Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 23/7/2024 00:52

Zzzz Becks just be patient, wait for the results. Hopefully you will be pleasantly unsurprised

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 21:36

DvD,

You weren't here when the shorts were over 2% on TW. and the Bulls were adding.
Couldn't give a stuff about Barratt's, TW are the most compelling investment in the HB sector, hence no current notifiable position.
You shorted at £1.3335, the market has moved against you and your smarting, lol!
You lost the argument over a year ago, your timing is not credible.
BoE base rate at 6%?

The Bulls here have had a great ride from my advice to buy at 86p.

Now when is the 40% peak to trough house price crash gonna happen, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 22/7/2024 19:57

Store closures and job losses due to the cost of being alive crisis.

[kreature] 22/7/2024 19:07

Personally I’d rather false hope than no hope. Sentiment is good and investors are full of pride, likely in favour of the proverb

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:04

beckers, if I'm 'late to the party' how can I have already lost? I'm still building my position. I like to start small with a short, because shorting is inherently risky. My average position is much higher than 133p (I did say at the time that I was adding to an existing position) but I think you already know that and you're just being disingenuous, in the same way that you fail to address ANY of the actual issues that I raise on TW's profitability and revenue. Honesty is important for credibility, and it's you who seems to have none.

Currently, TW's share price is sentiment driven. When the outcomes repeatedly contradict this sentiment, the market will shift. My guess is that the share price will hit £1 at some point, possibly this year or next. Wednesday the 31st could be the start of that shift, but nothing's guaranteed on the stockmarket. It might take the government's interventions in the wider market to really get the ball rolling. We watch and wait.

Incidentally, the hedgefunds shorting Barratt are in the same 'cusp of change' moment. Dire results have not yet triggered a big fall in the share price Shorts remain very high there while the share price flatlines. [Sentiment rules, right Joseph?]

becks, re Blackrock - yeah, I know. That's why I said it's too early to say whether it's significant. We shall see.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:52

DvD,

If you done any research you would know that Blackrock buy and sell less than 1% of their holding a few times, but their holding trend has been up.

How is your pitiful short at £1.3335, lol,just lol!

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:49

RNS at 9.10 this morning shows Blackrock reducing TW holdings from 11.34% to 10.98%.

Not sure how significant this is yet; if it's the start of a trend, we will soon see.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:47

DvD,

What you have written has been pontificated many times over 2 years ago, you are late to the party and lost.
Your Labour political associated point will not happen, because if house prices drop over Labour's watch, that will be Labour finished for decades.

You can copy and paste all you like, so can I merely pointing out that you along with the other trolls short positions has resulted in the wrong call.

How is your pitiful short at £1.3335, lol,just lol!

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:28

Yes, of course beckers, we're all wrong because you've now moved into political punditry. So I take it you've got no answer to ANY of the issues I raised in my long post 38 minutes ago.

I'll re-post tomorrow to give you some time to think about it.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 18:20

DvD,

What a load of nonsense, if Labour preside over a falling house price term of office, they will be unelectable for decades, Labour are full of hot air.

DvD called it wrong in April 2024.
Kreature called it wrong in November 2023.
Sikhthetech, the village idiot has called the house price crash wrong every year for the last 6 years.

The bears are wrong and lost the argument over a year ago, but still they bleat on, lol!

The Bulls here buying when I advised at 86p are definitely not wrong and handsomely in profit, plus 4 x 9% yield dividend payments

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:17

Thanks for that peter, I'm happy for you. Would you buy more TW now?

I'll buy card factory in the morning since you think it's about to break out.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:14

In case you're wondering what new developments might look like in this Labour administration's drive to create homes, it won't be expensive TW estates. It's more likely to be high-density developments like this one just announced, on brownfield sites:


London developer Aitch Group has secured outline planning consent for a £330m scheme to transform a former industrial site into a 1,250-home community in south east London.

[peteret] 22/7/2024 18:10

Yes whole load of waffle on this site.For the record I have made most profit trading this and card factory that is just about to break out.Made a few bob on Lloyd's but maybe thats reached the top for now.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 18:03

One more thing; the government is apparently mandating larger house-building targets for local councils and is guiding them to grant planning permission on 'greyfield' and brownfield sites. If this happens, the value of TW's landbank (and all builders' landbanks for that matter) will drop since land with planning permission for housing will become more commonly available (pricing driven by demand and supply). Just another factor affecting the value of the business...

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:50

beckers, here's a reminder of the factors that will reduce TW's earnings for the immediate future (including 2025).

1. AFFORDABILITY IS CRUSHING TW'S PROFITS. New mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

Most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Bank of England rate-setters are signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses. Even if rates come down a measly 0.25%, mortgages will still be far more expensive than they were three years ago.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning. TW will be stuck with low volume and smaller profits for the foreseeable future.

Build-to-rent could be a solution to the need for greater volume house-building. We are already seeing institutional buying in this sector. Vistry is a potential beneficiary in that market, TW is not. Cheap brownfield land will be required and a 'special relationship' with councils to make the build economics work. Only a few builders will be able to exploit this. Labour will apply rent controls and tenant protections to make renting affordable for 'hard working families'. As returns in the rented sector fall, this will cause private landlords to divest and push more property onto a depressed property market, causing prices to fall further.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:49

beckers, using all of your awesome TW 'research' and investor skills - we're all marvelling at your brilliant posts, fantastic knowledge and raw intelligence - could you perhaps answer any of the points in my next post? I'm sure everyone here will really value your profound insight...

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 17:49

DvD called it wrong in April 2024.
Kreature called it wrong in November 2023.
Sikhthetech, the village idiot has called the house price crash wrong every year for the last 6 years.

The bears are wrong and lost the argument over a year ago, but still they bleat on, lol!

The Bulls here buying when I advised at 86p are definitely not wrong and handsomely in profit, plus 4 x 9% yield dividend payments.

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:37

Funny how the 'bulls' here feel it necessary to call anyone who doesn't agree with them 'thick' or a 'cretin' or even a 'village idiot' without presenting any evidence that the bears are wrong.

beckers seems to think that reading something amounts to 'research' even when he/she's unable to draw any conclusions. Very strange. Anyway, good luck on the 31st. Presumably the market will be delighted with volume down by another 33%. Do you have any thoughts on prices, revenue and dividend yield too?

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 17:36

DvD,

Kreature has stated that TW. results will be amazing. You have stated the same results will be 'fantastic'. Now you are stating 'awesome' Lol!
Do some research, then you might not post utter nonsense.

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:29

And more good news from jugears; apparently everyone is buying five-bedroom houses. Is that because the two-bedroom ones are too expensive? Those TW results are going to be awesome... Load up now?

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 17:28

DvD,

As I have told the other troll, Kreature, TW results will be as expected, production for FY 2024, down another 33% to match FY 2023.
Expect earnings growth in 2025.

Kreature has stated that TW. results will be amazing. You have stated the same results will be 'fantastic'.
Do some research, then you might not post utter nonsense.

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335 doing, lol, just lol!"

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 17:10

Another brilliant post from beckers. Well, you've convinced me by pasting the same badly written message again and again that TW must be doing great so I'm looking forward to seeing the fantastic results on the 31st that justify a two-year high share price. Good luck beckers, I'm sure you won't be disappointed...

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 17:03

DvD,

What a load of waffle which is pontificated over two years ago by many commentators, nowhere near as bad as forecast. TW. earnings growth in 2025.

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure -- happy to see things going my way. 110p is my target price. No reason for alarm from people who intend holding for ever though." END.

Oh dear, your later to the party than Kreature(JS), he called it wrong on 10th Nov 23.

'Your happy to see things go your way' on 8th April, lol!
Your making a fool of yourself talking BS and you called it wrong, lol!

Another classic mug-punter with Zero Credibility, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 16:53

Joseph, indeed. Might coincide with a rate cut which could engender a little more false hope.