Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[m4rtinu] 20/11/2019 08:19

I can only hope.😀 From my lefty POV I agree with media analysis that debate was even. A bit annoying that Boris wouldn't shut up when told but for others that could play either way. If anything Jezza a bit more spontaneous on quick questions. Be interesting to see if much more is made of Twitter name change by Tory party to "factcheck". But we are miles behind in most polls.

[gbh2] 20/11/2019 08:10

Market running scared that we may end up with a Corbyn government after last night's debate!

[m4rtinu] 20/11/2019 08:01

Article on investing in TW.

[craftyale] 18/11/2019 09:06

A good start to the week. I look forward to a conclusion to Brexit and the future. TW. is a good longterm investment. I remain happy to hold and reinvest my divs.

[jugears] 17/11/2019 11:37

This is not the case in the construction industry & many leave before they have compleated there apprenticeships which is bloody frustrating.

[cb7] 16/11/2019 11:04

Jugears - in some other industries apprentices or employees who gain additional costly training, are contractually tied in for a few years, until the company recoups the cost. An employee who leaves sooner, is liable to pay compensation. Is this the case in the building sector?

[clarky5150] 15/11/2019 16:44

As a long term investor in TW I have had the advantage of fantastic divis these past years so considering those 'locked in' profits its still a great investment vehicle for me.

[jugears] 15/11/2019 16:41

Doyden I agree but didn't get in until 30p but have always taken dividends as shares which I still have. Was never a fan of Bovis or Galliford Try & even less now. IMO Bovis are paying to much for Galliford homes & can't see in this climate Galliford Try will produce enough profits from construction & civil's which work on very tight margins.

[doyden] 15/11/2019 15:59

TW has been a great investment for me. Mind I did start buying in December 2008 at around the 10p mark.I'm happy to keep collecting the dividends which have long since covered my purchases.

[gbh2] 15/11/2019 09:24

Been a while since I last checked on performance and my comment re all charts being similar isn't correct, Bovis & Barratt are both well up on capital value during the last 12 months so other's that I don't follow routinely may also be out performing TW.

[gbh2] 15/11/2019 08:28

I follow GFRD and their capital loos is down 25% on last at this date, most House Builder charts are a similar shale and capital loss this last year is similar across the board, those centred in London even worse.

[marksp2011] 15/11/2019 07:44

There is no arguing with the fact that TW has been a poor investment in comparison with the other HBs. Not a great shock the "teenage scribblers" aren't great fans.
You can't argue with the numbers - pretty safe bet having them as a "hold" but not obvious why anyone would buy them over the competition.

If these were 187, I would be gone I would like to buy more BVS/GFRD and MNG

[clarky5150] 15/11/2019 07:10

TW did employ direct until the credit crunch and subsequent sell off. A close friend was a time served bricky with them. He and his brother are both good, fast layers but very quickly lost their patience with the trade after being on the end of a phone waiting for a brick barons offer for a weeks work at lower pay. Both now fit sky dishes and broadband cable.

[asa8] 14/11/2019 20:18

The best thing Tw and other volume builders to do is to employ the trades direct I know for a fact that the brick barons make about 15% on a gang of bricklayers

[m4rtinu] 14/11/2019 15:25

Posts #171 - #180. Gentlemen, thanks very much for comments on TW strategy and the housing industry.

And for once, TW. is one of the better performers in the sector today (so far!).

[gbh2] 14/11/2019 13:49

Jugears, as with shares, Investing in the future is expensive and a risk but if those sitting around Boardroom tables took a little less and gave a little more the benefits gained from well trained, well paid loyal staff would be immeasurable.

I speak from many years in an industry that had to rely on its shop floor staff to survive and more importantly, not to kill the recipients of what they were producing.

[jugears] 14/11/2019 13:22

gbh2- We pay top rates now but difficult to offer trainees a decent wage when they need to be shadowed for the first 12 months & at collage for part of that time,It cost more to train an apprentice over three years than they bring in in revenue,Investing in the future is not a problem as we can carry the cost, but if they can leave and earn more money than we can afford to pay then they will leave ,future contract or not, I am not saying they are all snowflakes its just that there is so much more jobs choice these days that this industry is no longer appealing, Who really wants to work out in the cold when they can have a nice office job that pays three times as much & probably offers a company car, Kids are much better educated these days & want to go on to better things. In years past it tended to be the not so well educated (Me Included) that came in to this industry.

[gbh2] 14/11/2019 12:46

Give kids the skills and a decent wage, offer them a Contract with Future prospects and any industry will attract Kids, not ALL are snowflakes, as the Media would have us believe.

[jugears] 14/11/2019 12:39

dD We can all speculate, Just a waiting game now first hurdle is the Tories getting back in to power with a majority & then Brexit, there must be thousands of people putting house purchases on hold now, As you say next year could be a very good year.That said we are busier than ever & struggling to cope with enquiries & not sure how we would even be able to do all the work we are pricing as we have a virtually full order book for the next 12 months, Getting good staff is a real problem for me, Whilst we train apprentices (which are becoming harder to find as kids today don't want to work in this industry) they always leave after a few years & set up on there own which is extremely frustrating, We are relying on a much older workforce than we used to & sooner or later these will want to retire & replacing them is going to be very hard.

[disneydonald] 14/11/2019 11:38

Well, you have to expect that the analysts who follow Wimps will update their guidance when they are invited to a formal update. However, I sat through the call and as usual PR does come over as spinning his presentation and answers to the upside a little and tends to answer most of the questions, even if they are perhaps best answered by the CFO. He is, and always has been a little controlling. Notwithstanding that, I think the Shore Capital analyst has chosen to take comments about a few small bulk sales to investors (which all developers do if the numbers work), and present that as bringing forward sales. I suspect his is countering PR's positive(ish) spin with his own negative(ish) spin. The value of these "forward" sales is not really significant in the grand scale of Wimps annual revenues. These investor sales were from the tail end of Central London apartments whose average selling price is over £1M. Wimps (as are other builders) offering incentives in the south to help sales and this coupled with increased expenses means a reduction in margins. Simples.

As for general business, Wimps like other builders are finding that this prolonged Brexit uncertainty is starting to have a wearing effect on the generally buoyant UK housing market, leading to slowing sales in the more expensive southern markets (especially Central London). Given we are now gearing up for a general election, and the tories have informally suggested (not in manifesto yet)reduction in SDLT, some potential buyers will defer purchase for a short while just in case. So the 4Q is always going to be a challenge to make targets.

IMHO, if we get a Tory win and they set a light under the economy in terms of tax cuts etc, then as long as they are stopped from a hard Brexit we can expect a sales to jump through next year, and as early as the key spring selling period. If not, then more uncertainty will weigh on the builders and targets will get revised downwards slightly for 2020. Wimps have lots of high margin apartments coming on stream from mid 2020 for a couple of years. If the market turns positive in Central London then it could drive operating profit margin back over 20% for a good few years.

[jugears] 14/11/2019 10:30

See how all the brokers come out of the wood worm at the same time!

[speedsgh] 14/11/2019 10:18

FWIW...

Numis downgrades Taylor Wimpey on margin uncertainty -

Numis has downgraded house builder Taylor Wimpey (TW) as it is concerned about the lack of clarity around the direction of margins.

Analyst Chris Millington downgraded his recommendation from ‘add’ to ‘hold’ with a target price of 187p after an update pointed to full-year margins coming in ‘slightly lower’ but offset by modestly higher volumes.

Millington moved estimates down 3% for 2019 and 6% for 2020 to ‘reflect a delayed downgrade from the interims’.

‘Taylor Wimpey remains attractive from a yield perspective, but until more clarity emerges over the direction of margins, we think greater certainty can be found elsewhere in the sector,’ he said.

The shares fell 2.3% to 166p yesterday.

[uknighted] 14/11/2019 10:11

The benefit would be achieving forecasts and therefore bonus targets.
They would not be the first, remember the Tesco fiasco?

[jugears] 14/11/2019 10:02

Dont see anything wrong with bringing some of next years sales in to this especially if those homes are near completion but doubt they would be accounted for in this years profit,what would be the benefit in pre paying tax on properties that are not yet fully sold & paid for. I take all broker comments with a pinch of salt Didnt Tw change broker recently & this company didnt get a look in ? Sounds a bit like sour grapes to me