Tp Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 16/4/2018 12:47

TM, it looks like this note may have been last year as PG haven't issued a note or update in March.TPG and PG contacted.

[kiwihope] 16/4/2018 12:00

Pavey,

What is your forecast for eps (i.e profit after tax) tomorrow?

[pavey ark] 16/4/2018 09:36

Given the "game" we have I would not want to see it changed.
Debate is good and different opinions welcome but I cannot agree with a very large part of the previous post but hey ho life goes on.

Edit: trying to source the PG update and will pass on what I find, if I can.

[pavey ark] 16/4/2018 09:35

Given the "game" we have I would not want to see it changed.
Debate is good and different opinions welcome but I cannot agree with a very large part of the previous post but hey ho life goes on.

[eastbutwest80] 16/4/2018 09:06

Morning all, I am also looking forward to seeing what the results tomorrow will do to the share price I still have my concerns from earlier in the year that the company will be broken up and sold in pieces so as long as there is nothing negative 'hidden' such as MBO's, winding downs or restructuring then I will be happy as my worry is that the Advanced Manufacturing business is to be sold off at a later date following the break down of the engineering business and this is where I feel the main growth potential is (aerospace and new nuclear projects as well as defence). My understanding is that Simon Kings was heading this push up so I am worried that the severing of Kings contract was based on a disagreement over this. To be clear though, this is only speculation on my part. That being said, however, I absolutely agree with PA's Maritime valuation and I am also hoping for announcement of a large acquisition tomorrow, I just hope that any lesser news does not have an adverse effect because its below unfounded expectations of SH's. I have no issue with smaller acquisitions - I just want to see a game changing strategic acquisition.

[pavey ark] 16/4/2018 08:06

TM, thanks for that and I also missed this.
PG did start coverage last April but didn't issue an update at the interims.
The analyst was very bullish at last year's results and came straight in with the rather unequivocal statement that Maritime was worth £40m on its own.
Analyst are usually "guided" so this is very positive especially at this stage.

[thompsonminor] 16/4/2018 07:23

I missed this story, which came soon after the 22 March announcement of the CO2 equipment contract. Good to see another brokerage taking an interest, especially
with a "buy" rating:
Equities research analysts at Panmure Gordon assumed coverage on shares of TP Group PLC (LON:TPG) in a note issued to investors on Wednesday. The brokerage set a “buy” rating and a GBX 9.47 ($0.12) price target on the stock. Panmure Gordon’s price objective indicates a potential upside of 20.25% from the company’s previous close.

[pavey ark] 15/4/2018 16:18

So busy looking at other aspects of TPG that I forgot about the results !!

EBITDA £2.4m-£2.7m
T/O £28m-£30m
Order book £35m-£40m

Unless "in line" mean different things to different people we have the results now.

Here's what I've come up with that may be of more interest.

People (myself included) must have been surprised when The Maritime unit and Engineering unit were merged and a new unit "Services" was created.
The reason for my surprise was the obvious imbalance between the two units with Services seeming to be very small in comparison.

I now notice that the house broker gave a T/O estimate for Services of £9.7m in 2018.
Polaris and recent contracts pushes this up to £15m in 2018.
This from a company that had a TOTAL revenue of £21m in 2016!!!

2016 T/o £21m. EBITDA £1m
2017 T/O £29m EBITDA £2.5m
2018 T/O £40m EBITDA £5m......MY Estimates with no further acquisitions and £25m cash !!
Edit: not plucked from the air and if anything conservative.

I don't complain about the share price because I am more than happy to watch this unfold.

Edit: institutional investors don't (can't) nip in and buy as the price moves before they can get meaningful amounts, they bought plenty at 6.5p and have invested at previous fund raising.
The ability buy and sell easily is one of the few advantages private investors have but whither they care to do this is obviously a personal choice.

[timojelly] 15/4/2018 11:42

Well. World war 3 didn't kick off. Looking forward to next week's results.

[tday] 13/4/2018 13:14

Perhaps, like all of us Pi's, they are waiting for the results.

[tday] 13/4/2018 13:12

I am a bit surprised that II's haven't, so far as I am aware, been adding to their holdings in TP, despite the bullish news from the company, regarding new contract awards etc.

[timojelly] 13/4/2018 12:30

Very quiet here.

[catch007] 10/4/2018 15:01

Trading volumes: 4th April 4.97m, 5th 2.7m 6th 243k & 9th 255k. Whilst I accept there will have been a number of end of tax year trades in the run up to the financial year end I have considerable doubt that this volume was purely around PI tax trades. As I noted previously there was a strong skew to the buy side in recent days.

Moving on however PA Like me you have conviction and have added again I hope faith will be rewarded. I felt 5.25p was a compelling buy last week so I did. I remain convinced that there is a huge value gap in TPG share price and next weeks numbers may start to make a real difference in sentiment. GLA

[pavey ark] 10/4/2018 14:15

LL, I would suggest that there are a number of people here who have been fairly serious investors in TPG over the last THREE YEARS.

In 2016 it was obvious that there was money to be made from investing in TPG as the market had not recognised the turn round from the CORAC train wreck to the niche defence contractor and specialist engineer.

I think we can all agree that once again the share price has moved into the rather silly (bizarre?)zone but never the less a three year scale gives a much better picture.

[larry laffer] 10/4/2018 13:54

Even after all the good news and orders plus a cash pile TPG and the AIM index are heading in the opposite directions over the past year. Its going to be like turning the Titanic round when it eventually starts to go.There are a lot of investors significantly under water at these levels.




Don't redraw the chart to includea timescale of all, it will frighten the average punter to death.

Its a good job this isn't the same company and doesn't have the same management as the early days.

[timojelly] 10/4/2018 05:25

Maritime is OUR cash cow for now.

[tiltonboy] 09/4/2018 23:58

Not long to wait for the results, and hopefully an in-depth review of existing operations, plus an update on the acquisition programme. I'm sure they would have been expecting to execute on more targets than they have, as it makes little sense raising that sort of money as long ago as they did.

Question is , will they receive an offer for the maritime business, or for the whole lot?

I would be surprised if their rating hasn't come to the attention of others!

[pavey ark] 09/4/2018 23:08

Catch007,
Post 2929
Look at the volume since the 5th and even after today's announcement volume was low.
Nice to see the buying today but it was just some private investors doing a little topping up.
I added 35k today but it was really only to bring a holding in one of my accounts up to a round number.( How sad is that?)

Tax year end was the reason for earlier high volume but this constant stream of very positive news can't be discounted indefinitely.

[catch007] 09/4/2018 22:00

Not really tiltonboy end of tax year trades yes but that kind of volume is unlikely to be just from PI's 'bed & breakfasting'....double counting absolutely but only to a certain level up to 5th April. The volume trend has continued as I stated today with some decent trading deals going through (as shown on Morningstar anyways). Lets just hope the trend continues. Good luck to you

[tiltonboy] 09/4/2018 21:18

You should disregard recent volume, as PA has alluded to there has been some sizeable end of tax-year shuffling, which in itself double-counts.

[catch007] 09/4/2018 12:53

I was having a look at recent trades and transaction volumes this morning. There has been a significant uplift this month already, 4.9m shares traded on one day alone last week the highest one day volume in a long time. Todays trades are very brisk with a strong buy bias (caveat: sometimes it is hard to differentiate buy/sell prices so using the bid offer prices as best guide). This is a positive momentum going on in the results run up IMHO. The share price has ticked up a tad on two consecutive days so perhaps we are gaining impetus now.

[eastbutwest80] 09/4/2018 11:57

I'm pleasantly surprised by this announcement; the in-house MS unit appears to have a much higher margin than the manufacturing sites and I think the potential for repeatability of this contract each year is high as long as execution is optimised.

[catch007] 09/4/2018 09:52

The contract news flow has been excellent over recent months...at some point hopefully next week on results announcement we should surely see an share price break out north. I hope we also see news of another quality acquisition along with the results. GLA

[pavey ark] 09/4/2018 09:25

On a slightly more serious note : this contract looks like being down to the in house MS unit and not the recent acquisitions.

Once again I question the need for the fund raising as the organic growth is quite exceptional.

However,the people who are driving this organic growth are the people that wanted the extra cash so I expect they know what they are doing and obviously know a lot more than I do.

[martin collins] 09/4/2018 08:47

It would be nice if the market actually saw what is happening and price us accordingly.