Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:28

Yes, of course beckers, we're all wrong because you've now moved into political punditry. So I take it you've got no answer to ANY of the issues I raised in my long post 38 minutes ago.

I'll re-post tomorrow to give you some time to think about it.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 19:20

DvD,

What a load of nonsense, if Labour preside over a falling house price term of office, they will be unelectable for decades, Labour are full of hot air.

DvD called it wrong in April 2024.
Kreature called it wrong in November 2023.
Sikhthetech, the village idiot has called the house price crash wrong every year for the last 6 years.

The bears are wrong and lost the argument over a year ago, but still they bleat on, lol!

The Bulls here buying when I advised at 86p are definitely not wrong and handsomely in profit, plus 4 x 9% yield dividend payments

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:17

Thanks for that peter, I'm happy for you. Would you buy more TW now?

I'll buy card factory in the morning since you think it's about to break out.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:14

In case you're wondering what new developments might look like in this Labour administration's drive to create homes, it won't be expensive TW estates. It's more likely to be high-density developments like this one just announced, on brownfield sites:


London developer Aitch Group has secured outline planning consent for a £330m scheme to transform a former industrial site into a 1,250-home community in south east London.

[peteret] 22/7/2024 19:10

Yes whole load of waffle on this site.For the record I have made most profit trading this and card factory that is just about to break out.Made a few bob on Lloyd's but maybe thats reached the top for now.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:03

One more thing; the government is apparently mandating larger house-building targets for local councils and is guiding them to grant planning permission on 'greyfield' and brownfield sites. If this happens, the value of TW's landbank (and all builders' landbanks for that matter) will drop since land with planning permission for housing will become more commonly available (pricing driven by demand and supply). Just another factor affecting the value of the business...

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:50

beckers, here's a reminder of the factors that will reduce TW's earnings for the immediate future (including 2025).

1. AFFORDABILITY IS CRUSHING TW'S PROFITS. New mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

Most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Bank of England rate-setters are signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses. Even if rates come down a measly 0.25%, mortgages will still be far more expensive than they were three years ago.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning. TW will be stuck with low volume and smaller profits for the foreseeable future.

Build-to-rent could be a solution to the need for greater volume house-building. We are already seeing institutional buying in this sector. Vistry is a potential beneficiary in that market, TW is not. Cheap brownfield land will be required and a 'special relationship' with councils to make the build economics work. Only a few builders will be able to exploit this. Labour will apply rent controls and tenant protections to make renting affordable for 'hard working families'. As returns in the rented sector fall, this will cause private landlords to divest and push more property onto a depressed property market, causing prices to fall further.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:49

beckers, using all of your awesome TW 'research' and investor skills - we're all marvelling at your brilliant posts, fantastic knowledge and raw intelligence - could you perhaps answer any of the points in my next post? I'm sure everyone here will really value your profound insight...

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:49

DvD called it wrong in April 2024.
Kreature called it wrong in November 2023.
Sikhthetech, the village idiot has called the house price crash wrong every year for the last 6 years.

The bears are wrong and lost the argument over a year ago, but still they bleat on, lol!

The Bulls here buying when I advised at 86p are definitely not wrong and handsomely in profit, plus 4 x 9% yield dividend payments.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:37

Funny how the 'bulls' here feel it necessary to call anyone who doesn't agree with them 'thick' or a 'cretin' or even a 'village idiot' without presenting any evidence that the bears are wrong.

beckers seems to think that reading something amounts to 'research' even when he/she's unable to draw any conclusions. Very strange. Anyway, good luck on the 31st. Presumably the market will be delighted with volume down by another 33%. Do you have any thoughts on prices, revenue and dividend yield too?

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:36

DvD,

Kreature has stated that TW. results will be amazing. You have stated the same results will be 'fantastic'. Now you are stating 'awesome' Lol!
Do some research, then you might not post utter nonsense.

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:29

And more good news from jugears; apparently everyone is buying five-bedroom houses. Is that because the two-bedroom ones are too expensive? Those TW results are going to be awesome... Load up now?

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:28

DvD,

As I have told the other troll, Kreature, TW results will be as expected, production for FY 2024, down another 33% to match FY 2023.
Expect earnings growth in 2025.

Kreature has stated that TW. results will be amazing. You have stated the same results will be 'fantastic'.
Do some research, then you might not post utter nonsense.

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:10

Another brilliant post from beckers. Well, you've convinced me by pasting the same badly written message again and again that TW must be doing great so I'm looking forward to seeing the fantastic results on the 31st that justify a two-year high share price. Good luck beckers, I'm sure you won't be disappointed...

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:03

DvD,

What a load of waffle which is pontificated over two years ago by many commentators, nowhere near as bad as forecast. TW. earnings growth in 2025.

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), he called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:53

Joseph, indeed. Might coincide with a rate cut which could engender a little more false hope.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 16:55

Interesting assessment by an Investors Chronicle writer last week:

[kreature] 22/7/2024 16:42

Rightmove report record house prices ( asking prices lol ) so I think we are mostly all expecting results to exceed expectations, with celebrations

[jugears] 22/7/2024 15:46

Becks also interesting to note from my friends that there is a good market for 4/5 bedroom houses at the moment, I think its fair to say that as TW indicated production has been cut & therefore it is not rocket science to expect profits & dividend(if we get one at all) will be less, all as expected. whatever the Tu the markets will either like it or not but I don't think we will see much of a fall next Wednesday but if we do it will be very short lived IMEO.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 15:30

K,

TW. muted a few years ago production would be cut by 33% for 2023 and 2024.
Interesting that new build prices have been the most resilient.

Talyor Wimpey are the most compelling investment in the HB sector.

Do you now agree with me that Taylor Wimpey’s results will not be amazing?

How's your short at £1.095 doing?

[kreature] 22/7/2024 14:38

Alarm Bells for Build To Rent as building starts show huge slump


Oh, ‘starts’ down

[kreature] 22/7/2024 14:31

Completion rate down 40%, which could be worse in all fairness. Give it time?

[kreature] 22/7/2024 14:24

Guys, please stop worrying, I sure the trading update will be fine. Might even exceed expectations due to the 32% drop in UK sales agreed since pre pandemic levels (as reported my Landmark) ?

[jugears] 22/7/2024 12:35

Sikh, I am just giving you my opinion, I wouldn't expect anyone to invest when I have given an opinion, always always do your own research! apart from selling half of my 200k shares that I purchased in Tw at 98p I have never sold any & until recently re invested all dividends, I don't need to sell any shares because I don't need the money,I have said before I will probably never sell Tw, it provides a good income & the shares have cost me nothing, whilst the markets may not be as good as they could be at the moment long term the fundamentals couldn't look better IMEO, huge valuable fully owned land bank, If for any bizarre reason these fell below a pound again then I would without any hesitation be buying a lot more than 500k, realistically though I think we will see £1.80 long before £1!
Oh & I don't post under different ID's If that is what you are indicating, I see value here(currently exceptional value) & you don't simple as, I know people in the industry & you don't, Simple as!

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 11:28

K, or should I say Cretin,

You never try and argue against me, seems I was correct...

The working class have never been able to purchase a property, except Maggie's great give away, please read my post history and learn.

You really should try and not get so emotional (Gfy), lol!

You stated...
""Kreature - 10 Nov 2023 - 08:25:58 - 4893 of 4916
Well I'm shorting the lot PSN, BWY, RDW"" END.

Oh dear, it seems you are in the troll losers club along with the other village idiots, including Sikhthetech whose been wrong for 6 years, lol, just lol!