Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 25/7/2024 14:15

DvD,

It's took you 2 days to post that, lol!
I and others on here have been telling you that Wimps have cut production by 33% for 2023 and 2024.
Expect Q3 and Q4 to show even less new build registrations.

2024 will be TW.'s worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?

[sikhthetech] 25/7/2024 13:31

There's still hundreds of thousands to come off cheap 2-5yr fixed rate mortgages. They face significantly higher mortgage interest.


Soaring UK mortgage rates have pushed 320,000 adults into poverty, thinktank says
Institute for Fiscal Studies report says interests rate rises have inflicted differing levels of hardship

[gbh2] 25/7/2024 13:25

Anyone noticed disappearing advfn threads?

Two of the lloyds threads I use have dissapeared.

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 13:05

In other news, I see that one of the building societies is offering a 3.99% mortgage rate for people who are paying mostly cash and don't actually need a mortgage. A kind of 'loss leader' in mortgage marketing. IRL average fixed rates are still close to 6%.

Big fall today is mainly due to the overall market drop, mostly driven by tech stocks apparently. Looking at the one month chart though, it does look like we may have seen the peak here. Bulls getting ready to stampede out?

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 12:59

Potential rate cut is still on the cards for Wednesday. Money markets have this at around 50/50 likelihood. I doubt it'll move the share price on the day; the H1 results will be the main driver along with whatever hopeful nonsense Jennie Daly comes up with. Should be interesting.

[danvandan] 25/7/2024 12:54

Some staggering falls in new build registrations being reported today:



Bodes ill for TW but let's see the actual numbers next week.

Interesting comment from Angela Rayner shows the direction of building:
“We are committed not just to an ambitious target for overall housebuilding but the biggest wave of social and affordable housing for a generation. It’s a promise that we’ll bring back with meaningful housing targets.”

In other words, the government's ambition, as expected, focuses on social and affordable housing and does not extend to TW's segment of the market.

[sikhthetech] 25/7/2024 12:22

Looks like 155p-158p is good shorting opportunity. Was looking for 160p anyway.


Just posted on EZJ - views I've expressed on here about Air bnb/b2l homes/investors.


sikhthetech25 Jul '24 - 13:19 - 19009 of 19009 Edit

Over tourism is a serious problem for local communities.

However, it will discourage tourists from visiting those places, leading to longer term problems for their economy. The solution isn't directing anger at tourists during the peak season. That's counter productive.

It's become all too easy to buy a property and list it on providers like Air BnB.
Government pressure/taxation etc is needed against providers like Air BnB.

Any action is more likely to impact Air BnB, housing market.

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 15:35

K,

I bet you don't, but just in case you do, you will see things ticking along as forecast.
2024 will be TW.'s worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?

[cupra kid] 24/7/2024 13:19

Jugs, for your own sanity I think it's best to filter Sikh. Trust me when I say, you won't miss not reading his/her comments.

[kreature] 24/7/2024 12:59

Whilst you guys try to justify your existence, I’ll go and take a look at a TW site to see how quiet is, or (for balance) how busy it isn’t. Will report back later. ATB

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 12:04

K, DvD, Sikhthetech,

Whichever way you look at it, the market has gone against you, in other words, you have called it wrong.

DvD, short, wrong at £1.335
K, short, wrong at £1.095
Short traders, the good ones, set up stop-losses at usually 15%.
This tells me that both of you are telling porkies, DvD broke through 15% and K's crashed!
You are not traders, you are trolls and not very good emotional ones, lol!
Sikhthetech, lost it's shirt back in October 2018 and can't let it go, bleating ever since, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 24/7/2024 11:59

Jugears
"They were busy at the time & so was my company"

You're digging yourself an even bigger hole and sounding even more desperate.

You claimed HB/sites were busy, you busiest ever in 40years but only cpl weeks later HBs said otherwise. Are you now claiming things got worse within days??? Really?

So who lied, you or the HB's execs?


It's like your recent claims of being busier now you're retired. Yet you still write long posts and still reply within minutes....
You're full of BS...

[kreature] 24/7/2024 11:12

Council tax should double to help pay for more free hutches for everyone with drug and alcohol addiction. Just a policy I thought of that might help here.

[kreature] 24/7/2024 11:08

Best way to get a tw house is to get one via the 11.5bn gov Affordable Homes Programme, where by you ensure you have ef all and pay ef all.

[danvandan] 24/7/2024 11:04

Well guess what, sales have declined. Keep on lolling. Next Wednesday's H1 report will make interesting reading.

[jugears] 24/7/2024 10:59

They were busy at the time & so was my company, They decided to cut production IN CASE sales declined not because they had!!!!! LOL oh LOL
Becks Ive been looking at prices for second hand houses in the midlands & a lot are higher than the Covid peak? so not all doom & gloom

[danvandan] 24/7/2024 10:51

Busy as far as jugears can see... Maybe he should take those rose-tinted glasses off. Absurd that jugears thinks that it's a great achievement that TW is selling what it has built. I hear that they are having to spend on buyer incentives and if Barrat's results are any indication, selling prices for new builds have come down. Barratt reported just a couple of weeks back that their selling prices have fallen 6% for sales this year.

Regarding plans to sell even fewer houses, what if TW decided to build just a thousand houses next year. Still a good share? What if it's just 100 houses? Still good? What if it's just one house?

The fact is that TW generates low quality earnings - if it doesn't build a lot of houses, the business has little value. The landbank's value will also be severely reduced by the government's plans to force councils to make building land available for housing.

The trajectory for earnings is heading in one direction right now; down, down, deeper and down.

The shareprice has been hyped up by talk of a housing boom, and is now close to a two-year high, while earnings are plunging into an abyss.

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 10:51

Jugs,

New builds are performing better price wise than second hand homes.
Wimps are managing their cash flow very well and all metrics will improve going into 2025 and further in 2026, including the all important margin.

[sikhthetech] 24/7/2024 10:33

Jugears,

"the hb's were busy two years ago"
You claimed HBs were busy, you busiest in 40years etc just a couple of weeks before they said they have reduced number of builds. The fact is your claim contradicted their claims at the same time.

[jugears] 24/7/2024 10:30

Sicky.com the hb's were busy two years ago, they still are as far as I can see, Lets be absolutely clear Hb cut production in anticipation that they would sell fewer houses, due entirely to higher interest rates & NOT because they were selling fewer houses, where have any hb's said that they couldn't sell the houses that they chose to sell? If you decide to only build 10k houses very few if any would actually be built without a buyer, occasionally houses are built on spec to get interest from buyers if its a new site or if its the last ones to be built on a site, try phoning a few house builders & ask how long you need to wait before moving into a new build, I think it may surprise you!

[jugears] 24/7/2024 10:17

Becks, probably because its share priced is one of the most under valued shares on the market,Of course earnings will be lower we have already been told that by TW & yes the markets are expecting this, unless you live in a foreign country or have you have been in a coma for the last 18 months, who knows I may invest my 500k next week depending on what sort of mood the markets in, however Tw have an exceptional land bank spread across the whole of the uk (unlike the likes of Carla that limits themselves to two areas)& tw also build a wide range of houses to suit all budgets, not everyone wants a cheap & affordable house & not everyone is effected by interest rates, as the markets & house price resilience have clearly shown. Whatever happens the uk needs more houses than the hb's can ever build, interest rates will fall & production will build & so will the sp, next week we should have a clearer picture.

[sikhthetech] 24/7/2024 10:17

Throwing money at HBs won't resolve the affordability crisis.

HBs themselves are building fewer homes because of affordability, which is contrary to the claims Jugears was making that they still busiest ever and not reducing builds.

[gbh2] 24/7/2024 10:02

I picked up another 5K a few minuter ago, just waiting o see how much cash the Liebour party are going to throw at HBs :)

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 09:44

2024 will be TW. worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?