Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 13/12/2019 01:02

If the exit polls are correct I think we could see massive increases in share prices across the board Imho we could very easily see these open up 10/15/20p,

[doyden] 12/12/2019 22:14

I hope the exit poll is reasonably accurate. I'm certainly feeling a bit more comfortable than I was earlier!TW looking good for £2 again very soon if the results come in inline with the poll.

[eeza] 12/12/2019 22:10

Sterling up almost 3 cents.

[eeza] 12/12/2019 18:43

The young have no experience of the ravages of socialism but are attracted to the 'freebies' (to them) on offer. If they turn out in force they could well sway the result. Alternatively a large turnout could be wavering Leavers finding something between their legs.

But squeaky bum time for Bojo.

I don't see 190p if a hung Parliament or Corby minority ( with acquiessense of the rabble minors).

[eeza] 12/12/2019 17:09

Large turnout usually favours Labour.

Could be 170p or less by EOD tomorrow.

[jugears] 12/12/2019 16:43

I'm looking at nearer £1.90

[onehanded] 12/12/2019 13:41

28 majority now predicated for conservatives, will be £1.80 by end of tomorrow. Any shorters will be closing quickly.

[disneydonald] 11/12/2019 17:28

Hi Jugs, well I'm not sure we will see record profit this year, given operating margin was down ~ 2% at half year. Wimps have guided a slight recovery back towards 20% operating margin for year end. So we will have to see, and depending on how the last few weeks of trading has gone, as they will know pretty much the final figures this week, or so. Maybe they will close a few more high value sales in Central London in next week or so if Tories get a clear win, which will help revenue.

[m4rtinu] 11/12/2019 15:22

Where I live we have had rain for the last 3 months, nearly every day. My brother-in-law is a bricky, so I should check with him, to see how busy he has been. Thanks for your insight Jugs.

[jugears] 11/12/2019 09:20

Wfl,Although that has a lot to do with the election & Brexitt the wet weather certainly hasn't help.I have had many orders put back recently due to water logged sites across the whole industry.Despite this we have once again achieved record turnover & profit this year & have quoted more work in the last 4 months than we have in the last 3 years, That tells me confidence is returning & that I should have a good couple of years ahead .

[garycook] 11/12/2019 01:34

Jugears,Always read your post,and totally agree with you.Long term TW will be a £3 share.

[wfl1970] 10/12/2019 14:19

Although the service sector expanded 0.2% in the August-to-October period, that was offset by a 0.7% contraction in manufacturing and 0.3% fall in construction. The ONS said there had been "a notable drop in housebuilding and infrastructure in October".

[jugears] 10/12/2019 11:40

Garycook- Good post, Hopefully if Boris gets in with a majority we could see £2 by Christmas & certainly a good rally in the share price Friday/Monday.

[garycook] 09/12/2019 02:19

Shares in two of the UK’s largest housebuilding groups, Persimmon (LSE: PSN) and Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW), look deeply undervalued. According to my calculations, they have the potential to produce a total return for investors of more than 30% next year.

Income and growth
My forecast is based on a combination of their income and capital growth. At the time of writing, City analysts expect Persimmon to distribute a dividend equivalent to 9.5% of its current share price next year. Meanwhile, Taylor Wimpey is scheduled to throw off a dividend yield of around 10.5%.

I have no reason to doubt these forecasts based on the information currently available. Both are generating a tremendous amount of cash from their operations, and have cash-rich balance sheets with no debt. On top of this, the demand for new houses in the UK is only increasing.

Both political parties are promising to increase home building across the UK if they’re elected into power next week. So, as long as there’s no dramatic change in the political environment over the next 12-months (or Labour decides to nationalise the homebuilding industry) I see no reason why these companies cannot meet the City’s income targets.

These dividend yields could be enough to help Taylor and Persimmon outperform the market in 2020 because, over the past decade, the FTSE 100 has produced an average annual total return of approximately 7%. However, I believe investors will also benefit from capital growth next year as well.

Undervalued
Political uncertainty has weighed on the share prices of home builders for the past few years. But as this uncertainty has started to lift, shares in both businesses have rallied.

Since the beginning of September, when Boris Johnson set out to finish the UK’s divorce from the EU, shares in Persimmon and Taylor have increased by 32% and 17% respectively, excluding dividends.

This suggests to me that if the Tories are elected back into power with a significant majority, these homebuilders could rally further. It’s difficult to tell what sort of market response this scenario would lead to but, according to my research, before the referendum in 2016, both were dealing at a mid-teens P/E multiple.

With their shares dealing at forward earnings multiples of 9.5 and 8.6 respectively, this suggests there could be a potential upside on offer for investors of more than 30% from the current levels.

When you add in the dividend income investors are set to receive over the next 12 months, it quickly becomes apparent these two companies have the potential to produce a return of around 40% for investors in 2020.

These are only back-of-an-envelope calculations, but I believe they clearly show how undervalued these companies are. That upside that could be on offer for investors as some degree of certainty eventually returns to the UK political scene.

[mikegsi2] 08/12/2019 23:14

Should begin to drop before holding steady through to mid Q1. Likely to drop moving into Q2 with recovery picking up at end of Q2.

[eeza] 08/12/2019 20:36

At 177.35p - historic yield is 4.31%.
Incl SD the historic yield is 10.34%

Use link below.> click on Yield at top row tab > click FTSE100 tab. > click 'include Special Dividends' tab on right. > Double click 'Annual Yield ' tab on right >
Click on arrow to right of Taylor Wimpey.

[gbh2] 06/12/2019 13:01

The only accurate percentage is retrospective because some quote the percentage based only on Dividends whilst other include the Special.

[jugears] 06/12/2019 09:32

With a fluctuating share price it's very difficult to be accurate at the moment it's about 10.5%

[uknighted] 05/12/2019 23:28

Chezhans just look at the dividends paid last year, that should give you the answer.

[chezhans] 05/12/2019 18:26

Stockpedia say dividend yield is 10%. Is that correct ?

[gbh2] 03/12/2019 08:34

Doesn't take long before the selling kicks in!

[m4rtinu] 02/12/2019 15:22

WFL - interesting article. I was surprised that producing 5,000 homes in a year would make it a top 10 housebuilder. And that's in 5 years' time.

Jugs - would be a shame if you are right.

Also, why would they be so much more energy efficient than "conventionally" built houses? As is claimed.

[jugears] 02/12/2019 13:22

I read somewhere that the 30 million was to bail the company out as it had been making losses ?

[wfl1970] 02/12/2019 07:15

Article above re. recent topic on this board...