Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[robbie paul] 23/8/2010 11:29

Dipped toe in £150pp, does look cheap on forecasts, so i hope for bid of 125p or more. My timing on SWG was well timed/fortuitous after watching it for ages,.£200 pp 96p, made close to £40k for a few weeks wait.

[simon gordon] 23/8/2010 10:10

Top shareholders:

~Hermes 21%
~Caledonia 11%
~Sarasin 4.3%
~Schroders 4%

If TRB follows a similar path to SWG the next newsflow could be w/c 30/8/10.

SWG timeline:

Public approaches - 3/6/10

Publication of takeover figure - 24/6/10

[simon gordon] 20/8/2010 14:20

Fairfax - 19/8/10:

12/10
T/O - 190m
PBT - 13m
EPS - 10
DPS - 4.7p
Net Debt - 22.3m

12/11
T/O - 187m
PBT - 13.9m
EPS - 10.6
DPS - 4.8p
Net Debt - 16m

Tribal shares have risen on the back of a bid approach but still offer good value. Interim results were posted on 16th August 2010 and 2011 at worst are bumping along the bottom. Cost cutting kicks in fully throughout 2011. The key short term drivers of overseas, technology related Education work remain intact. This is an area of growth into the medium term. The significant potential in Advisory compares to the short term where profits in this segment are minimal. We are raising our 90p target to 97p primarily because of overseas wins, not directly as a result of the approach. In terms of takeout prices, the appropriate level would be usefully in excess of 97p.

[napoleon 14th] 19/8/2010 15:09

So it's a bye/buy situation.
Either a decent bid comes in, 125p min.,
Or buy for good prospects.

I used to have these many moons ago at twice the current price.

[milacs] 19/8/2010 08:39

Caledonia Investments own 63% of the shares. Clearly if they don't like the idea of a deal it won't happen.

M

[jdung] 19/8/2010 08:23

bid ? 100p-125p ??
but why the market does not think this way ? (now you can buy at 76p )
any news?

[zoolook] 12/8/2010 11:23

TRB isn't AIM listed.

[newswseller] 12/8/2010 07:54

Tribal Group receives bid approaches
Thursday, 12th August 2010
M&A
VICTORIA BATES
TRIBAL Group, which provides government outsourcing services and coordinates school inspections, saw its shares leap yesterday after confirming it had been the subject of a slew of takeover approaches.

The interest is thought to have come primarily from private equity companies, with Asia-focused New Silk Route (NSR) or larger rival Capita touted as potential buyers. Analysts said Tribal's budding Asian education software business would strike a chord with NSR's strategic focus on investing in Eastern markets.

Tribal's government business also looks attractive to bidders as the Aim-listed company positions itself as a leading consultant to the public sector, to help steer it through the slimming-down process prompted by the coalition's austerity drive.

"The company is very well-positioned to support public sector organisations as they undertake change and to participate in an expected acceleration of outsourcing opportunities that will contribute to the improvement in public sector efficiencies," Tribal said in an update yesterday.

Reports put the potential price tag for Tribal at around 100-125p a share, though sources close to the firm said a bid at that level would be viewed as relatively low-ball. Taking house broker Investec's year-end EPS forecast of 11.6p as a basis, a bid at 125p per share would put the company's valuation at under 11 times earnings – a marked discount to larger rivals such as Capita, which trades at over 17 times earnings.

"Tribal confirms that it has received preliminary expressions of interest which may or may not lead to an offer being made," the firm said yesterday.

[newswseller] 12/8/2010 07:54

Todays Telegraph

Elsewhere, Tribal Group jumped 16 to 82½p after it said it had received preliminary expressions of interest



Todays Independent

Healthcare sector bids for Nestor and Tribal

By Rebecca Glover
Thursday, 12 August 2010

Tribal Group, a healthcare and education consultant and outsourced services provider to the public sector, also admitted a takeover approach, which sent its shares soaring by almost a quarter.

Tribal admitted yesterday that it has been hurt by "the reduction in government spending on consultancy" but its shares reacted instead to news of a bid approach from an unnamed suitor. Market speculation in recent days suggested a private equity bidder, while large government outsourcing groups, including Capita, have also been touted.

[newswseller] 11/8/2010 18:58

Tribal Group (LON:TRB) (TRB, 79.25p, £74.26m), the provider of professional services to the public sector in the UK and worldwide, has received preliminary expressions of interest for the business, which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the company. We previously highlighted the low rating reflects the group's exposure to UK public spending cuts, which the group may benefit from an efficiency drive. We were buyers of the stock at 78p due to the 6.2% yield attraction. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

[ards] 11/8/2010 18:24

trb not going anywhere unless a bidder is north of 150. why should they sell, they have little debt and on a pe of 5 at minute. tell bidders to get stuffed.

[ashmok] 11/8/2010 16:51

I've always seen these as worth 100p minimum, which is why I bought quite a few a while back. It's also reasonable to think they'll do well in the long term, but I agree with billf2003, not up to 160p levels; that 125p will probably be more accurate.

[newswseller] 11/8/2010 12:19

125p

The spotlight was on Tribal Group today after its bosses revealed that suitors are circling the school inspector.

The whisper is private equity is interested in the consultancy group at a price of 125p a pop.

But other traders thought it was possible that one of its larger outsourcing peers could be a bidder, with Capita being mentioned.

Tribal said the expressions of interest are preliminary, and may not result in an offer being made for the group. Its shares shot up 13p to 77.7p.

Tribal added that trading in the short term has been affected by Government cuts in spending on consultancy work. However, in the longer term, Tribal is tipped to be one of the winners from George Osborne's axe, with the public sector turning to the company for advice on how to cut costs.

Traders reckon this is why a trade buyer might be interested, believing that a takeover of Tribal would give them exposure to a part of the industry which would prosper during the cutbacks.

[billf2003] 11/8/2010 11:47

At 80p the market cap is c £73M, with the company having c £26M in net debt, i.e. by my calculation, an enterprise value of c £100M.

Yet the business had £238M of revenue last year, with committed income higher that the same time last year. (At the end of April, committed income stood at £278m, an increase of 28% since the start of the year. At 1 May 2010, Tribal had delivered or secured 68% of its planned revenue for the year - 2009: 65%). In addition, the company has been through a painful (and deep) set of cuts in its costbase.

In any noraml environment, based on the revenue line, one would have thought of an enterprise value of c £200M. But with the pending government cutbacks, and the resulting lack of confidence, I suspect any take-out will be substantially less than £200M. Let's hope for more than one bidder and that competition gets the price up above the 100p mark, although I doubt that it will reach the 160p that I think Tribal is worth.

[cool runnings] 11/8/2010 10:24

115-125p PE

[mick33] 11/8/2010 09:53

Anyone care to speculate on what a possible take out would be ?

[webb1] 11/8/2010 09:33

Nobody see fit to comment on this? Not a surprise, but wish I'd placed more loot on it!

[webb1] 06/8/2010 16:36

Likely to be a negative outlook I would imagine given cuts, notiwthstanding what may have passed sfor half year. That is likely to play detrimentally on share price

[southfly] 06/8/2010 12:42

Interim results on 18/08/2010.
Less than two weeks time.
On a prospective p/e of under 6 and a dividend yield of over 7%.
TRB is looking quite cheap at the moment.

[wcjan26] 20/7/2010 19:37

"I think there are some opportunities ahead with the restructuring of the NHS"

no kidding. tribal got a direct namecheck on question time last week when george galloway accused the coalition of privatisation of the NHS and pushing work to their friends in the city

fwiw!

[chrisfoster] 20/7/2010 12:58

I bought in here today. I think there are some opportunities ahead with the restructuring of the NHS, i.e. with the moving of commissioning from PCTs to GP-led consortiums. The GPs will want to get it right, and will have little experience of anything on this kind of scale, after all they are only small businesses really. Plus all the support that goes with it, for instance IT systems and infrastructure, building and accommodation, etc. Reasons to be optimistic if you're in.

[geoffrey] 20/7/2010 12:45

Long time since any comment on this board! Signs of uptick today?
Restricted market because of Caledonia holding but now looks solid to me and would welcome opinions.

[wcjan26] 06/5/2010 09:26

made my 'election day' trade today !

"buy the bullets" strategy.

same on IRV