Tp Share Discussion Threads

[larry laffer] 28/3/2018 09:08

PA

"Hard to see what more any private investor, doing a reasonable amount of reseach, could want from an investment......"

How about a much better share price for starters, we wouldn't be discussing any of those points/accounts/order book etc if the share price was the much vaunted 22p.

[pavey ark] 28/3/2018 09:08

Just noticed the story about The Collins Submarines on the TPG site (26th March).
Obviously TPG wouldn't show this if they weren't involved so they supplied the original Collins air purification systems and will almost certainly supply the equipment for the refurb of the six Collins boats.
As TPG supplies the main contractor that has won the contract for the 12 new Australian boats...yes you've guessed it... we're in there as well.

Two years ago I put a value of £30m on the maritime unit and the trolls screamed ( others who are perhaps still here stayed quiet)
This unit should easily make an EBITDA of £5m for 2017 and standing on its head it will make over £6m this year.
With orders pouring in and contracts stretching out for years to come this unit is worth AT LEAST £50m now.
OK let's calm down,let's say £44m ...wait a minute isn't that the entire market cap of this company.
I must be mistaken here as this would mean I was getting over £20m cash, an advanced engineering facility, a MS unit that is likely to produce a profit of close to £1m this year and all the compressor IP that cost tens of millions to acquire.

Something wrong here.....time for a new calculator.

[tiltonboy] 27/3/2018 21:08

Bullster,

I am not talking about PI holdings in funds, more about holdings in pooled nominees.

[pavey ark] 27/3/2018 19:52

Getting silly posts now but as most here are grown up and can spot nonsense I think I'll let it go.
Edit: for clarity I am referring to buywell3

For the non sad I think this institutional holdings thing is important and explains a lot, whither it is worth going into great debate on the exact figures is another thing but I for one am grateful to Bullster for bringing it to everyone's attention.

Thinking about this does seem to answer a few question.
Last June the share price was about 7/7.5p and then the company decided to raise cash.
Going to their substantial institutional base they set out their stall and had no problems raising the cash.(there's a hint there for private investors)
Institutional holders do work on a more reasonable timescale than some(most?)private investors so having increased their holding they simply sat back and waited.
These investors can't really react to every order and update so the dear old market makers have had to shuffle things up to get some trading going.
It now seems to make more sense to me now.

I think we know what the results will show and we have had plenty of very positive updates and indications as to where the company is going and how well it appears to be doing.

Hard to see what more any private investor, doing a reasonable amount of reseach, could want from an investment.

[catch007] 27/3/2018 19:43

buywell are you the same poster that was on the OXB BB (buywell2)?

[buywell3] 27/3/2018 18:53

And advfn show this with a Loss of £200k and a Mkt Cap of over twice the turnover



Which probably explains the chart shape for the last 12 months

Down from 8.25p to 5.75p

[azalea] 27/3/2018 18:30

Than you folks for the update. Off hand, I do not know of another UK listed company with such a large collective holding by investors.

[bullster] 27/3/2018 12:00

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It could be argued that the 3.7% held by UK retail investors includes nominee accounts.

I class UK retail as shareholders who are holding their own certificates and others in nominee accounts who have the ability to buy or sell shares independently of a fund manager.

If you look on the companies webpage below, there are 70% of total shares held by (3%+institutions) of which i don't recognize any as running nominee accounts.




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[bullster] 27/3/2018 11:22

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tiltonboy,

I explained all that in #2868

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[tiltonboy] 27/3/2018 10:58

Retail investors will own far more than 3.7%, as they will be held in Nominee names.

[bullster] 27/3/2018 10:49

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qackers,

Thanks for backing up my 96% figure. (i probably should have said 93%)

TPG's website only includes instis holding over 3%, but there must be many holding less than 3%.

I got to my guesstimate by adding the uk retail (3.7%) and director holdings etc, and worked backwards.

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[catch007] 27/3/2018 10:08

I think we should just take more comfort in TPG from the quality of the Institutional Investors on board.....they must perceive value in the company and have confidence in the strategy. GLA

[timojelly] 27/3/2018 09:16

Not many shares in free float then... All the makings of a 'pocket rocket' with the right news flow..... Errrrr plenty of news just no movement..

[pavey ark] 27/3/2018 09:06

I think we can all agree that the figure is very high for a company like TPG and it certainly was worth pointing out the significance of such a high percentage.
(Even higher than I thought)

Septblues: there is certainly a lot of building/ordering going on and TKMS in Germany and DCNS in France look like winning the contracts.
Fortunately for us TPG supplies both !!
I consider the recent follow up order from TKMS to be very important.

[qackers] 27/3/2018 08:53

For the record


Shareholder Analysis
i. The company's issued share capital

The company's issued share capital comprises 758,565,854 ordinary shares of nominal value 1pence each.

ii. Significant shareholders

Beneficial owners

As at 15 January 2018, the company is aware of the following entities which held an interest and voting rights in more than 3.0% of the company's issued share capital:

Shareholder

No. of shares

%

M&G Investment Management Limited 146,309,150 19.3%
Legal and General Investment Management Ltd. 109,939,245 14.5%
Hargreave Hale Ltd 97,184,168 12.8%
Ruffer LLP 72,923,077 9.6%
Killik Asset Management 41,652,571 5.5%
Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. 34,390,668 4.5%
Miton Asset Management Limited 31,076,924 4.1%
Retail Investors - UK 27,654,470 3.7%

The Directors of the company have an aggregate beneficial interest in 7,958,415 shares (1.9%) and the TP Group plc EBT (Employee Benefit Trust) has a beneficial interest in 1,606,769 shares (0.4%).

The company holds no shares as treasury shares.

[azalea] 27/3/2018 08:25

Bullster 2868

"with institutions holding 96% of the shares in issue". Given that to be the case, Morningstar data must be way out of kilter in that respect. Where have you got your information from?

[pavey ark] 27/3/2018 08:18

Although Bullster's 96% figure is excessive the very high institutional holding is a point to be considered.
The institution's paid 6.5p last July and are now waiting for the management to deploy the cash.
Another point to be considered is the view of private investors to TPG.Some here will remember the rather acrimonious exchanges here between myself and our then in house troll (The Prophet).
This troll spouted absolute nonsense but was certainly not shouted down by a massive body of TPG supporters and it was obvious to me that unlike most bbs on ADVFM the PI base was weak and that even holders were not entirely positive.
I knew I was on to something here and the share price (under 3p) was simply ridiculously low.
At this time I pointed out that the maritime unit was worth £30m and they had cash of £9m yet the market cap was c.£12m.
Today the Maritime unit is worth £50m and they have cash of £25m and the market cap is c.£44m.
Strangely,given my figures,I consider today's prospects to be even better than two years ago as there are lots of profitable extras to add to these figures.
Private investors must make their own mind up but they will not be comforted by the collective enthusiasm they may experience on other boards on other companies.

[septblues] 27/3/2018 08:06

Apparently the Russians are investing heavily in submarines. Many are now advocating accelerating the UK build program and refurbishing others.

[bullster] 26/3/2018 18:30

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buywell3,

I didn't participate in the fundraising when the share price was 7p.

£20,000,000 has been injected into the company for me and the share price has barely dropped, proportionally.

Not bad !

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[catch007] 26/3/2018 18:23

Averaging down can simply be catching a falling knife at times especially post a series of profit warnings or trading difficulties. However prudently building a longer term value stake in a company you believe is making progress and demonstrating value is a different play entirely. I take the latter view on TPG and time will tell if its a good decision or a dog decision, we will see.

[bullster] 26/3/2018 18:22

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catch007,

My positive and negative scenarios comment was aimed at the share price movement.

With the institutions having control of 96% of the shares in issue, it could give share price the appearance of an out of kilter appearance to that of private investor perceptions.

Most of the institutions holdings are mainly ordinary private shareholders money, anyway, held in portfolio funds consisting of many different shares. The fund managers therefore don't operate with the same freedom as private investors, they are tied by longer term goals, so it can seem that a dab of good news has been overlooked.

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[buywell3] 26/3/2018 17:54

Depends if you average down to keep your %age the same ie buy more shares at a cheaper price


This is generally regarded by experienced investors as a mugs game

[bullster] 26/3/2018 17:47

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The share price has risen, in my view, since July 2017.

The share price was 7p when 336,101,128 shares were issued, raising £20,000,000.

336,101,128 represented 44% of the new total of 758,565,854

Look at that in two ways.

1) 7p should have fallen to 3.92p for non participants of the fund raise
2) £20m for 336m discounted shares valued 758m shares @ £44.14m +


Things just get better !

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[catch007] 26/3/2018 16:58

'Positive and negative scenarios of that fact require some deliberation' a very good point Bullster. I took the positive view on the RNS contract award and bought a further small tranche at 5.7999p earlier today. I haven't seen many negatives in my deliberations of late however the markets are in such flux it may be awhile before we see some reward. I sincerely hope not. GLA