Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 01/8/2024 11:41

""Beckers2008 - 14 Jun 2024 - 13:53:16 - 18194 of 18243.

Remember my Statement...
BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 24 - BoE base rate to reduce.

Tw. Earnings to increase in 2025.""

Watch and learn trolls, lol, just lol!

Nothing more to see here.

[sikhthetech] 01/8/2024 11:35

Crafty,

The rate cut was expected.

Late last year, I was saying a rate cut won't happen for months.

[jugears] 01/8/2024 11:27

Sickly,so I got it wrong, move forward with your life & stop dwelling on the past, you shorted at 1.60 & got 1.58ish this morning what more do you want!
If you read my posts I said that 500k would be invested here if the share price got nearer £1.00 it hasn't & I'm not particularly bothered its earning a good interest where it is for now, whilst I expect these to push towards £2 now (easily) it wont be in a straight line though as it never is so I might still get a chance yet.
Why short at £1.60 when you were expecting rates to be cut?, Rate cuts push price up don't they?

[sikhthetech] 01/8/2024 11:22

Jugears,

I went short at 160p expecting rates to fall, so took that supposedly good news into account
;-)


Obviously you are backing your conviction and loading up that 500k at 160p.

Ot are you all mouth, Jugears????

[jugears] 01/8/2024 11:22

gbh2, Oh yes it is!

[sikhthetech] 01/8/2024 11:21

There you go, as expected.
Interest rates lowered in the summer...


Unlike Jugears who was predicting rates will be lower by January, 8 months ago!!!



JUGEARS - 17 Nov 2023 - 12:46:01 - 16955 of 18677
IMO we will see rates fall as early as January now


Wrong, let's change it to March!!! lol

JUGEARS - 01 Jan 2024 - 16:31:57 - 17299 of 18677
<...> Once interest rates start to fall & my guess is that will be around the end of March we will see the housing market pick up (not that I can see its ever declined)


wrong, yet again

[craftyale] 01/8/2024 11:12

Boe rate cut. Boom.

[gbh2] 01/8/2024 11:08

JUGS, it's not nice to wind up the afflicted :)

[jugears] 01/8/2024 11:05

oh no sickly hope you made 1p profit today or you might just get your fingers burnt, what a week this has been, RR hit £5.00, AV hit £5.00 Tw heading for £1.80 need to go & lie down now!

[kreature] 01/8/2024 05:19

If it’s so interesting, why interrupt?

[kreature] 31/7/2024 22:45

Oh, they got it all figured out….



‘ we can't rely on private developers to build the homes we need’

No, so let’s ask the hairdressers and dentists to build the houses ?

[kreature] 31/7/2024 22:37

So if the UKs 1,500 Housing Associations are cutting back on new affordable homes, will councils pick up the slack to provide more social housing instead ?

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 20:44

A lot of local councils haven't got money either.


Let's see what BoE say tomorrow. Their outlook is the important bit.

[danvandan] 31/7/2024 20:24

Sikh, I think they will do it with local incentives; most commonly, cheap brownfield land. I posted links to stories on three schemes the other day, one in Manchester. The developers are all smaller firms.

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 19:21

DVD,

Agree with your post, it's similar to I've been saying for a while.

HBs themselves want govn support, reduced interest rates, claim affordability is a problem.

The divi policy is flawed, especially in an uncertain housing market.


In addition to the points you've raised, I've also stated the following:

More and more homeowners in increasing mortgage debt. That won't ease by interest rates reducing a 0.25% or 0.5%. It'll lead to more repossession and increased supply of homes.

Govn pay awards can lead to inflationary pressures, leading to interest rates having to be kept higher for longer.

Air BnB. Air Bnb/b2l was a catalyst for the housing market. The environment for these are becoming less and less favourable, so more investors in this area are likely to sell.

Affordability is impacted in all loans/credit cards, car loans, business loans. Govn, businesses and individuals. It's not just mortgages.

Housing market is in a bubble. That can be seen by the fact, more govn help is wanted by HBs etc. It's a false market. Govn interference just leads to making things worse.

H2B ended. The govn hasn't got money to introduce another similar scheme. I've said I believe it's toxic.

National HB. If the govn wants to build 300k per year, 1.5m over 5 years then they will have to setup a national, public owned HB, or provide good incentives/subsidiaries for current HBs to do so.

[danvandan] 31/7/2024 15:34

Well, it looks as though TW will end up close to red today. What is more surprising is that the share price has held up at all given the collapse in fundamentals. Market sentiment seems to be buoyed by the retention of the dividend; a hopeful prediction of future sales; a possible interest rate cut and the government's ambition for more house-building. On the face of it, that all seems reasonable. However, look just a little deeper and the picture looks bleak.

1. Interest rates will not return to pre-pandemic levels. 5% will likely be the floor and rises to 6%, which have been common over the last 50 yrs, will cause major contractions in house sales with prices at current levels. The housing market is a bubble.

2. Govt ambition for more house-building. TW says that it has a big landbank with planning permission, sufficient for all of its needs for the forseeable. That's great. But unlocking more available land for other developers will merely create competition for TW and erode the value of its precious landbank.

3. The dividend. Cash fell by almost £94m in just six months. At that rate, TW's net cash will become net debt in about 30 months if nothing else changes. The dividend will be reduced to prevent that. When the dividend goes, sentiment here will turn overnight.

4. Hopeful predictions of increased sales. Jennie Daly is saying five times in this report that the business will be profitable 'assuming a supportive market backdrop'. This is the nub of the issue and the TW board seems to recognise its vulnerability here. The market will not be supportive because:
- interest rates will remain high
- inflation will continue to impact profits, especially since millions of public sector workers will be getting above-inflation pay rises of 5%
- a big increase in new housing schemes will drive up the cost of building materials and labour (more inflation)
- regional developers will benefit from low-cost land and create competition for TW's customers
- selling prices of houses will at best stagnate but more likely fall.

Bulls here are fighting the last bull-fight, but the rules have changed. The tories gave house-builders money through help-to-buy schemes, and house-building investors have yet to realise that this government will NOT employ a similar tactic. A labour government will focus on increasing the supply of property and thereby drive prices down. They have made this clear through their ambition for 'affordable housing' rather than 'market support'.

UK housing is a bubble, inflated by years of help-to-buy govt subsidies and near zero interest rates. Both of those supports have gone. If everyone is very lucky, this bubble might just slowly deflate instead of suddenly bursting, but that would be unusual for a bubble.

[tialouise] 31/7/2024 14:39

How's the short lol and at persimmon, what a fool.....

[kreature] 31/7/2024 14:37

We should all unite in forward looking statements and hope that the share price doesn’t drift below say £1 between now and Christmas

[kreature] 31/7/2024 14:33

Are you secretly locking in profit jugs ? Maybe that would be a secret tbf

[kreature] 31/7/2024 14:30

What’s the next catalyst here to potentially consider assuming to wonder about driving the share price upward ? January’s hopefully better than expected disappointments ?

[jugears] 31/7/2024 12:13

Yes sick None of that seems to have any effect on house prices or sales & look here we are with an increased dividend ( even I didn't see that coming) Why don't you be a big big & tell us how much you short a share by? we only have your word for it & TW haven't been £1.70 for a good while, As you know I bought these back at 30-37p added 200k at 98p & sold half at £1.80 then added over £250k at 89p which I still have, I can imagine that A you don't invest this type of money & B that you shorted long before they went below a pound? Shorting in my eyes is gambling & long term investing isn't, it works for me & its virtually 100% secure you just have to buy good solid old established British companies & keep faith in them, my first investment I ever made was 2k since then I have never invested less than 20k at a time in any single investment & luckily all bar two have have proved to be good investments, I'm not dismissing your way of investing but I assume you loose a lot more than you let on especially in TLY?? & if it works for you then good look, my worry there though is that things can change in the blink of an eye & shares can fall very quickly & sharply as seen here & with TLY but if you own companies with a good track record & you hold long term then you don't have to worry because they all come good in the end.I have never ever been panicked in to selling any shares, I made a fortune from the financial crisis, Brexit & covid & that mini budget was just the icing on the cake for me, buy when others are fearfull, never a truer Statement!