Tp Share Discussion Threads

[martin collins] 09/4/2018 08:47

It would be nice if the market actually saw what is happening and price us accordingly.

[timojelly] 09/4/2018 08:38

Earnings enhancing acquisitions plus all these contracts will hopefully have us way north of 11p Pavey.

[timojelly] 09/4/2018 08:34

And another contract!

[pavey ark] 07/4/2018 11:21

I've just been over the house broker's update (12th Sept 2017).
As we are told that the results are "in line" then we should have few surprises but a few point caught my eye:-

1. We know the order book in H1 was £30.8m but a further £20m from the MoD contracts is to be recognised in 2018 and additional orders have been coming in thick and fast since.
Obviously some of the order book is turned to revenue but only orders above £500k are announced so on balance I could see an order book of over £50m next year!!

2. The services unit (MS)is predicted to have a revenue of £7.4m and £9.6m (2018) but Polaris and organic growth could easily push this over £15m (2018) and that without further acquisitions.
Unfortunately this service unit also includes the old, dreaded compressor business but they have claimed that this is under control.

3. Like the compressor unit the engineering unit has been hidden in another unit (Maritime), it does have more promise but it will still be loss making £524k in H1, £1167K in 2016.
I would consider a £800k loss (2017) to be a good result.

Without looking at the cash pile and further acquisitions my take on 2018 is

1. Engineering unit and the AMC are important and if the loss can be turned into even a small profit then this is significant.
2. Maritime should get close to £5m EBITDA in 2017 and £6m in 2018
3. Provided the old compressor business is under control then I expect £1m EBITDA from the service unit.

As things stand I would expect an EBITDA of close to £5m in 2018

If you ignore the cash and the additional shares and apply a rather mean 9x EBITDA multiple you get 11p a share.
I say mean as it is below the industry average and even a £4m EBITDA would mean that TPG had increased its EBITDA at a COMPOUND 55% a year over four years !!

[thompsonminor] 07/4/2018 09:32

The next few days (before the 2017 Finals are released) will have us all eager to see whether the company follow their precedents and release news of either new deals or acquisitions. Either way, the confidence of the Board's 2017 H1 interim results strategy/overview will come under scrutiny to see how far the business has developed towards their 2020 objectives:
"The Group is firmly focused on further developing TPG into a highly profitable business, generating annual revenues of between £90m and £100m in 2020."

[kilgallp] 07/4/2018 08:44

Added to my holding just before the close yesterday.

[timojelly] 07/4/2018 06:50

Hopefully a re-rate into at least double figures this year with another acquisition or two and a fantastic set of results. Gotta happen sooner or later.

[pavey ark] 06/4/2018 15:36

TDay, I'd like to think it was a one off but I'm afraid it's close to the real me!!A bit OTT but I stand by it......no real malice intended though just an aversion to people who faff about.

[tday] 06/4/2018 13:47

PA. Did you by any chance, get out of bed the wrong side this morning?

Best wishes to Nora and Bert

[pavey ark] 05/4/2018 21:19

Well I suppose everyone likes a good conspiracy theory but if one is prepared to do some research it is obvious that there has not been any large scale (or even small scale) selling of these shares.

The volume in January and February was trivial and almost every high volume day in March and April (getting to the end of the tax year) was dominated with the matched trades mentioned above.
It is easy to use this arrangement and provided you have the cash in your ISA your broker simply goes to the mm and negotiates a price for the deal.
The shares from outside the ISA are sold then bought again inside the with the spread being the commission divided by the number of shares.

The only days I can find for some selling were the 7th and 9th of march and given that the institutions hold 500m shares this could be nothing more than year end housekeeping.
(note that on the day of a big sell a number of the other 'Sells" are buys as the mm offloads the large sell)

There are 760m share in TPG and if the institutions hold over 500m then these sales are minute and on a number of days the buys were greater than the sells.

So there you have it: it took a lot less time to collect the data than it did to type this.
If someone "knows something" it's certainly not the big shareholders as they're certainly not selling.

[iasike] 05/4/2018 17:39

I'm hanging onto mine at the moment, but Concerned that someone knows something we don't. I guess it's a wait for results time.

If the above B & B comments add up, we should see a tick up tomorrow, if another drop,
why? does someone know something we don't?

[pavey ark] 05/4/2018 17:31

Paulgo, no but I haven't been moaning about the share price either.

[catch007] 05/4/2018 17:03

Well ending the tax year on a positive note I added another small tranche at 5.25p this afternoon. Broached my threshold limit but the price is so compelling so in for a penny (share). GLA

[bullster] 05/4/2018 16:50

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Expanding on the new tax year shuffling...........

More about Bed and ISA |

Barclays Smart Investor
hxxps://www.smartinvestor.barclays.co.uk/invest/moving.../more-about-bed-and-isa.ht...


While the name 'Bed and ISA' might seem like an obscure expression, the idea is simple – you sell investments that you're holding outside an ISA and then buy the same investments back within your ISA. Using an Individual Savings Account (ISA) is one of the most tax-efficient ways to invest. Essentially it's a savings ..

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[tday] 05/4/2018 16:43

PA. As I understand it, if you sell shares and buy them back within 30 days, then if there is a loss on the sale, it cannot be immediately claimed for tax purposes.

[paulgo] 05/4/2018 16:41

So you've been buying again PA?

My belief is that someone is offloading (for whatever reason), there are some sheep and a few other unfortunates whose stop loss has been hit. Other than that I don't think it's too significant - frustrating though.

[pavey ark] 05/4/2018 16:15

C'mon people !!

End of tax year today and at least 1.6m of those "sells" are investors selling at the lowest price possible (crystallising a loss) and buying back at a very slightly higher price.
There looks to be about 1m in genuine share trades and buy/sell looks about even.

I know that there isn't the strength in the share price that we would want but you must take all factors into account.

As has been said before, the institutions bought plenty at 6.5p but if the private investors are sitting on their hands how do they expect the share price to go up ?

[catch007] 05/4/2018 14:24

12 month share price view does not make for great reading and was on a downward trajectory prior to his departure. Yet all other news has been positive so the two sides don't make sense at all. A time to stay calm and await the results. GLA

52 week change
↓ -1.6495 (-23.91%)

[tday] 05/4/2018 13:08

Why would shareholders, be selling at this low level?

I hope the persistent share price weakness, is just one of those things and not the prelude to bad news, either relating or not, to S Kings sudden departure.

Either way we will soon find out.

[pavey ark] 04/4/2018 21:32

Yes I've always been rather surprised that investors seem more impressed when a company spends money than when it receives money making contracts.

However I must point out that the day after the acquisition of Polaris was announced TPG got a rather nice contract for £6.9m and a contract the day before.
Since about the start of December the flow of contracts should have resulted in a steady rise in the share price but recently investors seem to discount all this news.,...I have no idea why!!

In about 10 days we will get the results but as we know what these results should be the most interesting thing will be the additional information from management.
I suspect that if an acquisition is on the cards for April it will be announced before the results .....just a hunch.

[fernandesb] 04/4/2018 20:08

once announcement is made about an acquisition the share price will shoot up mark my words

[bullster] 04/4/2018 18:55

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Out of interest, just looked at what happened to the share price, prior to the first acquisition, post "open offer", of Polaris Consulting Holdings Ltd around 13/12/17.




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[pavey ark] 04/4/2018 17:42

I'm picking up a sense from things the company has said that a great deal of management time has gone/is going into the current businesses such as the existing MS capacity (+recent acquisitions) and the refocusing of the engineering unit(AMC).
Management did say that they would complete one acquisition before the year end which they did (Polaris)and the remainder by mid year so watch this space.

I am very happy with the organic growth and this management has not made a poor acquisition yet so things certainly look good to me.

Perhaps not the correct way to go about things but when assessing the company I ignore the 340m shares issued last year and take the £21m raised from any cash sum I calculate that they have.
I have said often that the cash raised and shares issued distort the situation especially as the cash has not yet been deployed.