Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 20/3/2014 14:07

Hi cfro, thanks and good luck!

Momentum can breed more momentum in any industry. I remember well TRCS having a stream of contract wins about 18 months ago, whilst 'looking' fully valued and the share price rising as a consequence.
Not saying for a minute that will happen here, but the management sure are doing something right hence my stake

GLA

[cfro] 20/3/2014 13:59

I have opened an initial position this morning on the strength of the significant contract announcement.

I have to disagree with you goldenmember from my initial research. I see a number of high growth markets in which to sell their products into, a great management team, in vogue products, strong cashflow etc.

A forward rating of 14 to 15 is not anywhere near expensive for a company set to 'atleast' double earnings over the next year or so. And as for margins, well we will have to wait and see what they say in the next results statement.

PJ1 - good to see you here and doubling up your holding.

[goldenmember] 20/3/2014 13:45

It is the margin we really need to understand. Having a production capability is fine so long as it is kept busyy on core business. If you have to take non core business to keep people busy then a) they are not selling enough vehicle telematics units and b) it is likely to be low margin!

Every other TSP outsourced their hardware development! This is the equivalent of SAP buying a computer manufacturer to devlop their own hardware!

[pj 1] 20/3/2014 13:27

goldenmember 20 Mar'14 - 11:54 - 170 of 170 0 0

Having bought and sold Companies in this space for years, the real valuations come from Telematics Service Provision and not manufacturing! Look at Webtech Wireless in the US which is a bigger moore successful version of TrackM8 and they have been struggling for years. Their current market cap is around 2 x revenue and that is on a more pumped market! This business is also now becoming distracted by general hardware manufacturing (which is the CEO's background and comfort zone) but this is not a recipe to deliver real shareholder returns.

IMHO, this is currently significantly over priced and in reality should go through a "take private" as I can't see it delivering solid growth and returns.
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I note your commenst gm, and I havent gotten my head around this Co properly yet but from todays RNS ''This hardware order is part of a recently signed supply agreement that is expected to lead to revenues in excess of GBP1m per annum.''?

[goldenmember] 20/3/2014 11:54

Having bought and sold Companies in this space for years, the real valuations come from Telematics Service Provision and not manufacturing! Look at Webtech Wireless in the US which is a bigger moore successful version of TrackM8 and they have been struggling for years. Their current market cap is around 2 x revenue and that is on a more pumped market! This business is also now becoming distracted by general hardware manufacturing (which is the CEO's background and comfort zone) but this is not a recipe to deliver real shareholder returns.

IMHO, this is currently significantly over priced and in reality should go through a "take private" as I can't see it delivering solid growth and returns.

[pj 1] 20/3/2014 09:05

Just doubled my small holding here. Dont know too much about the Co but looks like good flow of contract wins could be starting here. GLA

[hydrus] 20/3/2014 08:33

Another good contract, this little company is a gem.

[nfs] 11/3/2014 13:11

Is it the disclosure that an employee bough a large chunk of shares recently that has pumped up the price and if no-one sells then the price simply goes up?

[cheshiremoggie] 11/3/2014 10:56

Valued at this level? Mcp is only £16m.

My impression of the TSP space is that there is plenty still to play for, there are still many players out there, each with a small bite of the cherry and the cherry is still growing. Telematics penetration still has a way to go before it reaches maturity.

Having said that I'm still not sure why the share price has gone from 30-35p to 50-60p without any extra news.

CM.

[goldenmember] 11/3/2014 08:04

Can't see how they are valued at this level - They are never going to be a major player in the TSP space as the ship sailed years ago - At best they will migrate into a low margin hardware manufacturer with the pace of change requiring huge R&D and therefore little Net profit.

[harrison15] 07/3/2014 13:25

I suspect the surge in price, which is droppping back, would be down to Hype!

IMHO their year end (end March) will be on target, as they bought BOX who are good for £800k profit pa.....so this should jump their profitss to the £700k in 2014 forecast...2015 forecast update will be interesting.

[saucepan] 27/2/2014 09:05

A long-term monthly candles chart in case of interest.



For me, the technical attraction is the long-term trend reversal. We had a major downtrend, a long consolidation period forming a base (below the blue line), and now the recovery phase - which seems to have very strong momentum.

[hydrus] 27/2/2014 08:35

Breakout looking good

[cheshiremoggie] 03/2/2014 12:41

The important thing, imho, as a long term investor is to establish that you think the long term prospects are great and monitor that assumption. Plus of course you have to act on it. If the prospects are good, the management look capable, the sector is growing and the share price is low compared to the future potential then personally I just drip feed my investment and then wait. A large spread doesnt really make a lot of difference long term as you say GWR7. You win some and lose some but if you pick reasonably well, the good ones (in the AIM sector) ought to far outdo the bad.

Thats my theory fwiw.

As far as I can see the future still looks good here so Good luck to all you TRAK investors.

Having said that I've no idea what the reason for this latest surge in share price might be, so it may be a case of easy come easy go?

CM.

[gwr7] 03/2/2014 11:08

I had to grit my teeth when I bought several lots around the 19p mark as the spread wasn't very kind. Michael gave the sage advice that whilst it was bad it would seem insignificant in the long run. Plenty of time for the long run but already the extra couple of pence I had to pay, while seeming significant at the time, is neither here nor there. I'll certainly bear that in mind in future when the spread remains stubbornly wide as it is what it is and a fact of life with illiquid shares.

[cheshiremoggie] 03/2/2014 10:29

Hello TM. I bought half of them between 3/9/10 and 13/12/10, the best purchase being on 13/12/10 at 10.28p

My average is a bit over 14p but no actual purchases exactly on 14p.

I hope that eases your troubled mind?

CM.

[tradermania] 03/2/2014 08:08

Cm when did you buy at 14p ?

[michaelmouse] 02/2/2014 19:52

hxxp://michae1mouse.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/updates-on-belgravium-technologies.html

Michael.

[gwr7] 31/1/2014 16:11

I spotted that employee purchase. It was tucked away in a short announcement which takes some doing. I wonder who the employee is? I assume they'd have said so if it was a director. Very interesting.

[cheshiremoggie] 31/1/2014 12:12

Still shooting up. (if you know what I mean).

Surely there is some news behind this large rise? My investment at 14p is looking good.

CM

[pj 1] 31/1/2014 10:47

Hi Saucepan, small holding (at the mo) for me, waiting for guidance after the last contract win........

[saucepan] 31/1/2014 10:42

Hi folks, I joined you long here today. A nice quiet thread, I see.

TRAK came through one of my ShareScope filters looking for stocks making new highs with a PEG of less than 0.7.

[hydrus] 31/1/2014 08:57

Superb this little company has v bright future

[hydrus] 30/1/2014 21:20

Very good point, I missed that thanks

[michaelmouse] 30/1/2014 20:59

Yesterday's news but, "In addition, an employee of the Company has today purchased 220,000 Ordinary Shares out of treasury at a price of 46.25p per Ordinary Shares."




That's £101,750 worth.

Quite a vote of confidence from an employee I'd say?

Cheers.
Michael.