Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 02/11/2010 08:58

inevitable

[stoxx67] 02/11/2010 08:47

obviously didn't like what they saw....

my good lady used to work there.... she is a little sad that it looks like the end for them.. as she had many great years there...

however, many companies previously on the "gravy train" of public sector cash... will now find hard times...

[pugugly] 02/11/2010 08:25

DEFCON4 - 5 Oct'10 - 11:06 - 633 of 640

U wus rite - Like to call a bottom or now terminal ??

[wcjan26] 06/10/2010 12:59

no bounce...

[simon gordon] 06/10/2010 06:48

Telegraph - 6/10/10:

The company, whose work includes Ofsted reports for schools and training NHS staff, issued a profits warning after seeing "a significant contraction in demand for central government advisory work".

The shares dived 22½ to 56½p, valuing Tribal at £52.9m. Robin Speakman, an analyst at Shore Capital, cut his pre-tax profits forecasts for Tribal from £9.5m to £6m for this year after reducing revenue estimates by £6m to £172m. "This is a highly operationally geared company," he said, adding any drop in revenue would see a marked fall in profits.

He said year-end net debt could now be closer to £30m, rather than the expected £24m, while cost cutting could lead to "£4m to £6m of cash costs" in the second half. "I would not expect them to pay a final dividend now," he said, noting that could save £2.5m.

Tribal disclosed in August that it had received "preliminary expressions of interest" from unnamed predators, with speculation focusing on private equity, overseas bidders and possibly larger rivals such as Capita and Serco. Sources close to Tribal dismissed talk that the profits warning was triggered by bidders having limited access to its books. "Absolutely not," said one.

The City is nervous about companies with exposure to the public sector, not least after Connaught's collapse. But Mr Speakman stressed: "Tribal has the skills the Government needs to effect change in the public sector."

[napoleon 14th] 06/10/2010 03:52

I used to have some of these; lucky not to get back in, as I had considered...
I'd drop bid talks if I were the other party.Buy them cheaper 1 or 2 years hence!

[jon827] 05/10/2010 22:39

Profits warning then..

[ards] 05/10/2010 14:08

thought most bad news in price. obviously not. one thing to remember however is that even though it sounds perverse, probably in CE interest to paint black picture if they dont want taken over which I probably think is the case.

[scars] 05/10/2010 12:20

DEFCON I don't see any similarities with CNT, are yoou scare mongering?

[defcon4] 05/10/2010 11:06

Heightened state of alert! Profit warnings come in 3's!

Bid will be withdrawn and watch it plummet? Gov work might not be forthcoming, will debt increase if so.

IS there similarities with Connaught? Check the balance sheet, massive intangibles!

You have been warned.

[simon gordon] 05/10/2010 09:31

Can't say I'm impressed with management here as they updated the market only 6 weeks ago, you'd have thought they would have had a good insight as to future conditions and managed expectations accordingly.

Be surprised to see it go for more than 80p, if talks breakdown could be heading to the 40s.

[zeuseq] 05/10/2010 08:40

I think bidder will still offer 85-95p because current situation is short term and any bidder will be thinking 12-24months trb is a bargain.

[wcjan26] 05/10/2010 08:14

simon. difficult to say. stinker is the word. was one of my core holdings - stopped out.

[simon gordon] 05/10/2010 08:08

I'm out, real stinker of a trade. How much lower would it be if the bid talks hadn't collapsed?

[markie7] 05/10/2010 07:41

not good. I think everyone expected the slow down in public sector, but not the severity.

[robbie paul] 05/10/2010 07:39

Oh well expect a fall on opening, will the bid happen now, if so it will be lower than we hoped if at all. Short term trading not great at all, Next year should see an improvement though.

Will it be worth topping up if the share price falls to 50-60p?

Lowered my expectations/hopes for a bid of say 90-100p now.

[wcjan26] 30/9/2010 12:13

zeus; exactly why TRB is already trading at 50% discount to NAV and 35% of the typical exit multiple for takeover -- i.e. priced in, surely

[zeuseq] 30/9/2010 08:40

Government to meet suppliers to discuss cuts
Thursday, 30th September 2010
WORLD ECONOMY
FRANCIS Maude, the Cabinet Office minister, will hold discussions on Friday with major defence, IT and other equipment suppliers aimed at shaving billions of pounds from its annual procurement bill.

Companies such as Balfour Beatty, Carillion, Cisco Systems, Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG, Slaughter & May and Tata Consultancy Services are expected to be at the meeting, according to Sky News.

Some companies, including IT services provider Logica, have alread reached agreement with ministers on revised terms.

In a statement issued to Sky, Maude said: "Although renegotiating contracts in this way had never been done by government before, it has proved to be a success for all sides involved, particularly the taxpayer. Several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) have already been signed and we expect more to be signed over the coming weeks."

[wcjan26] 29/9/2010 16:30

simon. 48 days is not desperately long for a deal negotiation, especially if more than one party bidding. also, the due dil must be quite complex - on their contracts in particular

that said, i don't expect it is too far from news

[simon gordon] 28/9/2010 15:40

48 days since talks went public.

[wcjan26] 24/9/2010 15:50

my bet is on news one way or the other by next friday (1st)

[wcjan26] 23/9/2010 19:14

robbie. i'm with IG too, switched to them recently and OK so far - nice that they automatically adjusted the GSL for the XD for instance.

TRB is right at top of downtrend channel since Jan 09 - if it does manage to break that, it should rally to your target range anyway, just from technical move

a bid at 115p-125p would be a massive bargain for a buyer compared to comparable transactions over the long run, so i expect that the pause is to do with a disagreement over price. assuming TRB has advisors, they must surely be telling them to accept only something north of 150p.

imagine that is tricky for the buyer - time may be running out for them to get a low-ball past investors (assuming the spending review is not too disastrous) - on the other hand, imagine the DD you'd have to do on framework contracts and so on to establish how badly or not the target will be affected

one thing is for sure - even if the current bid(s) fail, someone somewhere will come out of this process with a pretty clear understanding of the true value of TRB, and it won't be less than 80p

[robbie paul] 23/9/2010 13:07

Out of interest which spreadbetter are you using, myself IG, i probably should of opened accounts with other spreadbetters if they cover Tribal so i could spread/set my GSL closer to the current price.

Aye the spending review October must be having a bearing on talks as there is a lot of uncertainty.