s certainly cool here for June.
No you weren’t condescending at all! You just got us wrong!We have been through the mill with Trin-and me with other scam companies( Trin is no scam company)and I/we am/are very sceptical of promises. I doubt Mr. Baay has pur wellbeing in mind so I hope your figures turn out true in reality.

[che7win] 12/6/2024 15:50

Thank you nocents. I didn't mean any offense, and when I thought about it, I was condescending, so I apologise if I've caused offence.I get the skepticism too, I've lost my shirt as many times as you nocents, so you're right to question things.I'll go and cool off somewhere.

[nocents] 12/6/2024 14:45

Yes it was condescending, but “easy Tiger”. I don’t think he meant to be grossly rude. I was only mildly irritated by it, but simply because it is wrong. My emotions have wholly evaporated here, and I believe I see things more clearly than ever. Through a glass darkly ( the Bible I think. Che7win is only giving his point of view. I am not as trusting as him, having let myself be defrauded so many times and losing almost every penny through spin.
I will vote for this merger this week( one of my sons got married in Corfu last week so been away and come back to dreadful weather!) Trin should not , imo, go it alone. They are not competent. However, I would take pB’s comments as I take Sunak’s et al ( kilo of salt). These AIM CEO’s do not bear us in mind ( like politicians). What matters is their salaries. I however thank you Che7win for your info. I am just a seasoned cynic. Nothing would suit me better than a rise in TXP, but things rarely go my way.

[che7win] 12/6/2024 11:50

Last two posters, you are letting your emotion control your thought process.I said production for TXP would double again this year. You fail to realise that statement means it's happened in the past! TXP don't need to prove a thing, they are delivering. Don't let market prices make you think they are similar to TRIN. Back to the double again statement.Last year up to 31st Mar 23 they produced 2139 average daily volume. This year, up to 31st Mar 24, they produced 7015 daily production.That's a 227 percent increase in volume, it's actually a tripling of production.This year they have said they will end the year at 14500boep/d, from 7015 I make that a doubling from today's production. The wells are drilling and will be hooked up Q4 so not hard to achieve....

[nocents] 12/6/2024 10:56

Proof of FCF and proof of free gas flow (TXP) are not the same as promises. Of course Baay will promise a doubling in 2024 and again in 2025. He does what Sunak doesn’t-he plays politics correctly. He is not to be trusted, just as the Trin BOD were/are not to be trusted.
I think the share price would drop for Trin if it fell through-purely through AIM doing what it always does…disappoint.
I think any good Trin news will be hidden from us intentionally. Going it alone would certainly be a decent option, but we would not benefit from considerable Gand A savings, salaries/NED’s etc., £500k AIM admission, employee reduction, etc. We were scammed of our dividend” set in stone” which irritates me immensely, fooled ove Jacobin, not told promised Upper bopd by end of May so assume none, told it would eventually pay for itself etc etc. we were constantly having the wool pulled over our eyes and I can never trust the BOD again no matter what. Incompetent to say the least. But I, too, am immensely sceptical of Paul Baay. I would not trust him an inch. I certainly would not trust prospective Cascadura gas output just on initial pressure. It’s what Trin yarned to us about Jacobin.
I think we may have to suck up the loss of Trin’s autonomy, but go into TXP with a note of high caution. PB does not give a hoot about multiple temporary( or long term) investors. He is paid well and we are oh so very dispensible. Never forget this.
But if we reject the offer we would have to accept a share drop and an unwillingness to invest. Trin let themselves be bought for peanuts, which shows their absence of political and business acumen. Incompetence I am afraid, and grossly demeaning about us posters.
I won’t be sorry to see them go. They should frankly be ashamed of their mess-ups.

[pavey ark] 12/6/2024 09:27

Touching that you think the "worth" of a company is reflected in the value set by AIM investors.....especially "small oil" investors.

I can assure you I would be more than delighted if your dream scenario turns out to be correct but if you look past a few selected posts you will see that most TXP posters share my scepticism regarding management and their ability to deliver.....frying pan/fire for TRIN investors !!!???

Until TXP and their management come good (and it has been a long and expensive wait for their shareholders)then this is a risk for TRIN shareholders......running TRIN for cash is not a risky option....regardless of the share price.

If as you say some TXP shareholders are against this deal then it rather proves my point about AIM small oil investors.

[che7win] 12/6/2024 08:17

Next two Cascadura wells take TXP to 14500 boepd. The pressure from them was really high, they will start it very strong.Read the Oak Bloke article from yesterday, the truth is, if this deal doesn't go through for TRIN, it's share price will crash and I can guarantee TXPs would rise.

[pavey ark] 12/6/2024 07:53

That was the point I was going to make.
As it stands TRIN shareholders don't have to take ANY risks.....let things run as they are and return cash....sell Galeota (including Trintes) and return even more cash......sell the whole company and (you've guessed it) return even more cash

[aqc888] 12/6/2024 07:35

Che7win, the problem seems to be that drilling in Trinidad has not progressed as expected at Trin or txp lately. Trinity shareholders are worried a few more failed wells will result in a worse situation than they are currently in. After the Jacobin fiasco, Trinity holders are perhaps a little skeptical about Cascadura.

[che7win] 11/6/2024 22:15

Nafafa,
Be careful what you wish for, there are a quite considerable number of TXP shareholders that wish the deal wouldn’t go through, because it allows TRIN shareholders to ride on the back of TXP production doubling by year end again as Cascadura wells double production from there in Q3.

I think you have it the wrong way around, TRIN is short if cash, got potential assets that need cash, TXP will be throwing off 50m cash minimum next year and more so combined with the synergies, this is more needed by TRIN than by TXP.

As a TXP and TRIN shareholder, I have voted 100% for this deal with my TRIN shares.
100p will look very cheap for TXP by year end.

That Oak Bloke article says :

“The result of $37.4m synergy scenario is earnings of 12.8 cents EPS or 10 pence a share, putting TXP on a measly P/E 3.2 and P/FCF of 2.2. In other words for every £1 invested TXP is forecast to generate 45.5p of operating cash flow which it can put towards capex, dividends or debt repayments.”

[nafafa] 11/6/2024 15:36

Pavey, indeed it has been quiet on here, that's probably because regulars, including myself, have been checking out what posters on the TXP board have to say. That does not make for great reading and leaves me deeply concerned. It is clear that TXP are desperate to get hold of Trin cash - they carry considerable debt and it is far from certain that their new wells will deliver as they company anticipates. My view is that this deal presents a high risk gamble for existing Trin holders. I have no doubt that Trin shareholders would be best served by the business remaining independent and being run in the manner that I and others have previously suggested. I am voting against the deal.Regrettably, I will not be able to attend the AGM - I am away in Italy. This is unfortunate as I would have liked the opportunity to express my feelings about this whole business to the board. I doubt they would be prepared to take any notice, at least it would have provided me with a degree of self satisfaction.

[pavey ark] 11/6/2024 10:53

Gone rather quiet here so.......

Oil has perked up again and we are heading for H1 realised price of $70+ and no SPT.

H1 2023 it was $65 AND SPT was $3.3m !!!........the cash pile will be considerable !!

There is a very real case for going it alone and adopting the "Nafafa strategy" of simply running this down for cash returns.

No news from Jacobin but this does not surprise me ....bad new and they will not say....good news (even 100 bpd) and they will not want to be positive before the big sell off.....speaking of which... shouldn't we have had new on Touchstone's new development wells or are they waiting for their big payday...the TRIN cash pile ???

[flyinghorse1] 01/6/2024 21:29

Andrew -with due respect that tells us very little, I think the concepts had already been looked at by Trinity in the past from memory.

[andrewbyles] 01/6/2024 21:16

For the results of the Petrofac study, see the November 2023 presentation.

Here are the notes:

Here’s the page where video of the presentation can be found: