The Artisanal Spirits Share Discussion Threads

[sll] 26/9/2007 08:07

Have just skimmed through the preliminary results and am fairly pleased. Not sure that these results could have been much better, all round, given present market conditions & uncertainties. Further, the forward commentary is characteristically realistic, measured and balanced - as it consistently has been since Michael Stevens took the helm. My own recent re-investment case, here, was built on 4 main legs - 1. the assumption that UK rates had now peaked (a view which Michael Stevens and his team appear to share), 2. the Team's canny approach to re-growing their group - in now 3 clear divisions of activity, 3. a maintenance of the long-held view that Artisan's rating remains over-penalised by 'a past' that it has long since shed, and 4. a belief that they can continue to grow, albeit steadily, from this carefully worked platform, with the benefit of RBS' backing. Although the residential market will clearly remain very tough, Artisan's customers fall into the 'buy to live' category and won't 'go away' so readily as those of other larger players in this sector, who are more exposed to the London hot spots and to apartments etc.

[bobdown2] 24/9/2007 22:52

get a surveyor in the trench is collapsing.

[bobdown2] 21/9/2007 10:12

looks like the first brick on a footing.....nice to see a change of share price direction.

[shawzie] 18/9/2007 15:37

it could be a cold winter

[loganair] 18/9/2007 13:33

Bought Woolies instead. I still have a holding in ART.

[sll] 13/9/2007 21:29

Northern Rock's yield may be at 6% for a reason.

[gizzimodo] 13/9/2007 13:04

loganair - maybe you have a point, if the dividend were raised it may attract investors it will be interesting to see what the final dividend is when the results are announced.

[loganair] 13/9/2007 12:41

I thinking of selling. There are plenty of shares around with a 6% yield and at or around their 52 week lows. Northern Rock and United Utilites to name but two. Their dividend is safe with a good possibility of a substantial rise in their respective share price

In a years time the Artisan share price may if one is lucky be in the region of £1.90, I can see it being no higher.

[sll] 07/9/2007 13:46

gj - It would appear from the trickle of small sells, that the shareholder base continues to consolidate. This may be to the benefit of any future corporate action by, or on, Artisan. It also helps re-stock the MMs to be able to oblige any prospective larger buyers - who presumably would take a contrarian view as to medium term UK interest rates. Incidentally, RBS are now calling the next MPC move down to 5.50% - in the first half of calendar 2008, so perhaps the term 'contrarian' is now misplaced.

[sll] 05/9/2007 16:43

gj - have they not pre-announced that 160 res units were sold in the extended 15 months versus a pro-rata lower number to march 2006? have a look at the 20/7/7 announcement.

ps - have just re-checked it and it was 160 v 107 (which pro-rates up to circa 134), albeit the latest 15 months includes 2 spring periods (apr/jun) and the average unit price may have fallen in line with the trend towards smaller, more affordable, homes. even so, I like the way that ART have modified the product to suit changing market needs and affordability.

[gjabrj] 05/9/2007 15:17

Let's hope for a rerating after the results.

I am hoping to see an increase in residential units sold with the potential to further increase sales with the increased land bank and sites under development.

[sll] 05/9/2007 15:12

Well spotted gj - yes 'guilty as charged'.

[gjabrj] 05/9/2007 15:01

SLL, is that you topping up again?

[sll] 01/9/2007 12:14

gj - No date yet, but 'end of September' was mentioned. I too am looking to add here. Don't think the market has really thought through the wider implications of recent global events. I now don't see UK base rates rising to 6.00% any time soon, whereas one month ago that looked odds on - with maybe 6.25% to follow in short order. I would now guess that 5.75% may have 'done the job' based on the last inflation figures and the cooling of demand (generally) that will typically follow an equity market shake out and attendant uncertainty. I fully expect the housing and property markets to cool somewhat, maybe to a standstill in the hitherto hotspots, but ART is relatively well placed in fairly defensible niches and well away from the roller coaster of London and its close environs. I am not however suggesting that ART is impregnable - far from it. But the recently cited doubts about 'monetary policy' may (perversely) have cleared quite a bit given the recently unfolding events. Indeed, much as Mervyn King would not want to, irked as he clearly is by events elsewhere, rates might even have to be pegged back a bit if the Fed and the ECB are bullied into cutting on the back of sub-prime et al. It will be 'interesting' for sure. bw, steve

[gjabrj] 01/9/2007 08:58

I have been here since 99 (If my memory serves me right). I have held in the hope that the new management can turn things around. I now beleive they have and hope to add pre results.

Have the results date been announced yet ?

[sll] 31/8/2007 18:16

shawzie - thanks and noted. I am puzzled by the relatively high market capn of speymill, but I have not studied this stock, beyond a brief glance following your post. However, if they can't pay the rent, ART can always eject them and either find someone who can, or sell the building on.
loganair - I have sympathy for your view, given the (presumably inflated) entry point for your own shares. I think you would find that 'significant' others also found that they were induced to 'over-pay' for their shares in this stock. I have mixed views on dividend. If ART can demonstrate real organic growth in its extended fy2007 results, I would be inclined to vote for no dividend in return for more growth - given the real need to build 'scale' here. That (scale) is arguably what is presently missing, and what the RBS support is intended to provide - absent an acquisition, which ART's present market rating presumably precludes. I tried for 10k today at a 166p limit and was denied. This 163p/168p pricing seems pretty solid despite the trickle of (presumably) forced (or bored) sellers.

[loganair] 31/8/2007 17:37

Only 10p to go until I finally break-even. Yes, ART seems to have done all the right things with however their share price not doing too much.

ART share price is a long way of, if my memory serves me correctly of the dim distant past, back in the dark ages of approximately 20p or as it would be now £8.

Just wondering if ART is likely to pay a dividend this year, even if like last years only a small one. ART is now a profitable company, just another small reward for sticking with them.

[shawzie] 31/8/2007 14:21

SLL
I am still invested in ART (have been for several years) although I have reduced my holding substantially and taken profits.
My interest in Speymill was rekindled by the news that Artisan and Speymill
would be sharing the new investment property.
You no doubt know the history of Speymill, Wigmore, etc., but having lost sight of Speymill on my radar screen, I wondered if they had survived and could pay the rent to Artisan.
I was pleasantly surprised to find that Speymill (SYG) had not only survived but seems to be on the verge of profitability and thriving.
As an aside SD is involved with Griffin Holdings and appears to be up to his
old tricks. You are correct in that we ought not to dwell on the past but
we often find the answer to present situations in antecedent events.

[sll] 31/8/2007 12:21

shawzie - I fear that looking back to the SD era, et al, is doing just that, "looking back". Just over 3 years back I first called ART 'undervalued' on here. The price was circa 140p (or 3.5p-ish then, before the recent 1for40 consolidation) compared to circa 170p today. Looking forward (from now) as opposed to looking forward (from then) what has changed as a new start point?

1 - Long running legal cases and attendant threats are all closed off - and favourably.
2 - Management is streamlined and simplified - the two main profitable divisions are both now main board represented and key personnel have remained 'on the case'.
3 - A strong and determined finance person is in charge of the group, with all the relevant background and sector experience to not get 'carried away'. The NED's are also v experienced, v savvy and v consistent.
4 - 3 year's of solid, if not spectacular, profits have also been delivered.
5 - The chairman (who has stuck to it throughout and who has given this stock the stability it so badly needed) has invested yet more of his own money into the company, and now controls virtually 30%.
6 - In part due to Michael Stevens' investments and in part due to retained profits, the NAV has grown steadily throughout the period.
7 - RBS have provided material growth funding on flexible rolling terms. (RBS have 'property' as one of their top sectors and they retain very deep pockets for solid asset-backed proposals, notwithstanding the presently acute credit market turbulence).
8 - The shareholder base (and the cost of managing that base) has been neatly culled from some 11+k of 'names' to circa 5k (or probably less today as holders continue to consolidate).
9 - A small but not insignificant dividend was paid to those shareholders who elected to survive the cull of the recent consolidation.
10 - IFRS has been adopted ahead of schedule.
11 - New brokers have been appointed.
12 - The year end has been changed to a more appropriate sector relevant June.
13 - A commercial property investment arm (albeit still a fledgling) has been established, no doubt after very careful review of all the options and costs.
14 - We are told that the need for housing (to live in not 'BuyToLet') still far outstrips the available supply and there is now considerable doubt over the Government's commitment to (in effect) build on flood plains et al given this year's flooding. That + routine planning difficulties will inevitably continue to impinge on future supply.
15 - Interest rates have remained benign-ish but may not now rise so fast or so far as was thought to be the case just 2 months ago, thanks to the wider credit market issues and a slowing economy.
16 - Artisan is completely unexposed to the commercial & residential property 'hot spots' like london and is also completely unexposed to 'apartments', which are not frankly everyone's cup of tea, despite the style gurus who insist we should live in a flat and cook dinner in the lounge.

Now in light of all the above factors, we have indeed seen share price growth of some 22% over 3 years - not much above 7% per annum and not stellar by any measure. On that basis, I would incline to the view that a great deal of future disappointment and general housing/ commercial market 'sluggishness' is now priced in here, with ART still trading quite profitably on a discount to TNAV of some 25% before the forthcoming results add yet more wool to this particular sheep's back.

[shawzie] 15/8/2007 12:49

Answer to first part of my own question is yes.
Stephen Dean did come back into the Wigmore and German scene when Artisan
completed the sale of its holdings in Wigmore.
www.speymill.com

Speymill Group Plc is a property management company currently focused on managing assets in the German property market. The group has been listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange since January 2002.

Speymill (Formerly known as Wigmore Plc) and its three subsidiaries Speymill Contracts Ltd, Blanchards and First National Property and Maintenance were acquired by Burnbrae in 2005. The group has since been renamed and restructured and both Blanchards and FNPM have been sold. The remaining subsidiary Speymill Contracts Ltd, is a provider of commercial construction and refurbishment services to the Hotel and Leisure industries Holdings - Speymill Group Plc
www.speymill.com

Speymill Group Plc is a property management company currently focused on managing assets in the German property market. The group has been listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange since January 2002.

Speymill (Formerly known as Wigmore Plc) and its three subsidiaries Speymill Contracts Ltd, Blanchards and First National Property and Maintenance were acquired by Burnbrae in 2005. The group has since been renamed and restructured and both Blanchards and FNPM have been sold. The remaining subsidiary Speymill Contracts Ltd, is a provider of commercial construction and refurbishment services to the Hotel and Leisure industries

[shawzie] 09/8/2007 10:43

Speymill? Is this the company that Artisan sold to Wigmore? Is Stephen Dean still connected with Speymill ? Does anyone know?

[gjabrj] 07/8/2007 10:10

Lets hope so goldent, we could do with some positive newsflow to get the shareprice moving.

[goldent] 06/8/2007 17:08

Another 10000 @ 167p today. There has been a lot of trades at that size & price over past month or so, is someone stake buiding???

[bobdown2] 27/7/2007 14:12

prefer viagra...more sustainable than artisan...hard to believe but just watch it drop back down....after thought..a penny rise on artisan is rather exciting

[daz1966] 27/7/2007 09:42

A movement ! and its up !