Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[michaelmouse] 17/5/2015 20:51

Only a very brief mention of Trakm8, but you may wish to read the blog anyway.

Michael.

Following the recent bullish trading statement from Trakm8, it's worth contemplating what price the shares might rise to in the next few months and years. If they achieve around 10p eps this year then even after recent share price rises the p/e ratio is only around 14, and this company is achieving stellar growth. Certainly if they continue to grow anywhere near the current rate then the shares will end up commanding a very high p/e ratio indeed, particularly when investors cotton on to the fact that high margin recurring revenues are increasing substantially (up 60% this year).

[hydrus] 13/5/2015 15:57

I think that one was announced back in August

[lanzarote666] 13/5/2015 14:19

I hear that hauliers Downton is installing Trakm8 systems in 1400 of its vehicles.

Will others follow....

[luckymouse] 12/5/2015 22:44

Hydrus - spot on - finals in July means its rollover time - about a month before you often see a lift - I calc 200p and a 6m fwd of 163p so v happy with bags of upside here

[hydrus] 12/5/2015 16:39

Having said in now not sure whether broker upgrades have been included. Either way still too cheap

[hydrus] 12/5/2015 11:57

We are now in 2015/16 and broker estimates for this year haven't been updated yet to take account of Trakm8s statement about exceeding expectations for 2015/16. On current broker estimates Trak is on PE of 14.5. Assuming maybe a 15/20% uplift in these would put PE on about 12, even at this current price.That's too cheap considering the outstanding track record and growth.

[francky85] 11/5/2015 15:42

Yeah I'm aware of that older news, just seems to be a random spout of buying today.....not that I'm complaining...love watching this company grow slowly but surely.

[hydrus] 11/5/2015 15:37

See the news released on 23 April - not a surprise that the riding trend is continuing

[francky85] 11/5/2015 15:22

Does anyone know the reason for todays rise? Up 7% and on no news as far as I can see?

[luckymouse] 11/5/2015 12:22

shakeout then wooosh :)

[michaelmouse] 27/4/2015 21:08

Hydrus - "What interests me is they must have very clear visibility over existing contracts to be so confident."

Yes indeed. Less than 1 month into their new financial year they have stated:-

"Revenue for the new financial year ending 31 March 2016 is now expected to be ahead of previous management expectations, with profits comfortably ahead of previous management expectations."

I don't think the market has remotely cottoned on to the story developing here. If and when I get more time I'll share my thoughts about the prospects for Trakm8 going forward, but telematics is really gaining traction now and Trakm8 are one of the main players. This is a company that ticks all the boxes for me.

Michael.

[hydrus] 27/4/2015 12:33

Bargain territory with upgraded FY16 management forecasts. What interests me is they must have very clear visibility over existing contracts to be so confident. Therefore future wins, a number of which are in pipeline, will upgrade earning further. Wouldn't be surprised to see 11/12p EPS. Current years PE ratio as it stands is 12/13.

[michaelmouse] 23/4/2015 21:09

Fantastic trading update. If I get time I'll update my blog at the weekend.

Cheers.
Michael.

[hastings] 23/4/2015 18:54

A few thoughts that may be of interest.

[pawdaw] 23/4/2015 11:44

'....almost as if it was manufactured', ostrading2. I had a little rant about the drop here early on day 2 of recent price movement (this being day 3). So, completely out of the blue, a drop of 7% on day 1, nearly 10% on day 2 and then on day 3 we get news as above. My, what a coincidence....
However, I absolutely agree with whoever it was that re-quoted to me the dictum that if you're not happy to own a share for 10 years you shouldn't own it for 10 minutes.

[ostrading2] 23/4/2015 11:13

Today's announcement covered by Paul Scott in his small cap value report:

www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-23-apr-2015-craw-trak-csg-97351/

"Valuation - broker consensus is for 5.72p for y/e 31 Mar 2015, giving a rather high PER of 19.7. However, it's the comments about 2015/16 which sound more interesting - broker consensus is 7.98p, so "comfortably ahead" suggests to me perhaps 9-10p EPS might be on the cards for this year? If that's correct, then the PER drops to between 11 and 12.5, which looks good value for a company growing impressively.

My opinion - the Directorspeak sounds so positive, that it's tempting to throw caution to the wind here, and buy some stock, despite it having risen greatly already. I've been thwarted in the past, trying to buy this stock (I recall there being none available when I tried to buy some at about 19p a couple of years ago!).

I need to do some more research on the products, and what is driving the growth, but it certainly looks an interesting company, and a positive update today. It's very difficult to buy after this sort of price rise has already happened (see two year chart below), but if the fundamentals justify it, which they do seem to here, then previous price rises don't really matter."

[sportbilly1976] 23/4/2015 09:58

feel for anyone who had stops hit on the previous 2 days given the news & performance today..almost as if it was manufactured :)

[pas100] 23/4/2015 07:33

Nice RNS - Revenue for the new financial year ending 31 March 2016 is now expected to be ahead of previous management expectations, with profits comfortably ahead of previous management expectations.

[pas100] 23/4/2015 06:00

Just MMs looking for shares before next leg up - no doubt a few stops hitLast few times the RSI was this oversold the bounce back was pretty instant

[firtashia] 22/4/2015 17:19

Now oversold after today's trading.

[henryatkin] 22/4/2015 11:47

ostrading....I like both companies and think there's plenty of room in the world for both to thrive. Anything which makes business's more efficient will be in demand and both transport and insurance are huge markets to penetrate.

[ostrading2] 22/4/2015 10:17

I had a look at QTX, they have healthy profit margins and pay a divi too. Quartix only has software services whereas Trakm8 has hardware too.

Worth having a look, looks like a growth company, but they're healthily valued already at £80m whereas Trakm8 is at £30m.

[henryatkin] 22/4/2015 10:12

I've been looking at QTX, does anyone here hold? They seen to do much the same as TRAK.

[ostrading2] 22/4/2015 10:11

This happened last year around the 80p range when the price dropped 10-15% on small sells.

Good news and contract announcements can and have pull this up significantly.

This is traders looking for quick profits elsewhere. If you wouldn't hold a share for 10 years you shouldn't hold it for 10 minutes.