Totally Share Discussion Threads

[grahamwales] 12/11/2017 11:49

For information.

The competition as it stands.

The Directors believe that Vocare is one of only a few companies in its field operating on a national basis. The other companies include Care UK, The Hurley Group, Virgin Care and Greenbrook Healthcare.

[microscope] 12/11/2017 11:08

After three months or so without the ability to trade, no doubt there will have been weak holders who needed or wanted to sell for whatever reason, whether it be for family holiday, Christmas or whatever, so the move down hasn't surprised me. As i mentioned, i don't hold but am interested, because I think this company has an exciting and positive future.

What the negative posters I think miss is that the business model here is changing to one that from now on will blend affordable care with profit for the company. The talk of another acquisition early in the new year (in the interview it was noted there are only 2-3 other companies providing a wide variety of services, and the implication it would be one of them) means that, if it happens, Totally will be in a dominant position in its market, always the sort of business i look to have a stake in.

Given the current market cap, probably not far off half of which is in cash, that presents tremendous opportunity for investors at this sort of shareprice imho. As i am a bit of a chartist geek I will probably wait a bit longer, but little doubt in my mind I will make an investment here at some point.
I will continue to give my honest opinions, neither looking to ramp or deramp! ;)

[grahamwales] 12/11/2017 10:09

Gerald

Missed that programme what was it called.

[pugugly] 12/11/2017 09:01

savage: Do not let the trolls get at you - We seem to have 3 types of posters here - The perpetual bulls who are blind to any negatives - Those who are only interested in healthcare and the nhs and seem to lack commercial reality - and those like you and I who are (hopefully) looking at TLY as a potential investment for our hard to come by and easy to lose capital. Your work area must put you closer to the clinical workface than many - if not all here - so I at least appreciate your incisive input.

[geraldus] 12/11/2017 08:43

BBC on OOH now.

[grahamwales] 11/11/2017 22:48

Grassie 11223344 whatever you call yourself, are you a member of this group?

We are an independent pressure group that campaigns to protect and improve the NHS, keeping it true to its founding principles.

We are a voluntary organisation and not allied to any political party.

Our funding comes from supporters who work as health professionals and the general public, from grant making trusts and the trade unions.

We have been campaigning in support of the NHS since 1989.

[grahamwales] 11/11/2017 22:26

Can’t open it 11223344 can you count up to 10?

[thegrassisgreener] 11/11/2017 22:24

Bedtime reading for you GW
hxxp://www.nhsforsale.info/private-providers/totally-plc.html
Details of Northern Doctors/vocare/vocare services (TLY)

[sikhthetech] 11/11/2017 20:48

Pug,

So tell us how much was the property sold for before the leaseback?
You'll then see whether you and savage's guess at 10% is high or not...

Savage admitted he knows nothing about commercial property yields..

you say TLY could benefit from any property price rises???? TLY are not a property investment company, are they???.

What about all the GP surgeries, shops, businesses, supermarkets who sell the freehold and leaseback, could they not benefit from the rising property prices??

and look at the same Savilles link... London property prices are softening.... so you must agree, all London property owners must sell now before the crash, no???



So tell us how much was the property sold for before leaseback?

Is that ALL you and savage could find???

[pugugly] 11/11/2017 20:05

sikh - It looks as though savage may have something in saying 10% is a high rent. See from Savills below, prime yield for Jan 16 Dec 16 and Jan 17. A lot will however also depends on the type and terms of the lease and whether full repairing or not - 10% is about double the Savills figures for provincial offices. Also (assuming commercial property is still increasing in value Vocare now TLY will have lost any growth value (assuming the property was freehold)

Prime yields Provincial Offices 4.75% 5.25% 5.25%



The 40 odd page Allenby report is down for reading - hopefully tomorrow - but several ahead of it and I suspect TLY shars not going anywhere fast so will be one that gets postponed if time runs out

A great Sunday to all.

[grahamwales] 11/11/2017 10:06

Savage

Sorry I was just being a little sarcastic when I said they didn't know about the sale of the offices, yes they would have known about the sale bearing in mind they be looking at this takeover well before they sold in June.

The Allenby report doesn't go into to much detail I guess perhaps because who they sold to and what terms would have been confidential, Totally would be aware but I doubt the buyers would want it made public.

Certain things are meant to stay confidential.

Most good companies have cash reserves built up to see them through the quiet spells especially if they are know from past history, if you look at Vocare's accounts they weren't loss making and being a not for profit company no doubt used up the cash to make sure they were not in substantial profit.

1. Agree on the competent management and that's where I see the major cost reductions, it will take a little time for Wendy/Bob and their team to get to grips but changes will be made if they feel they are required they have proved ths in the past.

2. At the moment we do not know if there are any poor contracts, just ones that Vocare have not been performing good enough, so not sure what your point is on that one.

3. I think they explained why costs have risen so much, those new people had to be trained, there were obviously recruitment costs i.e Advertising, agency fees etc etc. They would have bourne the cost of these in prior years so would again expect to see cost reductions. Didn't the new financial director used to work for Care UK, as for Bob Holt he has done wonders at Mears and if he does the same for Totally (which by the way he says has much more potential) then I would be more than happy. In fact I would say all the board has the past experience to make this a very successful company and with the backing of major institutions will no doubt become a market leader in private healthcare.

You have obviously spent a lot of time trying to find negatives so far, if you are serious about investing in Totally then perhaps you should also look for the positives, if you have no intention of investing in this company then why waste your time researching, wouldn't it be better spent looking at something you do want to invest in?

ATB

[microscope] 11/11/2017 09:49

You're not being negative then? Wouldn't like to see you when you are :D And you say you haven't read the report fully then find snippets on pages 21 and 70, seemingly about all you can muster - the sort of spiel shorters etc would come out with - to raise pretty minor concerns.

Graham is of course correct and this business is well placed to return a profit, though that will probably be 1-2 years hence imho. Increase in staffing for example is a sign of growth in an industry that is always going to be people intensive and means they are better placed to win contracts, because they can offer more services. Wouldn't panic too much about office costs either, given that Totally raised 17 million earlier this year! :)

Growth is assured because no government can afford a truly free health service any more, and even Labour are accepting that these outsourced businesses can't be run any longer as charities (highly relevant to TLY, very far from 'guff' or other attempts to deflect the debate from an important point).

There's plenty company specific stuff out there, this company is not short of newsflow. Perhaps you should invest time reading that, as you will find lots about contracts etc all of which are, in your words, 'company specific'.

Enjoy your weekend.

. .

[savagedstock] 11/11/2017 00:32

Graham
They did not miss the info re office sale...it says in my post it is page 21....it's there so disclosed. What they don't do is the next common sense step...justify 200k a year rent....and in the interests of transparency who did the sale and leaseback. I am assuming nothing, simply looking at all the possibilities available...it's up to the company to provide transparency not me...

On your other point on the business being funded by cash reserves....it is not backed up by the vocare accounts. Again look at my post. ...page 20. Your point is interesting but not relevant for a financial investment. Why should a business turning over 70 million rely on cash reserves....only if it is loss making. But they generated the cash by not paying people not by having a huge wedge lying about for a rainy day. It is that straight forward...look at the difference between operating cash flow and working capital ...it's all there.
I am not being negative just looking at the business without rose tinted spectacles...
This can be turned around by 1. Strong and competent management team 2. Ditching poor contracts 3. Changing working methods...they went from 600 employees to 1600 in 3 years....you can't make money with that in a very heavy fixed cost business 4. Bringing pay in line with performance. ..and so on....I see no 9ne on the board with the necessary skill set...bob holt made money managing property at Mears the dom care business is a disaster...70 million turnover 1 million if losses in the last statement....looks familiar?

The PR guff coming out is interesting for a pub chat but useless for making a rationale investment decision. My guess is you will see lots of contracts walked away from thinning of the workforce and a business with a net margin of between 0 and 2%....in good years they'll make a couple of million. 10x PE on that is the current market price.....
Any info that is specific to this company would be great....not endless tomes on outsourcing....

[grahamwales] 10/11/2017 20:52

Totally would have provided Allenby all the information in the report so I guess they must have missed the fact that the office had been sold. Do you honestly believe that they hadn’t gone over the accounts prior to the purchase bearing in mind the length of time it took.

As I say good that you are taking an interest. Any information is good information and gets us looking deeper into the company

[grahamwales] 10/11/2017 20:41

Savage

You forgot to mention that losses were funded by cash reserves due to it being a seasonal business.


Management expect a return to profit in the second half of the year which is when Totally take over.

As for the building as you don’t know how long the lease is and who in fact they sold it to you are assuming a lot. Good that your taking an interest though and no doubt will change your stance once you have taken a position here.

[grahamwales] 10/11/2017 20:22

One for you

[sikhthetech] 10/11/2017 11:23

The point here is the new proposals on integrated care...

"New guidance this year for the commissioning of integrated urgent care services by the NHS will make them even more important."

"At present, the clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) that award contracts for the NHS can put out to tender each of the 111 helpline, urgent care and out-of hours GP services separately, which usually results in different providers for each service.

Going forward, CCGs have to tender for Integrated Urgent Care Services and therefore a single organisation will be able to provide all three services."

[sikhthetech] 09/11/2017 22:17

There's been talk of re-nationalising the Railways, since they were Privatised 20yrs ago... and we've had all 3 parties in power since...

Although the risk is there of any political party changing the way the NHS system works, companies normally adapt to those changes.... HAs then CCGs and now also STPs...

There have been private companies working within the NHS for decades, again under both parties..

The NHS are paying thousands a day for agency staff....

[porky8] 09/11/2017 21:59

Agree ...... Far easier to spin out ....... Than reel back in ........ Logistical nightmare ........

[grahamwales] 09/11/2017 21:45

When Corbyn was running in the Election he made a lot of promises he knew he could not keep and had a very good idea labour would not win so would not have to keep to those promises.

Next election he will be thinking he can win (god help he country if he does) so he will be more realistic in his promises.

Dismantling the private sector of the NHS will cause it collapse and result in even more money having to be pumped in just to stand still.