Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[chester] 26/3/2012 09:17

Yes, nice bounce. It seems not selling was the correct choice.

[illtud] 26/3/2012 09:03

As a beginner at this, I am bemused by the fact that while everyone is selling like crazy, the share price is still going up. No matter, I am hanging on hoping that my research is sound and the the price will go higher.

[illtud] 22/3/2012 14:23

At the risk of seeming contrarian, I have difficulty with the logic of selling after a share price has dropped or waiting until the share price has gone up again before buying back in. I just cannot see the profit in that. Surely, if you think a company's shares are a good buy, then what is wrong with riding out the swings and saving the selling and buying costs.
In the case of Tribal, I can only see an improvement in their situation in this report.
If anyone thinks I am wrong, I would be only too pleased if they would tell me how and in what way so I could learn from them and improve my thinking.

[illtud] 22/3/2012 11:42

This morning, Canaccord genuity posted a buy on Tribal with a target price of 85p. I think I might hold and wait to see what happens

[illtud] 22/3/2012 09:58

Hmm, I think that there are a number of factors at play here so I haven't sold. Yet. Not least is the fact that after the initial early morning panic, share prices often bounce back because the market overshoots. That often makes first thing in the morning a time to just watch what other people are doing and see what happens next.
The price has already started to go back up so I think I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings and decide then. Share prices often recover the day after a panic. I think that if I do sell tomorrow I should get a better price than if I sold now.

[simon gordon] 22/3/2012 09:07

Neg,

Thank you pointing that out, I hadn't taken a close look at previous utterances, was in it more as a momentum trade.

[mick33] 22/3/2012 08:58

" We believe that TRIBAL is well positioned to grow its existing strong customer base in the uk , and to take advantage of a SIGNIFICANT range of international oppurtunities .. "

[interceptor2] 22/3/2012 08:50

I agree Simon and sold my holding to play safe. At best I can see any reason for the share price to advance until a trading update in the 2nd half.

I will stay sidelined until then.

ic2...

[neg] 22/3/2012 08:45

Simon Gordon - same as this year I think, half year results in August showed adjusted PBT of £2.8m and final results this morning showed adjusted PBT of £9.5m, so last year was heavily weighted towards the second half.

[simon gordon] 22/3/2012 08:11

I sold my holding this morning, I don't like the 2nd half weighting utterance:

"Our current trading is in line with our expectations for 2012, which will continue to be a period of investment in our products, people and our international presence. As a result of seasonality in our business, and our programme of investment, we anticipate our profits will be weighted towards the second half of the year, and Tribal has good potential to make further progress over the medium term."

I will watch for contract news and confirmation that the 2nd half will be met, sometimes the 2nd half utterance is a subtle warning that the company is struggling to make the full year target.

[illtud] 19/3/2012 10:29

Just some people taking profits, I think. I am holding onto my Tribal shares, for now. What I am not sure about is whether they are a long term hold or a short term punt. The business seems to be doing very well, at the moment, but the share price might drop at the merest hint of bad news.
On the other hand, if it does, then that might be the time to buy more, provided everything else still looks ok.

[paddyberry] 19/3/2012 09:21

Funny mkt reaction tho

[dangersimpson2] 19/3/2012 08:57

Unlike some previous contract announcements this is a Regulatory RNS not an RNSNON which means that these contract wins should have an impact on revenue and profit rather than just good publicity.

[interceptor2] 19/3/2012 08:42

Agree, nice announcements today, I did add to my holding this morning.

ic2...

[nurdin] 19/3/2012 07:46

Nice contract wins :o)

[illtud] 12/3/2012 13:10

ic2 I believe that, at the moment, Tribal is a good buy because, I think, that the restructured company is worth more than their market capitalisation.
I think that what Tribal have announced they have achieved so far, in terms of restructuring and obtaining new, good quality, business should mean that their financial reports will be good in 2012 and possibly, even beyond that.

[interceptor2] 12/3/2012 10:02

Brought half of my position back here, and hopefully can add more once results are out.

As I said before, I think I sold my holding for the wrong reasons. But in investing I believe if you make a mistake you just have to hold your hands up to it and correct the mistake.

Pleased to be holding again.

ic2..

[interceptor2] 29/2/2012 17:06

Illtud, I think you are correct to keep the faith here, on reflection I maybe shouldn't have sold and the more I look at TRB the less I think they would be effected by issues that effected ILX.

I always intended to buy back in here, it might just be earlier than I was planing.

ic2...

[illtud] 29/2/2012 11:18

ic2, I have been following your recent comments about Tribal and thought you really had a grasp of their situation so I was surprised when you said you had sold.

As I see the picture, Tribal has a good solid base in the UK and has expanded very nicely abroad with little or no involvement in Europe and nothing in the Eurozone. They have long term contracts with some high profile prestigious clients and claim a good demand for their products with high barriers to entry for competitors. They have reduced their debt considerably and seem set to pay it off early. They also have a highly qualified and very experienced management team who, hopefully, will not repeat the mistakes of their predecessors.

Tribal shares are as I thought they would, dipping between announcements. I feel that when the interim announcement comes out on the 22nd March, there will be another jump in share price, followed by another in April when the full financial report for 2011 is released and yet another when the first half year results for 2012 are out.

In between the announcements, I think, the price will probably dip a bit.

Somewhere along the line the market should wake up to the fact that Tribal is no longer quite the dog it used to be and start taking an interest. There may even be an offer at some point.

Whatever happens, I am hanging on to my Tribal shares for now because I think the price hasn't finished moving upwards yet.

[interceptor2] 24/2/2012 22:17

FWIW, I do think TRB will continue to do very well. In truth I was a little jumpy after LRM yesterday and the fact that I didn't act quickly enough on the Fidessa warning the week before.

Agree there is no excuse for releasing trading updates late in the afternoon.

AVAP, I'm looking at them and they look good, but I'm not sure yet.

ic2...

[killieboy] 24/2/2012 19:06

January's Trading Statement "..... profits before tax... will be significantly ahead...". All bodes well 22 Mar (keep the faith!!)

[cfro] 24/2/2012 18:14

I echo IC2's thoughts. Dont know if one can read across from ILX or not but there could be a slowdown in the education sector. I sold purely because the share price had stalled and no other reason really. I made a very quick 14% gain, so pleased with that in these horrid markets.

I must say that ILX releasing a profit warning late on a Friday afternoon is rather naughty. What with LRM as well there really ought to be a law against it.

IC2, have a look at AVAP mentioned on the Zulu bb. I reckon there is decent upside to be had there over the next few months.

[illtud] 24/2/2012 17:33

The comments are interesting. Tribal specialises mainly in school inspections and admin systems for Universties and Colleges, although they do also do computer based training programmes.

I am staying with them for the moment.