Trakm8 Share Discussion Threads

[blondeamon] 22/3/2016 13:09

They also got a new contract with Avanti Gas for their 15 distribution centers.



Is the company making a killing and about to blow the doors open?

[rogash] 22/3/2016 12:29

I see that Iceland foods extended their contract with Route Monkey by a further 3 years, according to Trakm website.

[mikeindevon] 22/3/2016 09:14

I agree ... like you I think the market is not only overlooking, but actively ignoring this share at the moment. I think I understand what is happening ... and why.

Trakm8 is an extrememly tightly held and thinly traded share. As we've seen in the last few weeeks 10,000 shares either way can easily move the price by 5-10p. It's difficult for the investment houses to get in to any degree without a placement so we're dependant on small investors for share price movement. And that depends in turn on the financial pundits generating interest through regular reporting and comments.

In the autumn time the share price was in a steep growth mode which attracted more comments and more PI type investment.

Then we had the January debacle.

Now I think the pundits are playing a very conservative wait and see game until the results come out. Basically I don't think anyone wants to pin their reputation on saying the JanAffair was wrong even though it was an obvious manipulation of the market.

As you say, all the information is in the public domain ... but its not actually priced into the share price as the market is playing a 'lets see' game. Given the past record of the management and the consistency of their style and presentation over the years I feel very confident that this share has to revalue very significantly over the next few months. I'm still holding my target price of about £4+ for this time next year, and 300-350 as we go through mid-April.

Mike

[blondeamon] 20/3/2016 12:07

And this is the motor company that signed up with Marmalade in October, in most likelihood these are our products installed on Ford cars:

Ford ups ‘marmalade’ insurance contribution for young drivers to make new car motoring more affordable

[blondeamon] 20/3/2016 11:25

A summary of things that happened in TRAK after the Half Year results where the CEO said they will exceed expectations:

1) AA contract extension for business-to-business fleet management. A game changer as mikeindevon highlighted here before.

New division created with sales head running it, gaining access to all these AA clients to sell en masse.

2) RouteMonkey acquisition: enhances the product, increases revenue base and helps offer a full rounded solution to AA and others. Did we pay too much? Maybe yes maybe not but the idea is what the IP will bring to TRAK.

3) Insurance: DLG doubling their telematics devices in the past year. Marmalade seeing "exceptional growth" and their black box devices now up to 455,000. How many of them provided by us? We'll find out soon.

Huge recurring revenues there with big margins. Big growth for the next decade, around 15-25% per year.

Read this: Telematics-Based Car Insurance Policies in UK Increase by 40%: BIBA Survey





To top it all up, this is what the CEO said at the end of November, already 2 months into the second half:

"The Group believes that we will continue to successfully execute our outlined strategy and as a consequence deliver growth in shareholder value. The second halves of our financial years have consistently shown increasing revenues including service revenues over the first half. This year we expect that this will be true again. This, along with a full period effect of DCS, means that we expect second half of the year revenues will be considerably ahead of the first six months."

I'm feeling very bullish right now, it looks like the market is completely overlooking this at the moment.

[luckymouse] 20/3/2016 10:35

Arcadian - then ask him - not us lol

[blondeamon] 20/3/2016 09:57

Results in exactly a month Arcadian, then we'll know all we need to know. By then though it might be harder to find anything below 3£.

Market is focused elsewhere right now but telematics are a big success story in the UK and TRAK stands to benefit greatly from it. 15% growth every year with 25% in the insurance sector where our biggest margins are.

I'll be happy if we get one more of those market turbulence days so I can buy more of this on the cheap. Board here is one of the most decent I've seen in a while, focused and no BS, always delivering what they said.

[arcadian] 19/3/2016 23:38

Blonde

Thank you for that post. All I want is for him occasionally to reiterate his current stance in his weekly updates column as he does with his other recommendations.

[blondeamon] 19/3/2016 20:25

Why would he? No results have been posted since, so what exactly would he say?

1) His IC colleague did one at Nov 23:

Trakm8 looks to overtake




2) Then Simon Thompson did one exactly a day after:

On track for record earnings




3) And his IC colleague did one in December as well:

Trakm8 zooms ahead



That's 3 articles within 2 months.

I'd say that's pretty good coverage and we didn't have any news since. I bet he'll update his recommendation after the April results but good luck getting any shares then.

He has a quite large following and can move shares fast.

[arcadian] 19/3/2016 19:52

IC`s Simon T. did a big enthusiastic write up on this small cap. some time ago but doesn't seem to have continued with his recommendation for some time and hasn`t recommended it in his updates. Wonder why?

[blondeamon] 16/3/2016 20:29

I liked this at 3£ when I first bought, I loved it at 2.4£ when I last topped up. And in between when averaging down. This will publish news in a month's time and IMO it will go back to its previous highs. Insurance sector looks very healthy and tracking fleet with AA expansion should be rising in a stable way.

Raising insurance premium tax today to 10% will make even more young people looking at alternatives. Telematics insurances will look even more attractive as premiums rise year after year. Margins there are the biggest we have.

They must also be close to booking some new contracts, last update said they had quite a few prospective clients in the pipeline.

Biased here as this is my biggest holding so DYOR. This is the sector to be in IMO, grows 15-25% every year in the UK and way more opportunities abroad too.

[melody9999] 16/3/2016 08:30

I'm minded of the previous placing at 330p - normally I'm happy to buy at the placing price or thereabouts - in this case 20% lower is on offer. Fortunately I bought lower down so in profit already but maintaining as a strong hold.

[blondeamon] 15/3/2016 12:37

TRAK signed up Marmalade last February. On their website it says:

"The black boxes making 455,00 people's car insurance cheaper hxxps://t.co/LnIIBFSeM6"

They also moved to a new HQ because of their exceptional growth last year!



"Crispin Moger, chief executive of Marmalade, said: “It’s been an amazing year for Marmalade with exceptional growth seen across our product portfolio.

“We’re looking forward to continuing this pattern, helping many more young drivers to enjoy driving in a safe and affordable way."


We know DLG already doubled their devices with TRAKM8 this year and now Marmalade shows great growth after signing up with us 14 months ago.

Could we be making a killing on the insurance part of the company?

455,000 devices....how many are ours?

Not long to find out.... 5 weeks left.

[rogash] 15/3/2016 11:44

nice to see selling above the bid and going up, must be a good sign

[blondeamon] 08/3/2016 21:46

A reminder from the half year results a few months back:

"Outlook

The Group believes that we will continue to successfully execute our outlined strategy and as a consequence deliver growth in shareholder value. The second halves of our financial years have consistently shown increasing revenues including service revenues over the first half. This year we expect that this will be true again. This, along with a full period effect of DCS, means that we expect second half of the year revenues will be considerably ahead of the first six months. "

[blondeamon] 08/3/2016 21:23

I think once the miners rally cools off, more cash will be looking around and TRAK will be attractive to them.

Trading update in a month, not long to find out now.

Investment case here is still intact and if anything, very exciting for 2016. This sector is growing 25% a year and with the recurring revenues model, in a few quarters TRAK can be a cash cow if they can secure another client like AA.

DLG doubling their devices with TRAK as well, Marmelade signing up and let's see how it goes. Market will be signing a different tune once some news come out here. Board is very conservative and delivers, quite like that.

Lots of risks as always with tech and AIM too but DYOR, I'm heavily invested here as I like the story, the board and the potential. My biggest holding.

[pj 1] 08/3/2016 20:12

If it falls another 8% below 197p then a very rocky road as that will be another lower low and down trend in place. Hopefully if it will not.

Maybe more important to focus on the Company rather than the price and recall the AA renewal and the fact that a lot of major fleets have tenders in 2016/2017, related to the last positive statements from the Company.

Tough times though

[blondeamon] 08/3/2016 19:59

Agreed about frustration here. No reason for it and yet share price drops again.

Come April and TU out, this will be a different story IMO. Company must be doing very well with the doubling of its DLG devices, acquisitions and recurring revenues from last years piling up.

They should be looking for new contracts, if they manage a new one this could find the boost it is looking for.

[alphapig] 07/3/2016 15:51

Had a quote from direct line, £200 fully comp, with £15/quarter cash back if I downloaded their telematics app and scored above 74 (don't know the ins and outs of it).Very competitive quote, better then all the comparison sites.

[vsp2] 03/3/2016 18:03

A fair bit of scaremongering going on.

[vsp2] 03/3/2016 18:01

No big drama. These things happen and are resolved.

[knowbodyyouno] 03/3/2016 17:05

And your point is?

[vsp2] 03/3/2016 16:21

wrt supply of telematics to Direct Line

[vsp2] 03/3/2016 16:16

Wow your timing is impeccable....good try

[dlku] 03/3/2016 15:45

tanking again