Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 14/11/2019 08:46

Think it'll be a new Laptop for Christmas, my screen colours are acting up, the TW share price looks Blue at the moment.

[eeza] 14/11/2019 07:38

From an article in Shares mag

"Shore Capital analyst Robin Hardy believes the company may be bringing sales forward from 2020 to compensate for the reduced profitability and meet targets.

‘Profits are forecast to fall in 2019 so we struggle understand why the Taylor Wimpey board wants to paper over the cracks by robbing out sales from future periods.

‘The promise at the halfway (point) was that this year would see an additional 300 units sold driving additional revenues of around £90m meaning that around £18m of pre-tax profit destined for 2020 would be brought forward – while there are no hard numbers on the revised position it is not impossible that Taylor Wimpey is aiming to push this pull forward by 50-100%."


hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/the-big-news-from-taylor-wimpey-on-costs

[gbh2] 13/11/2019 18:36

That's a nice average share price to be sitting on Jugears, been a good few years since mine was so low, that said my spreadsheet indicates I've made a fraction over 4% on a total of 295,489 TW purchases since 2008, not a great percentage but a healthy number of quid, so no complaints.

I sank some of my cash into BP before I left this morning, did better than TW, dividend is around 6% so I may rebuild a decent holding there, because this last few years & (especially today) suggests to me that TW's share price has as much (if not more) to do with trading potential than it does with TW's long term holding / capital gain potential.

[jugears] 13/11/2019 16:59

Took a punt & bought a few more today, not as many as I would have liked but bought a nice junk in Tullow oil a company who's shares I inherited from my dad, not really a company I am interested in but total over reaction to trading statement saw the shares plunge & couldn't resist committing short term for profit.

[spcecks] 13/11/2019 16:21

Also happy with good RNS today.

[disneydonald] 13/11/2019 14:49

Perhaps we should ask Nigel to say a few words ...

[1carus] 13/11/2019 13:05

JUG ... Nice!!

[1carus] 13/11/2019 13:05

JUG ... Nice!!

[jugears] 13/11/2019 12:20

1carus,I must admit that the housing market has held up extremely well despite all the turmoil created by brexit & IMHO is probably waiting for lift off. Put it this way I see more chance of TW's Sp doubling in the future than say Belway & thats why I continue to hold & buy on the dips, I think my average is about 84p so either way they owe me nothing.

[1carus] 13/11/2019 12:03

Jug... I know GBH2 dips in and out of these.. he is a smarter man than me for that.. but having the confidence in a biz to start apprenticeships is good news... irrespective of the political turmoil I see another 2 years of good divi's in the can. My average on these is 1.05 and more than happy to sit on them taking 15p or more annually -- If someone said to me today, stick 100k into this and it will pay 15% for the next 5 years I'd bite there hand off. For me the share that keeps on giving!!! These are quite a large part of my holdings, and I don't particularly want more or average up my price, so I am a long term hold, you are building your stake, gbh2 dips in and out. Slightly different strategies, but this share seems to be doing us all well to some degree. Some light in this seemingly dark world at the moment. Good luck to all.

[jugears] 13/11/2019 11:48

gbh2- Tempted my self but not sure how far they will fall yet.

[gbh2] 13/11/2019 10:43

Picked up a few more, I need to go out so best price I'll see today, if I cannot get back until after 4:30.

Have a good one folks :))

[gbh2] 13/11/2019 10:33

That's the most impressive part of the Update imo, as I mentioned above it's long over due throughout the Country.

[dr_smith] 13/11/2019 10:30

Wow. DD has been doing DD. ;-) (Due diligence).
On margins, there is the comment (for long term) of investment in apprentices.

[disneydonald] 13/11/2019 10:12

Interesting cash flow challenges next year, with dividend of £610M, impact of new tax payment regime £70M and continuing drawdown on previous exceptional of ~ £50M (cladding, leasehold) giving around £730M. Also pension contribution of £40M expected next year which should be a one off. So likely that Wimps will need to reign in land purchases a little. That would suggest to me that if the market stays flat next year (they are guiding flat volumes) and builders are not able to increase margins then hard to see why share price would increase. Of course, much depends on election / Brexit outcome.

SP swing of ~ 6p so far today from early peak to current. See how next few days go once the market has digested the trading update.

[dr_smith] 13/11/2019 09:51

I note:
"albeit we have seen some increasing customer caution, particularly in the higher-priced markets of London and the South East, as a result of the ongoing political and economic uncertainty. "
Given both lab and con possibly have stamp duty favourable changes, I am guessing that is the key trigger for londoners/upmraket caution.

Mark, I note your comments with interest.
We have different preferences for how/where we invest, (e.g. I stick to FTSE350, no overseas or Trusts), so choices likely to differ.

Although HB rate is probably near flat (avoiding boom/bust) it is still a LTH for me, but will review several months after election, as I'm expecting gov spendining initiatives are lots of private sector industry/commerce initiatives that have been held back for Brext to start and will have ripple effect for employees/housing in the form of renewed confidence (I hope).

Also, if not HB, then I see very little in FTSE at present.
I note US stocks have done well, atleast in past tense.
So sticking with HB's for time being.

IMO
Dave

[gbh2] 13/11/2019 09:25

Peel Hunt 13/11 Reiterates Hold Hold
Liberum Capital 13/11 Reiterates Hold Hold
Shore Capital 13/11 Downgrades Buy Hold

[martyn9] 13/11/2019 09:24

Yes gbh2, as sure as eggs are eggs share price falls on positives.

[gbh2] 13/11/2019 09:05

This is more like the share price action we usually see on good news :))

[marksp2011] 13/11/2019 09:02

Jugs

I will hold my BWY on the possibility - empirically it has been by far the best HB investment.

You have made my point. many users of HTB didn't need it. All that has happened is the price of qualifying homes has been lifted to consume the HTB money and the end result is that there has been a big transfer from HMG==>HBs==>HB Shareholders and HB execs.

Wheteher Stopping/changing HTB has a big/small effect doesn't really matter over the next couple of years - it is more uncertainty in an uncertain market.

If you believe brexit will strengthen the UK economy in the near/medium term and HTB will have no effect then I guess HBs are the place to be......not convinced that TW is the HB of choice but that is my opinion and the Morningstar data.

[jugears] 13/11/2019 08:54

The end of HTB will have minimal effect IMHO as most people didn't need it & certainly wouldn't be selling house builders now hoping to get in cheaper later on ,they may fall back before the election but once boris gets back in brexit will go a head & things will start moving fast, I see these well over £2 by the end of next year but each to our own

[marksp2011] 13/11/2019 08:35

Offloaded my PSN holding in the wifes account for around a £28/share total return from purchase in 2011

Looking to offload all the HBs except my GFRD/BVS play (until the new year) and a little BWY (the best investment of the HBs) - I am not going to bet that HTB will be renewed in its current form. Everyone can see that HTB has distorted the market.

I was hoping for an electric burst in these today to get a bit more capital profit before bailing here too.