Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[horndean eagle] 18/6/2011 15:32

ftse index reshuffle shenanigans to blame. TRB, GLE, CC. all big winners after being booted out of various indices and purchased by others.

[simon gordon] 18/6/2011 13:30

Another bid?

Crystal Amber have added a million shares, is a 20% rise reasonable?

[davidlloyd] 10/6/2011 09:33

For information I notice TRB is going to be excluded from the FTSE All-Share Index in the Quarterly Review June 2011.
see :


DL

[davidlloyd] 10/6/2011 09:32

Double post.....

[napoleon 14th] 26/5/2011 16:21

Ying + Yang = neutral.
So much for the doomsayers.

The fundies here are more than sufficient to support the share price for investors (in ISA).
It won't take much to drive them up.
Punters are another story...

[alun rm] 26/5/2011 09:13

I think holders have taken it in the Ying Yang this morning.

[simon gordon] 23/5/2011 18:34

Danger,

For me it was this sentence:

"Whilst we are seeing slow demand for our schools advisory activities, our technology revenues continue to be resilient."

If the tone of the IMS had been upbeat and built on the constructive statement of the Prelims I wouldn't have sold.

In Chinese terms I want Yang in an RNS, the IMS had both Yin and Yang. Whereas the Prelims was all Yang.

[dangersimpson2] 23/5/2011 17:33

I'm a little surprised at the mostly negative reaction to an essentially 'in-line' IMS. Net debt was a little higher than anticipated but it was certainly flagged in the final results that the net debt figure at 31st Dec 2010 was flattered by the working capital position and that this would unwind. What were people expecting?

The reasons people have given for selling also don't seem to have suddenly appeared with this IMS and were almost certainly there when buying. If the issues mentioned weren't there then it's unlikely we could buy at the current fwd P/E ratio.

I agree that buying a stock for a potential bid situation is rarely a good strategy but personally I'm holding due to the potential of the remaining Education business delivering £10m PBT and decent cash-flow when the new group is streamlined, not any bid.

Different perspectives are what makes a market of course but forecast 2012 P/E of 6 and EV/EBITDA of 4 still looks achievable to me and more than prices in the risks mentioned imo. A better strategy to me seems to have a reasonable but not overweight holding in case a bid materialises but keep some cash back to buy on any weakness if no offer is forthcoming, when the share will look very good on a long term valuation basis.

What am I missing?

Danger

[interceptor2] 19/5/2011 15:06

Simon another great post and totally agree.

Have sold final holdings here for a small loss. No point in them cluttering up the portfolio, I try and keep the stocks I own to 14 max which I'm back to now having sold here.

I think this is the first time I have ever brought a stock because of a bid/special situation etc. There just isn't any point in holding a stock unless the newsflow is very positive imo. And I think if we are patient there will always be a positive RNS with words like exceeding and of course a company with solid fundamentals to invest in.

Regards ic2.......

[simon gordon] 19/5/2011 14:25

ic2,

I'm trying to wean myself from Special Situtations as they do become tense affairs due to the nature of the bet, I am getting more focused on "strong statements" because it does lead to a more tranquil life which is just as profitable. I was getting sweaty betty about this RNS and when I read it my appetite diminished and thus I cut.

CHART - dire if you've been in over last 12 months .
NEWSFLOW - intimation in RNS of a slowdown in one division, will this spread?
FUNDAMENTALS - public sector is number one client.

TRB doesn't tick any of the Holy Trinity, if Newsflow had been constructive this morning then the bet would have been more secure, this is the big problem with Special Situations, they are shrouded in heaps of doubt which just becomes a contamination to the portfolio.

[interceptor2] 19/5/2011 14:13

Good posts this morning. I looked on the trading update this morning as if I was a new investor to TRB, and would I be a buyer on that statement? The answer was no, but TRB would go on the watchlist and would be looked at again during H2.

So I did cut my holdings and will hold on with a much smaller holding that I feel more comfortable with. Just incase there is a bid.

Must admit I normally try not be influenced by bid/offer situations, and just try to invest in companies with really strong statements.

ic2....

[simon gordon] 19/5/2011 10:22

cfro,

Good post, think you're right, the risk / reward is not outstanding, if it falls through and H2 gets tougher the share could stay stuck in the 30s.

[simon gordon] 19/5/2011 10:18

Def,

Shore Capital - 17/3/11:

"Financially, the group should see profitability backed by positive cash flow, with net debt more than halved to c£10.0m with pension liabilities of up to c£12.0m also included in the disposal."

You could call IR to clarify if the balance of payments will take it to £10m.

===

I trimmed back my overweight position this morning as it looks to me like 15p maximum upside if a deal goes through and 6p downside if it doesn't. Not quite 3/1.

[cfro] 19/5/2011 10:15

Been giving this some reflection this morning after todays interim statement and have decided rightly or wrongly to sell up. Statement not bearish but not bullish either and at the end says it all imo with management not confident of a bid coming through.

If one looks back through the recent RNS's there has been an awfull amount of to-ing and fro-ing in the stock with the insti's buying and selling like crazy. There is even some short postions disclosed with both JP Morgan and Blackrock both having quite a number of shares short.

In my experience this usually points to the current 'price' in the market being about right and therefore i would guess that that the bidder is wanting a price of roughly where we are now or possibly slightly lower. So therefore i see little or no upside from here and every likelyhood of a dip in the share price as a bid falls through. Of course, i might be proved wrong so good luck to all other holders here.

I have stuck some of the procceeds into IDOX.

[defcon4] 19/5/2011 10:13

Tad disappointing net debt c.£20m ,higher than Simon Gordon was predicting c£8m, although further c£2m to come from sale to Capita.

[davebowler] 19/5/2011 09:55

19 May 2011

Tribal Group plc

Interim Management Statement

Tribal Group plc (Tribal), a leading provider of technology products and services to the education, learning and training markets in the UK and internationally, provides the following update on trading, covering the period from 1 January 2011 to date.

During the period, we completed the disposal of our Health and Government businesses to The Capita Group Plc (Capita). We also completed the disposal of the last of our Support Services businesses, Tribal Resourcing, to TMP (UK) Limited. As a result of these transactions, the business is now focused on the education, learning and training markets.

Trading in our continuing business in the early months of the year has been in line with our expectations, with revenue for the four months to 30 April 2011 five per cent higher than the comparable period last year. We have seen good growth in our service delivery revenues, underpinned by the successful delivery of our two inspection contracts on behalf of Ofsted, the second of which commenced in the autumn of 2010. Whilst we are seeing slow demand for our schools advisory activities, our technology revenues continue to be resilient.

During the period, we have secured a number of new contracts and extensions and the development of our international pipeline continues to be encouraging.

As previously announced, we have secured new technology clients in New Zealand (University of Otago and Wairiki Institute) and in China (Xi'an Jiaodang - Liverpool University in Shanghai). Earlier in the year we won a GBP4.6m EU-funded contract to support the implementation of Special Education Needs provision in Turkey. In the UK, we also won the NHS South West workforce development programme, a service which will now be delivered jointly with Capita following its acquisition of our Health business.

Our committed income levels remain strong. At the end of April 2011, total committed income stood at GBP181m, compared to GBP186m at the start of the year. At 1 May 2011, we had delivered or secured 78% of planned revenue for the year (2010: 81%).

As announced previously, following completion of the sale of our Health and Government businesses, a programme of cost reduction is being implemented to reduce overheads. This programme is proceeding well, and we expect to see the benefits of operating with a lower cost base in the second half of the year.

At the end of April, net debt was GBP20.5m, including the benefit of the initial net proceeds of the recently completed disposals. Following completion of the sale of the Health and Government businesses, we have agreed amendments to our banking arrangements, and Tribal is securely financed.

We announced in December 2010 that we had been approached regarding a possible offer for Tribal. Tribal remains in an offer period. There is no certainty that an offer will be made. Further announcements will be made as appropriate.

[interceptor2] 12/5/2011 16:27

Bid still holding firm at 46.5p, and the spread has narrowed to 46.5 - 46.75. I should of waited a day before topping up.

ic2....

[boros10] 12/5/2011 10:29

Intelligent investor is a great book and one to be read over and over again. In these days of momentum investing it reminds the reader of the importance of fundamentals which are the ultimate driver of value in the long term.

[interceptor2] 12/5/2011 10:13

I agree "One Up on Wall Street" was a poor read which I didn't gain much from. Zulu Principle was my first book and still a benchmark for me, but I think it's about time I read Intelligent Investor.

Apologies going off topic.

TRB - I notice every morning the spread increases on the offer to 49p, then usually narrows again if buyers haven't appeared. So as already mentioned, we could have orders to fill in the background?

ic2.....

[cfro] 12/5/2011 09:13

That divi's gone to pay some bills IC2.

....And what!! i cant quite believe my eyes! You havent read Intelligent Investor yet?...Jeeze IC2 That was my fifth ever book on investment i read, a very important read. And i've just finnished reading literaly last night my 75th book Come into my trading room by Alexander Elder. Mainly about technical Analysis but some great advice in there. Just about to recieve book number 76 - Free Capital By Guy Thomas. Looks a corker.

I dont like One Up On Wall street tho. One of the worst investment books i've ever read. Peter Lynch just strikes me of being just of these guys who just happened to be in the right industry, at the right time and so happened to pick the right stocks. The advice is terrible.

[interceptor2] 12/5/2011 08:28

cfro - FOUR thread 5th May

"At least i've had a lovely chunky divi added to my account today."

Surely you haven't spent it already? :~0

I read New Markets Wizards by Jack Schwager a few years ago, and often go back to re-read certain sections. I have just finnished reading One Up on Wall Street/Peter Lynch, it's not bad but for me it wasn't until the final quarter that it bacame more interesting. Peter Lynch is one of the few investors not to advocate any use of stops or targets, I wouldn't be comfortable investing this way.

My next book to read is the classic Benjamin Graham/Intelligent Investor, this should keep me quiet for a while.

ic2.......

[cfro] 11/5/2011 18:27

A truely inspirational quote from Stanley Druckenmiller in the brilliant investment book - New Markets Wizards by Jack Schwager.

I would love too top-up here guys but unfortunately im stuffed to the rafters in my folio. You wouldnt lend me 48p so i could just buy one more share?....OH go on! LOL :0))