Tp Share Discussion Threads

[pavey ark] 26/3/2018 16:33

65% held by "top holders" (over 1%)

It should be pointed out that these shareholders were willing to top up at 6.5p nine months ago.
Since the fund raising there has been a constant flow of orders and good news.
I imagine everyone here is surprised by the lack of positive movement in the share price but it must come eventually.

[bullster] 26/3/2018 16:10

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96% of TPG shares are in the control of institutions.

Private investors are virtually passengers, for most of the time.

Positive and negative scenarios of that fact require some deliberation.

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[catch007] 26/3/2018 13:47

Since December we have had an earning enhancing acquisition announcement, a positive upbeat trading statement and 3 new contract announcements and the company retains a substantial cash war chest. The current share price is baffling!

[septblues] 26/3/2018 13:28

I see that Titanium products are going to play a more important part in submarines and defence platforms.

[rolling ronnie] 26/3/2018 11:03

Alternative source - www.tpgroup.uk.com/investors/rns-news/2018/03/information-assurance-contract-win/?rns=1

[timojelly] 26/3/2018 10:44

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tp-group-plc/tpg/information-assurance-contract-win/201803261022259002I/?fe=1&utm_source=FE%20Investegate%20Alerts&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=Announcement%20Alert%20Mail&utm_campaign=TP%20Group%20PLC%20Alert

[catch007] 25/3/2018 18:31

The market is very volatile with major swings daily so its hard to place certainty on chart values at present though I do appreciate such analysis can be invaluable. I remain confident that the results will be good following the recent trading statement and hopefully that will trigger share price movement upwards.GLA

[pavey ark] 24/3/2018 19:05

Buywell3 before I make any comment regarding your post am I correct in thinking that you expect the share price of TPG to fall to 4.35p ?

If this is the case can I assume that this prediction is based on some graphical interpretation of the previous share price of TPG and does not include any fundamental information regarding the company?

[buywell3] 24/3/2018 18:00

Whilst 4.35p has not been hit yet ... the share price is heading in that direction chartwise since I said

buywell3 - 29 Aug 2017 - 15:27:12 - 2438 of 2856 TP Group plc - TPG
Chart says a bit more ... say 4.35p

ok ........ ''4.35p''

[pavey ark] 24/3/2018 17:31

Nap14, "faster moving stock" I'm not sure what that even means.
More happening?
Going up in price very fast?
Going down in price very fast?

Anyway good luck with your new purchases and there is perhaps a chance that the expected fast movement is up but then again.....

[napoleon 14th] 24/3/2018 12:40

PA - Your assiduous monitoring of TPG is impressive and your point of view is rational.
However, I remember superg1 doing the same thing on IOF, & we know what happened there!

I've sold half my TPG and gone for far faster moving stock.
I also sold off chunks of AMER, SDX & others for the same reason...

TPG can be seen to be underpriced, offering great value yet to be unlocked, but the hard facts of investing are that we do it to make money - capital gains in my case.

However unjustified the treatment they get from the market might be, cash tied up in under performers is DEAD MONEY! That costs money...

[pavey ark] 23/3/2018 17:43

Bullster, you may have hit on something there.
A quick Google search suggests that Wellman Defence installed the original gear in the Collins Submarines so TPG are obviously in the frame for the refit replacements.
This is another example of the initial contract win only being part of the story with 25/30 years of maintenance income worth more than the original lump sum.
So it looks like TPG has this refit programme and early design work for the new submarines.

[pavey ark] 23/3/2018 11:16

Catch007, I agree with your comments and you are certainly right to point out potential pit falls.
I always like to give as many facts as I can when I post and hope that people would challenge them if they disagree.
I am essentially saying what I said two years ago when the share price was half its present value and I now consider the investment case to be even stronger.
It is one thing to be blinded by the perceive value of a share and I have been caught out before now but there is also the point that if a share is not a penny share and it is not under researched then the market should put an approximately fair price on it.
If you want to make money then you must find a share like TPG , do lots of research and if you feel you've found a good'n you must back this with investment.
I would disagree with you on one point, I don't believe that enough PIs do enough research but it is only a gut feeling.

TM , should be that long a wait.

Bullster, thanks for that.
I haven't really pushed the Australian deal too much simply because it is quite far in the future but as we see from the BAe orders we are getting now for the trident successor programme we should see some early design contract payments for the Australian boats.
All this assumes that we are getting the work but that looks very likely.
As far as the refit is concerned I don't know if TPG was the original contractor for the scrubber units nor if the current TPG units could be used.
IF they can be used and IF TPG are supplying the units in the new boats it would make sense to use TPG to set up and establish a base in Australia.
Employ and train staff: the Australians would like that.

[bullster] 23/3/2018 09:58

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DCNS of France are to build 12 submarines for Australia.

BUT the first boat is only due to hit the water in 2030.

So the Australian government is refitting 6 of its Collins class subs to span the gap.

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[thompsonminor] 23/3/2018 09:47

PA Once again, thanks for your insightful analysis. I'd already taken advantage of the slight drop in the share price this week to top up again. So despite recent reservations and insecurity (specifically around Simon Kings departure) I have a long-term commitment. Slowly, slowly catchee monkey!!

[catch007] 23/3/2018 09:46

A little longer to wait for Actual numbers then for us to consider our investing positions. Morningstar had indicated 4th April as next event date. PA I would like to think all PI's take time to do their own research and that BB's can sometimes give additional opinions worth considering. I have built a sizeable share price holding (for my investment scale and % portfolio risk) and still see the share as an ADD given the unlocked value potential. TPG is a penny share and by definition in a higher risk investment category I have therefore looked hard and long at the evolving numbers before investing my own cash based on my own view. Your break out assessments particularly on the maritime division worth alone underpin the value gap and of course are supplemented by recent earnings enhancing acquisitions and substantial cash balances. There is always a danger we become too precious and bullish of our investments however standing back taking a cold hard view it still seems a compelling value play. GLA

[pavey ark] 23/3/2018 09:32

TM, yes,a bit later than last year but a lot going on.

One last bit of info (rant?):

Six months ago the share price was 15% higher than today but over £10m in additional orders have been booked since November.
People must remember the company uses a cut off of £500k for announcement of orders so the MS unit, the engineering unit and even the Maritime unit will have received additional orders that have not been announced.
(In the past I have looked at one closing order book to the next closing order book, turnover and announced orders in between and found that the sub £500k orders certainly add up.)
This large order level has to be added to the existing £30m closing order level in H1(less turnover) and I remember reading in a brokers report that they are due to book the remaining £20m from the MoD contracts this year !!!

[thompsonminor] 23/3/2018 09:06

TP Group (AIM: TPG), the specialist services and engineering group, announces that the Group's final results for the year ended 31 December 2017 will be published on Tuesday 17 April 2018.

[pavey ark] 23/3/2018 09:01

31/8/2016
signed a contract to supply a new variant of its existing carbon dioxide scrubber technology to ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems GmbH ('TKMS'), one of the leading system providers of non-nuclear submarines and high-end vessels.

The initial contract with TKMS is worth a minimum of £1.65 million, with the potential for multiple further units.

22/3/2018
a follow-on contract worth £0.8 million to supply additional carbon dioxide treatment equipment for fitment to a new-build submarine as part of an existing overseas programme.

This order is the second in a multi-unit programme for the latest design of TPG's carbon dioxide systems that are smaller, lighter and quieter than their predecessors. The equipment will be built across the TPG Engineering facilities and is expected to be delivered in 2018.

"additional carbon dioxide treatment"

It looks like the total value for this one submarine is substantial and looks to me that TPG is now the go to company for TKMS.

TPG is the only supplier of this equipment in Western Europe and looks like being the sole supplier to DCNS in France and now TKMS in Germany.
If we throw in the MoD contracts, the trident programme (£30billion), the Far East and Australia things could not look better.

NB: most of the above is based on TKMS being the customer but if not it just means there is someone else buying.

[pavey ark] 22/3/2018 22:59

Just had a bit of an in depth look here and I suspect this order is for TKMS in Germany.
TKMS has a large order book and builds a number of conventional submarines for a number of countries.
With AIP being the next big thing for conventional submarines I see further opportunities for an increase in the scale and value of the equipment supplied by TPG.

The more observant will notice that the recent order wins state that the work will be carried out "across the TPG engineering facilities".
In the past it just said Portsmouth.

The market appears to have reacted in a rather strange way today but if my guesswork is correct this is a significant order.

Strange that there will probably be buying when TPG spend money but little buying when money making orders just keep rolling in.

Honestly,have private investors here actually given serious thought to how much the maritime unit is worth ( I mean looking through previous results, calculator out, order book, estimated profit this year and next etc,etc) or do people just say " £800k, seen bigger than that" ?

[pavey ark] 22/3/2018 14:15

Just back home to this little snippet.

Is it me ? I ask myself (not for the first time !!)

"Lighter,smaller,quieter" costing only £800k.

They have created a market here.

"second in a multi unit programme"

The old units will almost certainly be replaced sooner than originally scheduled.

The market cap is £44m which is my conservative valuation of the maritime unit.

This looks like something much more significant than simply a boost to 2018 t/o.

[catch007] 22/3/2018 12:28

More good news an additional £800k turnover in 2018. Two weeks to the results and hopefully we may see an share price uptick. Still wondering if the results will have news of a further acquisition. I hope so! GLA

[humphries1] 22/3/2018 07:54

TP Group plc

("TP Group" or the "Company" or the "Group")



Carbon dioxide equipment contract win



TP Group (AIM: TPG), the specialist services and engineering group, is pleased to announce that it has been awarded a follow-on contract worth £0.8 million to supply additional carbon dioxide treatment equipment for fitment to a new-build submarine as part of an existing overseas programme.



This order is the second in a multi-unit programme for the latest design of TPG's carbon dioxide systems that are smaller, lighter and quieter than their predecessors. The equipment will be built across the TPG Engineering facilities and is expected to be delivered in 2018.



Phil Cartmell, Chief Executive Officer of TP Group commented:

"This contract reinforces our position as innovators in the management of carbon dioxide and is further evidence of our reputation with global prime contractors, and contributes to our continuing growth in overseas markets.

[catch007] 16/3/2018 09:20

Ty PA I just wondered when I read the RNS. No news no movement until the results I suspect now.

[pavey ark] 15/3/2018 22:55

catch007,

I wouldn't think so but I don't know anything about Nature Group.
All the indications have been that the acquisitions would be on the MS side with perhaps a smallish engineering add on.