Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[blondeamon] 18/4/2016 13:17

Telematics is revolutionising fleet management

[blondeamon] 17/4/2016 16:33

I have to disagree there APAD, the AA contract was the single most important one for TRAK. In retrospect, I want to add this as a big bear flag if we lose this contract.

The first AA phase has transformed TRAK in its early days and the second phase with its B2B clients will convert TRAK to a big player among fleet managers.

Direct Line is another such contract. 3000 new policies every month, bring recurring ££ every month without much costs. They doubled their policies in 1 year and these results will reflect exactly that progress. UBI has the best margins for TRAK.

Then we have the US contract for 25,000 devices with an insurance company, following an existing client and see where it takes us.


AA is part of the game but not our only game right now. I believe there is something happening behind the scenes with all these contract extensions and BT Fleet announcing recently.

Of course all these need to be verified with numbers, 9 days left to find out.

[apad] 17/4/2016 14:51

Some of your bear points are generic, blonde...

I don't see TRAK and QTX as competitors, even though they are in the same market.

TRAK is after big growth through big contracts, is acquisitive and spends money to achieve its objectives. In some ways it reminds me of the Cat in Red Dwarf.

QTX is parsimonious and aims at smaller users for organic growth. It supplies through one intermediary for the insurance market and reports the limitations of this market very well.

I am interested in TRAK's performance because it will tell me whether the big players are vulnerable, so I hope it does well.

I'm not impressed by the AA contract - it's a poorly performing intermediary.
As you say, a few big contracts would be good.

FWIW
apad

[blondeamon] 17/4/2016 12:53

I always do that APAD, there are always bear factors in any share, even the most promising one.

1) AIM share, highly illiquid: That means a concentrated seller can wipe out 20% of the market cap in one day if they truely desire.

2) Brexit: if it happens the first thing companies will do is drop all non-essential-to-survive contracts to save costs. One of them will be telematics I am afraid as this market is relatively new and people will avoid the risk. Existing clients will probably be retained but will hurt our growth chances of new contracts.

3) Competition: more and more telematics companies make their appearance and it's probable that retaining market share will lead to margin decreases in a few years from now.

I have taken these into account and I think about them all the time for all my investments when deciding if the business case is intact.

For #1: I accept it as a continuous risk with AIM. In fact, my best entry points are because of the illiquidity and the panic caused by TW's article.

For #2: I'll sell if I believe Brexit is a chance. But at the moment I do not believe at all that we'll see a Brexit, I even bought plenty of ££ recently to exploit the FX swings as the ££ will bounce back if it's a No.

For #3: Right now we're ahead of competition and winning new contracts all the time. The acquisitions are all earnings enhancing and bring tremendous value to the core product. If the business case fails I will reconsider. I did look into competitors like QTX but found TRAK to be superb value on these levels compared to those.

[apad] 16/4/2016 16:50

blonde..., you are a true believer (unlike most you use data and think) - I hope it goes well for you.
Here's an interesting thought - why don't you have a go at creating a bear case?
apad
ps
The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.
F. Scott Fitzgerald

[blondeamon] 15/4/2016 21:33

I can't wait to see what happens when this pops out the good news and everyone piles in, followed by Simon Thompson in IC continuing coverage and the press coverage afterwards.

With it being so illiquid it could easily fly back to where it was in December... 4£

Telematics market is booming and especially insurance is going better than ever. The number of registered devices will tell it all, along with recurring revenue.

135,000 devices in November, by my count we should have around 170,000 right now. The major break out will happen when a contract is announced, it's been a while and they are keeping it low.

Routemonkey has already landed 3 new contracts but no RNS for those. Could TRAK be holding out as well so that Institutions can buy first?

[melody9999] 14/4/2016 23:47

Wow - thats quite a holding KN 187. Do you hold similar values elsehwere or is there a reason you have singled out TRAK?

[orange1] 14/4/2016 22:58

I think you will find that 10000 trade at 271p was a buy. Shares were being sold at that time for 261.5p.

[knowbodyyouno] 14/4/2016 21:52

I think the dip was caused by someone unloading 10.000 shares this morning,in one go. On most other shares such a comparatively minuscule trade wouldn't even have been noticed by the market. However, Trak is very different. Because it's so thinly traded and the vast majority of shares are in the hands of the BOD (or other employees), IIs and PIs who are long, then a trade like that can cause a 5% movement either way - sometimes more.

Luckily I was sat in front of my computer and was able to take advantage of it. I've got close to 90,000 of these babies now. I've been here since the days of 35p and I feel very confident heading into results and beyond.


GLA

[davr0s] 14/4/2016 19:03

Agreed - great recovery

[blondeamon] 14/4/2016 16:48

Nice bounce with volume on the dip, very bullish.

[r1singson] 14/4/2016 12:24

nice bowl forming imo

[scapital] 14/4/2016 11:27

I've had another load here.

[knowbodyyouno] 14/4/2016 11:04

Or a little top up, as I've just done. Not certain it's the last chance but I'd say it's getting close to results.

[blondeamon] 14/4/2016 10:46

Last chance for entry or top up before results.

[scapital] 12/4/2016 14:17

You finally sold me blondeamon, had my first slug of TRAK at 275.

[blondeamon] 12/4/2016 13:09

AA is one too and it has done wonders for TRAK. Opened up new routes of business for us by extending us the B2B clients.

TRAK knows how to deal with large clients, look at the special business unit they made for AA specifically. It will drive volumes for the future as it has largely benefitted TRAK already.

Another big clients is only extra diversification. Our products are not tailored to them, they can be applied to minigolf carts to 18 wheel trucks.

Selling more devices and increasing recurring revenue is the big trick here, and they have been doing that splendidly so far.

[apad] 12/4/2016 07:41

A contract with a large company can be a two edged sword, b.
They tend to demand a lot and put the contract out to tender on renewal.
RR virtually destroyed TCN that way.
It'll be a real test of TRAK's management to win it and make a success of it.
apad

[blondeamon] 11/4/2016 22:13

Very highly commendable of you to keep an open mind APAD, I too believe TRAK is the hidden gem still.

If my suspicions that BT Fleet might have hired TRAK are true then a major contract announcement cannot be far. But that's just the icing, too many good things lately in International front, Routemonkey contracts and Insurance policies.

2 weeks to find out. See if we get close to 3.5£ by then.

[apad] 11/4/2016 16:04

ps
Agree with you about QTX: too highly valued.

[apad] 11/4/2016 14:59

Bellweather, mod.
apad

[modform] 11/4/2016 14:13

Why the interest in TRAK Apad, I thought you didn't like the hair cut. This is much cheaper than QTX imo

[apad] 11/4/2016 13:58

ooooh u r bold :-)
apad

[rogash] 11/4/2016 13:53

Apad, I e-mailed and asked.