Tp Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2018 21:52

The only time the house broker gets interested is when there is some corporate activity, and they can earn a fee. They earn nothing from market-making. The sad thing is that fewer and fewer brokers will cover small and micro caps as a result of MiFIDII.

The lack of research will throw up some huge bargains, but they may stay bargains for a very long time. Dividend flows or takeovers may prove to be the best way to get returns.

[pavey ark] 23/4/2018 21:16

Yes I've been there before with information I've received.
"Lumpy orders" does seem as though they were just scrabbling around looking for something to say.
The house broker has suggested there is more to be addded to the order book from the MoD contracts and with the flow of orders since the year end I think they should define "lumpy".
Analysts trying to value yet another small company seldom get the full picture but the main point missed here is that an initial, seemingly large and random order in the maritime gives twenty years (+)of maintenance work which must smooth out the lumps.
Not really complaining though as we can't expect a company the size of TPG to get real grown up analysts work on it.
I was less than impressed by the house broker's efforts.
Although the house broker's report was very positive ( as you would expect) I didn't get the impression that it had taken a great deal of time and effort.

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2018 18:37

I've got the note, but due to constraints, it can only be used internally. Sorry!

There are no figures, just comments on the meeting. They also talk about lumpiness of the order book.

It's generally a positive piece, but lots to be done to achieve shareholder value creation.

[pavey ark] 23/4/2018 18:24

tiltonboy, that's rather cryptic and I'm really none the wiser regarding their opinion on TPG.
On possible explanation is that the defence element couldn't be sold to just anyone without some sort of reaction from the MoD and other foreign defence agencies.
Who knows?
Do you have the full note or is that it?

[catch007] 23/4/2018 16:12

mciw A fair and reasonable view re Corac long term holders. Hopefully in time the averaging down will come good for you.

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2018 15:50

Peel Hunt have put a note out following their meeting with management last week.

"There is clearly value in this stock but it could be difficult to unlock" is how they summarise.

[mciw] 23/4/2018 10:17

PA - Yes, i noticed this at the time, gives me confidence in the mgmt. ability to identify targets which can immediately add to the bottom line, there are a number of additional payout clauses based in profitability, perhaps to be triggered this year based on these numbers?Catch - I think the issue may be that we still have a number of shareholders like myself, who hold from the Corac days and are still nursing a loss, participating in the open offer and buying in the market at c.6p has brought the average down but still some way to go! Overall moving in the right direction....just a bit slower than expected, at least from a share price perspective. Marine still looks strong, new acquisitions and move to services also positive, my only concern remains in the realisation of the turnaround in non marine engineering following the significant investment, if this can be achieved then I'm hoping for 10p plus within 12 months.

[pavey ark] 23/4/2018 09:17

Interesting little piece at the end of the results where management said that if the two acquisitions were in place for the whole of 2017 the revenue would have been c.£33m and operating loss would come down to £67k.Given that they had one off impairment charges of £500k , one off option charge of £375k and additional acquisition cost of £240k this would have been an operating profit of over £1m.Even ignoring the one off charges working back from the £67k gives an EBITDA of over £3m had the acquisitions been operating for the entire year.A paper exercise but management must have a fair idea as to how things are going.I also noticed that somewhere in the results they said that £2m was spent on equipment etc in the business yet only £1m shows as a capital expense.The rules have certainly been tightened as to what can go down as a capital expense and the "missing million" would certainly not flatter the final results.I consider that the results were better than they looked at first or even second glance but still much to be done this year.

[catch007] 20/4/2018 19:48

I don't believe anyone buying this stock in recent years expected to make a killing overnight. It is a turnaround story with some very encouraging signs and it continues imho to be a longer term value play as I have consistently stated IF they deliver the strategy. I certainly don't consider my investment as dead money...in fact PA and I both bought recently at what we considered to be a compelling price (mine at 5.25p) so we have benefited slightly from a small share price uplift. The debate is healthy and we have long term holders posting on the BB whilst we may differ at times in our investment views everyone is here to see the company do well and as a result we hopefully will all profit. The investment adage is always better to travel than arrival and the TPG journey is still evolving. GLA

[paulgo] 20/4/2018 15:44

I can only buy 1k on Halifax at 6.188p, yes that's 1000, but can sell 200k at 6.01p I think someone needs some stock.

[pavey ark] 20/4/2018 11:59

As I said, I'm perfectly happy with the company's performance being judged on adjusted EBITDA.
I know that not everyone agrees and "everyone is entitled to an opinion"but the £2.6m was earned and did enter TPG accounts the fact that it did not find its way to the bottom line doesn't reduce the amount earned.
I was speaking to a friend who was a CFO of a very large company and I made other enquires and it seems that the rules have been changed recently and much more must go through the P/L account that in the past.
Previously much more of the expenditure was allowable as a capital expense.
TPG has lots of cash and people do expect them to spend it but it is still there and some expenditure had to go through the P/L account.

My friend was baffled by the £370k option sum and I understand this was also brought up at the institutional presentation.
This looks like very new legislation that obviously impacted on the bottom line.

In short, the company isn't burning cash and is spending the generated income (£2.6m) in the business.

My only problem now is the projections for the MS (services) unit and I've sent a number of questions to TPG so we will see what happens.
In short the broker is predicting a small profit this year and well over a million next year and I don't see why there should be a delay if acquired companies are supposed to hit the ground running....watch this space !!!

[tiltonboy] 20/4/2018 09:31

MIFID ll has got a lot to answer for.

[pavey ark] 20/4/2018 08:53

LL , careful reading of my post will show that I was suggesting that there may be "arrangements" out with the guidelines set down.

Not being dogmatic about this just suggesting that a market maker COULD gather shares for an order that hasn't been formally made.

Thanks for the detailed post and nice to see an opening buy of 100k.

Just a late thought: the share trades in question yesterday amounts to less than 0.8% of the total shares in issue.I would suggest that regulation on this scale would certainly restrict the market.
Not a big deal though and again thanks for the detailed post.

[larry laffer] 20/4/2018 08:08

PA

"It could be that the MMs can source stock from somewhere (a willing seller)but they could have built up shares..........."

I think you will find that MM's employ systems to do the exact opposite. They absolutely dread holding any shares overnight when a market closes. They have no control of what happens when the market closes and before it re-opens and therefore don't take the risk. It would put them out of business quickly.

When the new rules came in recently they were regulated to force any companies doing so into declaring their holdings even if they are transient i.e. mid order execution whereby they buy just before market closes and still hold immediately the market opens for the next session.

In the abscence of such a notification its safe to assume they don't hold a notifiable amount and their source of shares is a willing seller or sufficient existing orders on their book to match them.

[tiltonboy] 19/4/2018 17:16

Hopefully they can generate some buying interest.

[pavey ark] 19/4/2018 16:48

It could be that the MMs can source stock from somewhere (a willing seller)but they could have built up shares knowing that the institutions would (could ?) only buy after the results.
A lot goes on with a nod and a wink and we are left outside.

Good to see some decent volume though and it may continue as I think management are in the city for the rest of the week.

[tiltonboy] 19/4/2018 14:58

...and it looks like they are getting stock from a willing seller.

[pavey ark] 19/4/2018 14:50

Kiwihope, I too have been investing for some time certainly like to think I know what I'm doing.
Three years ago I got thing very wrong though and lost a fair amount on a heavily indebted oil company and being smart enough I took stock and made a rule that I would only invest in companies with cash.
I have one company that has a small amount of debt but I expect that debt has gone by now.
I did look down your posts on other companies expecting to find your catchall "this price could fall 30% if something goes wrong, but I'm not saying what"
It seems that only TPG is on your warning,danger list.

Two years ago I spelt out the then merits of TPG but your theme then as now was "Oh I don't know things could go wrong"
Even with todays depressed price you could have easily have doubled your money and had the security that the company that was giving you this excellent return was cash rich and winning orders.

I don't suppose you have worked out that if your disaster scenario hits TPG it would also hit other companies and present an opportunity for TPG.

Finally I have invested fairly heavily in TPG and it is my largest investment BUT my eyes are open and even now I am pursuing an issue I've spotted.
When I get clarification I will reassess and react accordingly.

There is much to like with TPG and from what I see from your other posts it is the one that should give you the least worry.

For others: The management team are in the City today, doing the round of the institutional investors so the jump in trade volume will be coming from them.

[bullster] 19/4/2018 12:39

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Trading rising

14:36:29 5.89 GBX 10,190 £599.99
14:03:34 6.00 GBX 35,000 £2,098.60
12:47:49 5.95 GBX 400,000 £23,800.00 #
12:26:33 5.90 GBX 2,000,000 £118,000.00 #
12:25:25 5.90 GBX 500,000 £29,500.00 #
12:25:18 5.90 GBX 1,500,000 £88,500.00 #
11:50:17 5.90 GBX 2,500,000 £147,500.00 #
11:10:59 5.85 GBX 400,000 £23,400.00 #
10:06:14 5.89 GBX 18,500 £1,089.28
09:37:28 5.81 GBX 300,000 £17,436.00 #
09:26:53 5.82 GBX 250,000 £14,555.00 #
09:23:46 5.82 GBX 105,850 £6,162.59
09:17:36 5.82 GBX 58,150 £3,385.49
08:30:43 5.89 GBX 33,291 £1,960.17

# Trade reported as: Large in Scale, Deferral

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[azalea] 19/4/2018 12:34

1150hrs 2.5M trade @ 5.9p.

[kiwihope] 19/4/2018 09:36

Oh Pavey, what has happened to you? Did I really say...

"...but people don't usually go on a public forum and say "look out folks if something really drastic happens (and I'm not saying what) this share price could fall 30%."

I am a holder of TPG shares. On balance I think the company will do well. I want it to do well. I hope there is no setback operationally. We are on the same side (heaven help us if I was negative about the company and a seller!!).

For the very last time, in response to an earlier post I was simply trying to explain what I thought had to happen for the share price to increase and stay there (i.e. not a short-term spike up). In addition I pointed out that I think the present share price is supported largely by the company's future potential. It doesn't pay a dividend. It doesn't make after-tax profits. It's cash is less than half the valuation.

This is fine as long as the story stays good. I have been investing in shares for 20 years and I have seen many cases when similar companies do hit a problem and the share price drops more than might be expected. That is all I was saying. You admit this can happen to any company (so I assume you include TPG as one of "any companies").

Pavey my friend, you must be very careful you do not fall in love with this company. You are showing some worrying signs. Please keep your eyes open and at least consider the possibility that something might go wrong.

[napoleon 14th] 19/4/2018 00:04

Enjoyable, educated thread on the whole ( if you 4get the trolls ) by balanced peeps who all have valid pointS of view.

I viewed the results favourably.
The market didm't.
I have nothing aginst the company & would have mildly re-rated the stock on the back of that.
The market didn't.
Kiwi has TWO very valid pointS.

As FXPO has been badly beaten uP for no real reason ( down c. a 1/3rd in a month ) & with steel prices recovering fast, I sold the 2nd 1/3rd of my TPG & bought FXPO.

The market is not always right, can be very wrong like 2007/2008, but investments are a game where you have to outsmart the errors. The more you want to make money, the harder you have to play it that way.

IMO the trend on TPG is wrong but holding the shares is dead money...
I'll keep watching & can re-invest as & when the trend rights itself, but for now I see better trends elsewhere ( DTY, FXPO, GRG & RTN for eg.).

LET THE TREND BE YOUR FRIEND!

P.S. PTY is also OUT of my PF today, as the market has not re-rated the shares on the back of good results. To make things worse, founder Phil Swinstead is liquidating his 11% bit by bit, which puts a lid on share price movements.
Bought DTY @ 1090p, which could get back to 1900p in six months.

[swiss paul] 18/4/2018 21:57

If house broker report then it aint worth jack. Its a piece of PR