Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[luckymouse] 16/2/2016 12:44

There is the on going sad issue of lorries & busses knocking cyclists off when in town. Even tho fully curbed cycling lanes is the answer its tough for govts to rebuild the streets with dedicated cycling lanes, esp in old historic areas, streets with real parking pressure & because huge budgets are required.

If it was me Id make it compulsory for all HGVs to have quality side cameras & bike proximity sensors - and for bike frames to carry an emitter. Just shameful that govts continue to allow cyclists to be hurt & killed like that.

I wish TRAK had a such a cycle protection division. It would be a good fit.

[pj 1] 16/2/2016 09:56

Or maybe insist any visiting HGV has one fitted? That would make the roads safer as im sure any UK driver is well aware from experience.

I assume I am allowed to type such without being accused of being prejudiced?

[32nddegree] 16/2/2016 09:50

I have just bought here at 245.3p, sending the shares plunging by 1.77% in 10 minutes.

I apologise to holders here for both my purchase, and lack of sense of perspective (overly-inflated), but dark forces (Tom W the MI-6 stooge?) do seem to attach themselves to me.

I would beg of you not to do a single entendre "he said it would happen and it did" if the price plummets!

TRAK Seems good on a P/EG, conservative management, very sensible replies to the fuss, and they did answer about Route Monkey which was my one major concern. The cash generation might be surprisingly low in relation to the other positive indicators but its not to say its not a good buy. 400p might have been pushing it, prefer the 270p (or less!) mark.

As a gamechanger bombshell, what is the possibility of the UK Government making Telematics compulsory?

[blondeamon] 16/2/2016 08:45

Patience can be rewarded IMO Lauders :)

I'd wait for a pullback, if you get it good if not don't buy higher unless you're comfortable. That's what I've done here, bought on pullbacks. Missed some too but that's ok.

[lauders] 16/2/2016 01:24

Good you are so confident blondeamon and so apparently are others! I hope all the bulls are correct. I bought a little too early here but hope to recover and profit in a few months time. I am sure the board will be wanting to teach a certain financial "speculator/guru" a lesson with some impressive and clear accounted results in the near future. Not quite sure whether to wait or top-up though. Still mulling that one over to be honest.

[blondeamon] 15/2/2016 20:37

Company IMO is undergoing a serious transformation and the product is better than ever. Insurance in telematics is a market that grows 20% per year so even keeping our market share brings buckets of ££ with these recurring revenues.

I like the conservative management style, these guys could have been touting their own horn to raise the share price if they wanted but instead they underpromise and overdeliver.

Results soon, should have some pointers for the future. The story is intact and lots of growth to come.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a new contract soon either. I bought on the way down and I'll be buying on the way up too. MMs here play games with the share price as it's SETS and illiquid, but when news break there's not going to be enough around to handle the volume and price could easily go back to 4£ within a week.

P.S Second half of year always more profitable.

[luckymouse] 15/2/2016 19:25

Not a big opined if Dav - a neutral & technically accurate if - the mkt has flipped risk on for now - and traders hit the breaks - both facts

[pj 1] 15/2/2016 17:14

Dubai will soon make #telematics compulsory in heavy vehicles. Could this the future of telematics in Europe too?

[knowbodyyouno] 15/2/2016 16:13

Indeed. But that's the wonderful thing about Trak - the fundamentals are absolutely sound, the accounting conservative, and the BOD honest and calm. Consequently, bull-market or bear, more broadly ..long term it will make little difference to the growth story here.

[davr0s] 15/2/2016 14:12

That's a big "if" lucky Ouse - many markets in/near bear market territory. Market could drop a long way still from here

[luckymouse] 15/2/2016 13:54

If that down trend breaks bears at risk of getting mauled here - positive divergence

[nfs] 12/2/2016 14:55

Thanks mikeindevon

[mikeindevon] 12/2/2016 13:10

First met Trakm8 before their flotation when a friend and I worked with them on an educational charity project for electric car racing. We did the car, they provided some sponsorship and monitoring for the car as it went round the track etc. At that stage they were basically a box making outfit.

At the placement I didn't invest, advised my friend not to either ... he did and watched his shares go from IPO of 105 down to 13 ... then back to 80 or so ... we weren't in touch at the time and when we met up again he'd sold out on the rise at about 80-85.

He summed it up as "I know Mike, you wouldn't have bought when I bought, and you wouldn't have sold when I sold".

Just before we met up again I'd remembered Trakm8 ... done some research ... liked the new management and what they were doing and bought in. At that stage they were about 115. There was strong evidence in the trade lists of people stock piling shares and the business model had changed from making boxes to selling services on long-term recurrent contracts. The boxes were now the raison d'etre for the service contracts.

Things I like about the company, what it does and how it does it:

1. The business model is sound and safe, concentrating on recurrent cash flow in the future compared to unit based profits in the present.

2. The management is very heavily invested in the company ... basically they are the company.

3. The long term equity growth and the long term dividend payment are their retirement plans. Basically their interests and my interests are very aligned.

4. They have a very nice, conservative approach to making statements. No crash bang wallop style ... and deliver the goods.

All in all they are not your typical AIM type company and that I suppose is part of why thy are a little misunderstood by some.

Anyway, as you say, we'll see how it goes ... oh and by the way, don't feel too bad about timing ... I'm sat on a parcel of shares that I bought at 300p as part of a CGT manouvre!

Mike

[lauders] 12/2/2016 11:33

Well I for one hope all your faith in the management comes to pass and shareholders are rewarded! I am not so convinced and after buying in at just over 300p timed it just right to take a lot of the fall. I would just love to top up a bit if I had your faith in the market and company. Will see how it goes and MAY add a bit if we go below 200p again. I can't sit and watch the computer all day though so the timing has to be perfect from my side when I am actually able to trade away from the day job.

[mikeindevon] 12/2/2016 10:53

Yes ... lack of liquidity ... having gathered all the loose change up (I jest of course) I tried to buy £10K's worth this morning at under £2 but the Market Makers wouldn't take the order ...

In the end I had to settle for 3,000 shares and then top it up in a second order to the £10K value ... by which time the MMs had shifted the price by 10p to take advantage of the situation.

Still as you say ... I've literally known this company from its pre-flotation days and this price is just crazy for what they are doing in terms of building a cash generating machine.

Some day between now and the results being posted there's going to be a major revaluation to take us back to the £3+ level ... it will only take one article in the appropriate place to trigger this revaluation and I for one don't want to be light when it happens.

Mike

[knowbodyyouno] 12/2/2016 09:00

Agreed. This is a wonderful buying opportunity for those who have faith in the BOD and believe in the company. If only I had more funds available at the present time.

[blondeamon] 12/2/2016 08:38

On the lookout to buy more below 200p.

I loved it at 3£ I am crazy about it at 2£. Know what you buy but also DYOR

[adamb1978] 12/2/2016 08:33

This price action is bonkers. As someone said above, for the year starting in 7 weeks time, this is trading on a PE of 11x - 12x despite rapid growth. I've put in a limit order to see whether I can pick up some more on the cheap

[ramas] 12/2/2016 08:25

The double edged sword of illiquidity ... Gets you to a high price but will also take you down fast if there is nervousness on the story, the imperfect market at work nothing more.

[mikeindevon] 11/2/2016 13:01

I call this the "Eye of Sauron" effect. Those familiar with the LOTR films will know what I mean.

Basically Trakm8's market making is done more or less manually and the price gets shifted around by the makers according to how they read the market in general and what they think should be happening with the share price. For the big, high volume, shares the share price is decided by the order book constantly balancing the buy and sell pressures and the various market makers systems optimizing their positions.

At the moment the MMs are taking a pessimistic view and there really isn't enough buying pressure to force them to think differently. That's where the Eye of Sauron comes in ... in the Autumn time Trak benefited from a steady stream of media attention that kept a steady stream of small buying going along very nicely.

Now the Eye has moved on and is distracted by what's happening in the rest of the market ... when the next set of results come out it will swivel back here and there won't be enough shares to go round again.

As you've pointed out ... the future earnings are enormous for the present price ... unless you think the board are lying or mad and they've never disappointed in the past ... the share price has to rise to well north of £3.00 in the short-medium term, and to £4.00 by this time next year.

Of course if the FTSE-100 is down at 1000 again by then then all predictions are off!

Mike

[modform] 11/2/2016 12:36

QTX is 3 times more expensive

[pj 1] 11/2/2016 12:33

Ignore the noise IMO, but always DYOR

2017 p/e is now x11.8 for predicted 45% growth.

That's not expensive in anyone's Book IMO

[gorilla36] 11/2/2016 11:55

Well, it might be a pathetic attempt ....but the share price is down almost 8% !!

[blondeamon] 11/2/2016 10:09

Pathetic attempt at deramping with fake rumours. This is borderline an offence.

[knowbodyyouno] 11/2/2016 09:34

What a ridiculous attempt to sow some seeds of havoc/panic here. Do Apple tell shareholders every time the iPhone requires a new software update? Glitches (if indeed there was one) are part and parcel tech hardware - thankfully Trak don't merely sell the hardware, they service it afterwards. However, I wonder in what capacity did Direct Line feel the need to share such information with you, if they truly did at all.

Presumably you're not invested here, so we probably won't be hearing from you again.

Best of luck with your own investments.