Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 12/4/2011 09:36

Thanks for the rec. interceptor2, 'fink you're on a winner here! :0))

I bought some first thing @42.5p and fully agree with your above post. The only thing i will add is that i also agree with dangersimpson and think that 7p eps will more than likely be achieved for this Y/E 2011 and your 10p or more for next Y/E 2012. Either way this has a very cheap PE of 6 falling to 4.5.

If they can achieve similar margins like EDD and melorio which i say is extremely possible then earnings will explode.

[dangersimpson2] 12/4/2011 09:05

They state that today's disposal will be earnings neutral for 2011 so we are more likely to see the c7p consensus for this year. However 10p EPS does look on for 2012.

Cash-flow is good too. Last year they spent £5.8m capex (up from £4.9m in 2009), paid dividends of £4.3m, interest of £1.5m and repaid £3.8m of debt. With the reduced group and debt then I'd expect maintenance capex and interest to be significantly reduced leaving spare cash to invest in the remaining business, pay down debt further or distribute as dividends.

Danger

[interceptor2] 11/4/2011 19:17

I brought in here today for the first time since having TRB on my watchlist for two years.

I believe the disposal news today is significant, and it makes sense to concentrate on the profitable Education business. And with a much reduced net debt figure.

I have just finished working out what the future earnings are likely to look like for the Education Division.

We know how the Education Division performed last year. See below.

Revenue = £106.6m
Op Profit = £14.07m
Op Margin = 13.2%

Now Pearson which operate in the Education sector, but other areas also last year had Op Margin = 13.1% and Net Margins = 9.2%.

So I think it would be fair to say TRB could also achieve net margins of 9%.
Which would give the following results, for last year just on Education.

Revenues = £106.6m
Net Profit = £9.6m
Net Margin = 9%
EPS = 10.2p
PE = 4.2

Education Development had net margins of 24.4%, no wonder Pearson are in the process of taking them over.

Melorio had net margins of 17%, and were taken over by Pearson last year.

TRB are currently in talks that may or may not lead to an offer for the company since 17th December 2010. So as well as the fundamentals looking very attractive going forward, the chances of a company like Pearson could be very interested in TRB with a much cleaner balance sheet and a focused Education company now.

Heads you win tails you don't lose.

All imo and dyor etc etc.

Regards ic2..........

[nellie1973] 11/4/2011 17:47

Broker upgrade to buy today

[davidosh] 11/4/2011 12:07

I have been picking some up this morning on the news of the sale to Capita and concentration of the remainder of the business with minimal debt. There is a good post on TMF if any of you have any thoughts and want to reply on the thread...

[costanz] 11/4/2011 08:03

From quick read of release looks a positive deal for Tribal. Offloading underperforming divisions, using proceeds to reduce debt and focusing on the Education sector.

[zig4graham] 07/4/2011 15:34

Or maybe Capita will come back to bid for parts of the business? I can't believe that there is not more specualtive buying here, as news must be imminent

[jamesgkenny] 07/4/2011 10:17

Civica is the suitor then...

[zig4graham] 04/4/2011 13:24

Yes, there was a BUY tip in Friday's Independent. They stated that the share price was ignoring the potential upside from a possible sale of the company, having fallen by around 50% since October. The Independent also stated that recent reports suggested that Tribal may have received approaches for it's education and healthcare arms. Personally, i'm not sure where these 'recent reports' have come from as I was only aware what the company stated on 17/12/10 that they had been approached re a possible offer for the company - not part of the company. Maybe the Independent believes that bid news is imminent.

[ards] 04/4/2011 12:20

ic says fairly priced. i think good statement but management probably wont buy with offer as likely to be low ball. we could revisit 30 again as shorters pile in on bad news. however likely to see 60 in medium term as profits pick up with possible new bid driving higher. i think the main issue now is that company will not breech convenants and generating reasonable cash flow.

[jamesgkenny] 04/4/2011 10:10

anyone seen last fridays independent? trb tipped buy apparently

[ards] 01/4/2011 07:57

my feeling is that mnagement will reject bid as which self respecting manager wants to be managed by someone else. however given pretty good statement and low share price hit probably not to bad. market thinks the same.

[jamesgkenny] 31/3/2011 12:35

agreed ards
goodwill write down expected, what is the delay in announcing the takeover?
I am guessing that TRB want better value in the bid and are stretching the confirmed tenders inbox

[ards] 30/3/2011 07:53

pretty optimistic statement. revised banking facilities and gains across all areas. profit and divi down but we knew that. ce stepping down a hint that bid may go through however what on earth are they doing. it is the longest bid period I have known.

[jamesgkenny] 28/3/2011 11:42

results Wednesday so may announce news of bid at same time ?

[ards] 17/3/2011 16:42

drop today news tomorrow!

[jamesgkenny] 11/3/2011 08:20

3 months later you would think they have seen enough to have encouraged them to keep looking ie they would have walked by now....

[wcjan26] 08/3/2011 18:51

well the chart has flatlined. news one way or the other shortly i suspect

[ards] 07/3/2011 07:45

campany must still be on holiday after xmas break

[wcjan26] 31/1/2011 12:09

slowly ticking higher with a bit more volume

wonder if the takeover news is finally coming?

[ards] 20/1/2011 20:31

agree, only bad part was reassessment of goodwill. but with share price at current think this is broadly in price. this is third offer so maybe the buyer is serious.

[wcjan26] 20/1/2011 16:29

TS not bad. bought a bit on the back of that. buyer would be reassured i expect

[ards] 20/12/2010 15:46

I suspect that the same bidder has returned with revised offer. would not be suprised with a 75-80 bid initially going to 100p.