Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 24/7/2024 09:44

2024 will be TW. worst year since 2020.
Earnings growth will resume in 2025 and moreover in 2026.
Interestingly TW. will still be cash flow free positive in 2024 and an improved position to 2023.

The future looks good for TW. but not this FY, but the market expects this anyway.
I wonder why the share price is up 33% in the last year?

[jugears] 24/7/2024 09:23

Glad I'm not invested in Tly today, oh deary me indeed!

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 22:14

DvD,

The Bulls batted away your points over the last few years.
Liz Truss gave us an unbelievable opportunity to load up in the 80's when the bears were shouting their usual bs.

Stop SHOUTING, it is rude to shout.

You have been here since April 2023 with your pitiful short, lol!

Along with the Bulls that took my advise, we have made a significant profit plus 9% yield dividend payments.

You on the other hand are down along with the other trolls here, including the 6 year village idiot, you know it's name, lol, just lol!

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 19:24

Btw, beckers, you're explanation about 'muted' is very strange. I think the word you actually meant to use - but didn't know how to spell - is 'mooted', meaning that reduced production was being indicated or proposed as a potential outcome (using the loose logic within your post). Anyway, as I've said before, spelling, grammar, vocabulary and syntax are evidently a bit of a struggle for you, and I recognise that, so I'm going to give you a little break from the more serious discussion going on here.

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 19:13

I'm going to give you a break beckers. It's obvious that you don't have the intelligence or knowledge necessary to make any argument for TW, and given the precarious situation for house-builders, that's not an easy argument to make anyway.

Stick to your little copy-and-paste-posts and 'lols' and let's see where the share price goes over the next few months. I'll be here giving updates but I'm not expecting anything sensible from you.

Overall this has turned out to be a very low quality thread when it comes to bulls, but good luck to you all.

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 18:50

Again, you are not answering ANY OF THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES AFFECTING TW.

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 18:49

DvD,
'When you mute the TV or computer speakers, all of the sound goes quiet, but something described as muted is just toned down or turned down'
Muted is a term used as toned down, turned down or in Wimps case production down, 33% down in 2023 and 33% for 2024.
Earnings growth in 2025.

How's your pitiful short at £1.3335, lol, just lol!

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 18:42

DvD,

What a load of nonsense, if Labour preside over a falling house price term of office, they will be unelectable for decades, Labour are full of hot air.

DvD called it wrong in April 2024.
Kreature called it wrong in November 2023.
Sikhthetech, the village idiot has called the house price crash wrong every year for the last 6 years.

The bears are wrong and lost the argument over a year ago, but still they bleat on, lol!

The Bulls here buying when I advised at 86p are definitely not wrong and handsomely in pr

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 17:02

The Vistry model sunshineT?

And are you saying that where the US goes, the UK must follow in terms of a building slowdown?

beckers, do you still think that TW will return to growth next year?

Also beckers, what did you mean when you said this morning at 9.01am that 'TW muted a few years ago...'? Are you saying they stopped talking about something?

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 17:01

The new entrant's don’t pay for the land nor do they have selling costs

The product is pre sold

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 16:58

I qoute you...

"Look for a boom in social house building on an industrial scale that allows a fixed 3% margin for the contractor"

/////////////////////////////////////////

This is nailed: All the big players have seen margin erosion , and it’s set to continue for at least a decade and a half.

A new breed of builder, one who works on a 3% margin in partnership with landowners

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 16:52

beckers, I've given you an entire 24 hours to think of an answer to the following points below regarding factors that will reduce TW's earnings for the immediate future (including 2025). Have you managed to come up with ANYTHING sensible yet or are you just as empty-headed as you were yesterday?

1. AFFORDABILITY IS CRUSHING TW'S PROFITS. New mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

Most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Bank of England rate-setters are signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses. Even if rates come down a measly 0.25%, mortgages will still be far more expensive than they were three years ago.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning. TW will be stuck with low volume and smaller profits for the foreseeable future. My guess is that smaller house-builders will see opportunities in cheaper land and will build more homes. More house-building means more competition in house-selling and more downward pressure on sale prices and profits, as is being experienced right now apparently in the US.

6. One more thing; the government is apparently mandating larger house-building targets for local councils and is guiding them to grant planning permission on 'greyfield' and brownfield sites. If this happens, the value of TW's landbank (and all builders' landbanks for that matter) will drop since land with planning permission for housing will become more commonly available (pricing driven by demand and supply). Just another factor affecting the value of the business...

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 16:48

Blimey, you're asking [him] to answer something from nine months ago, but you can't even answer something from 12 minutes ago!

Maybe you should try getting your own house in order.

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 16:43

sT,

Bless, you bring up the US again, lol!

Remember this, are you going to answer the question?

""Beckers2008 - 20 Oct 2023 - 08:44:54 - 16487 of 18524
sT,

I qoute you...

"Look for a boom in social house building on an industrial scale that allows a fixed 3% margin for the contractor"

Tell me, what is the UK government guidance (regardless of political colour) for the sub-contractor mark up percentage figure for the supplying of goods and services?"" END.

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 16:35

sunshineT, are you saying that where the US goes, the UK must follow?

beckers, do you still think that TW will return to growth next year?

Also, what do you mean when you said this morning at 9.01am that 'TW muted a few years ago...'? Are you saying they stopped talking about something?

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 15:42

US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July...

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JUL 23, 2024 - 03:11 PM

US existing home sales slumped for the fourth straight month in June, plunging a worse than expected 5.4% MoM (the worst MoM drop since Nov 2022) and dragging sales down 5.4% YoY

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 13:22

K,

"Freeholders have less rights than leaseholders apparently" Lol!

Apparently? Either they do or they don't or it is or it isn't? What/Which is it?

Seems to me, you don't believe in what you write, lol!

Seems to me that your short in November at £1.095, not only being the wrong call, but you really don't believe in that either, lol,just lol!

[kreature] 23/7/2024 12:07

Freeholders have less rights than leaseholders apparently. There’s your lol

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 11:04

K,

Stop writing, expletives if you don't believe in them.

Seems to me that your short in November at £1.095, not only being the wrong call, but you really don't believe in that either, lol,just lol!

[kreature] 23/7/2024 10:48

Makes do difference whether I agree or disagree. I remain impartial from the “scamming̶1; as one MP called it.

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 09:07

K,

Do you now agree with me that Taylor Wimpey's results will not be amazing?

[kreature] 23/7/2024 08:49

Yes prices are resilient which is why TW are offering 20k of incentives and reducing asking prices and paying 12k towards mortgages

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 08:01

K,

TW. muted a few years ago production would be cut by 33% for 2023 and 2024.
Interesting that new build prices have been the most resilient.

Talyor Wimpey are the most compelling investment in the HB sector.

Do you now agree with me that Taylor Wimpey's results will not be amazing?

How's your short at £1.095 doing?