Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 18:02

The Vistry model sunshineT?

And are you saying that where the US goes, the UK must follow in terms of a building slowdown?

beckers, do you still think that TW will return to growth next year?

Also beckers, what did you mean when you said this morning at 9.01am that 'TW muted a few years ago...'? Are you saying they stopped talking about something?

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 18:01

The new entrant's don’t pay for the land nor do they have selling costs

The product is pre sold

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 17:58

I qoute you...

"Look for a boom in social house building on an industrial scale that allows a fixed 3% margin for the contractor"

/////////////////////////////////////////

This is nailed: All the big players have seen margin erosion , and it’s set to continue for at least a decade and a half.

A new breed of builder, one who works on a 3% margin in partnership with landowners

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 17:52

beckers, I've given you an entire 24 hours to think of an answer to the following points below regarding factors that will reduce TW's earnings for the immediate future (including 2025). Have you managed to come up with ANYTHING sensible yet or are you just as empty-headed as you were yesterday?

1. AFFORDABILITY IS CRUSHING TW'S PROFITS. New mortgages are down by 25%. That is why all of the housebuilders have built 20% fewer houses than last year and are forecasting to build even fewer over the next year.

Most tellingly of all, that is why BARRATT HAVE SOLD HOUSES AT PRICES 6% LOWER THAN LAST YEAR. People here have been telling you for several months that the market has stagnated in terms of pricing and may be going into reverse. Soon the Barratt effect will be felt by everyone selling a house; prices are going to fall. The ONLY question is whether they fall gradually or steeply.

2. INTEREST RATES WILL NOT FALL TO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE THREE YEARS AGO. Those days are over. Normality for interest rates has returned. Typical interest rates over the last 60 years are between 6% and 8% and sometimes even higher. The only way that buyers will return is if prices fall. Bank of England rate-setters are signaling that the bank might not reduce rates in August, even though inflation is around 2%. If the economy begins to founder, rates will come down a little, but that will also mean that unemployment will be higher and fewer people will be buying houses. Even if rates come down a measly 0.25%, mortgages will still be far more expensive than they were three years ago.

3. As prices fall in a smaller and smaller market, TW's profits shrink further and further. There is a major misalignment right now between TW's valuation and its future earnings. Earnings will be lower, dividends will fall, and the share price will fall. It will take time for the market to realise this, but when realisation sinks in, the fall to £1 will likely be swift.

4. We do not need a recession for this to happen. However, if we do have a recession, all negative effects for TW will be amplified.

5. Labour's efforts to build against the market (a socialist style command economy strategy, instead of a capitalist demand economy) will fail. You cannot make TW build houses it can't sell. 'Planning consent' is where Labour has said there is a problem. They are wrong. All of the house-builders have voluntarily scaled back their operations because the affordability issue has shrunk the market. House-builders know this because they are hearing it from prospective buyers every day and seeing it in sales projections, and this informs their business planning. TW will be stuck with low volume and smaller profits for the foreseeable future. My guess is that smaller house-builders will see opportunities in cheaper land and will build more homes. More house-building means more competition in house-selling and more downward pressure on sale prices and profits, as is being experienced right now apparently in the US.

6. One more thing; the government is apparently mandating larger house-building targets for local councils and is guiding them to grant planning permission on 'greyfield' and brownfield sites. If this happens, the value of TW's landbank (and all builders' landbanks for that matter) will drop since land with planning permission for housing will become more commonly available (pricing driven by demand and supply). Just another factor affecting the value of the business...

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 17:48

Blimey, you're asking [him] to answer something from nine months ago, but you can't even answer something from 12 minutes ago!

Maybe you should try getting your own house in order.

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 17:43

sT,

Bless, you bring up the US again, lol!

Remember this, are you going to answer the question?

""Beckers2008 - 20 Oct 2023 - 08:44:54 - 16487 of 18524
sT,

I qoute you...

"Look for a boom in social house building on an industrial scale that allows a fixed 3% margin for the contractor"

Tell me, what is the UK government guidance (regardless of political colour) for the sub-contractor mark up percentage figure for the supplying of goods and services?"" END.

[danvandan] 23/7/2024 17:35

sunshineT, are you saying that where the US goes, the UK must follow?

beckers, do you still think that TW will return to growth next year?

Also, what do you mean when you said this morning at 9.01am that 'TW muted a few years ago...'? Are you saying they stopped talking about something?

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 16:42

US Existing Home Sales Puked (Again) In July...

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JUL 23, 2024 - 03:11 PM

US existing home sales slumped for the fourth straight month in June, plunging a worse than expected 5.4% MoM (the worst MoM drop since Nov 2022) and dragging sales down 5.4% YoY

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 14:22

K,

"Freeholders have less rights than leaseholders apparently" Lol!

Apparently? Either they do or they don't or it is or it isn't? What/Which is it?

Seems to me, you don't believe in what you write, lol!

Seems to me that your short in November at £1.095, not only being the wrong call, but you really don't believe in that either, lol,just lol!

[kreature] 23/7/2024 13:07

Freeholders have less rights than leaseholders apparently. There’s your lol

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 12:04

K,

Stop writing, expletives if you don't believe in them.

Seems to me that your short in November at £1.095, not only being the wrong call, but you really don't believe in that either, lol,just lol!

[kreature] 23/7/2024 11:48

Makes do difference whether I agree or disagree. I remain impartial from the “scamming̶1; as one MP called it.

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 10:07

K,

Do you now agree with me that Taylor Wimpey's results will not be amazing?

[kreature] 23/7/2024 09:49

Yes prices are resilient which is why TW are offering 20k of incentives and reducing asking prices and paying 12k towards mortgages

[beckers2008] 23/7/2024 09:01

K,

TW. muted a few years ago production would be cut by 33% for 2023 and 2024.
Interesting that new build prices have been the most resilient.

Talyor Wimpey are the most compelling investment in the HB sector.

Do you now agree with me that Taylor Wimpey's results will not be amazing?

How's your short at £1.095 doing?

[sunshine today] 23/7/2024 06:58

BTL mortgage market shrinks as ‘landlords face a number of challenges’

JULY 23, 2024 | MARC DA SILVA
The volume of lending for buy-to-let (BTL) house purchases more than halved over the course of 2023, according to UK Finance.

[kreature] 23/7/2024 01:52

Zzzz Becks just be patient, wait for the results. Hopefully you will be pleasantly unsurprised

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 22:36

DvD,

You weren't here when the shorts were over 2% on TW. and the Bulls were adding.
Couldn't give a stuff about Barratt's, TW are the most compelling investment in the HB sector, hence no current notifiable position.
You shorted at £1.3335, the market has moved against you and your smarting, lol!
You lost the argument over a year ago, your timing is not credible.
BoE base rate at 6%?

The Bulls here have had a great ride from my advice to buy at 86p.

Now when is the 40% peak to trough house price crash gonna happen, lol, just lol!

[kreature] 22/7/2024 20:57

Store closures and job losses due to the cost of being alive crisis.

[kreature] 22/7/2024 20:07

Personally I’d rather false hope than no hope. Sentiment is good and investors are full of pride, likely in favour of the proverb

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 20:04

beckers, if I'm 'late to the party' how can I have already lost? I'm still building my position. I like to start small with a short, because shorting is inherently risky. My average position is much higher than 133p (I did say at the time that I was adding to an existing position) but I think you already know that and you're just being disingenuous, in the same way that you fail to address ANY of the actual issues that I raise on TW's profitability and revenue. Honesty is important for credibility, and it's you who seems to have none.

Currently, TW's share price is sentiment driven. When the outcomes repeatedly contradict this sentiment, the market will shift. My guess is that the share price will hit £1 at some point, possibly this year or next. Wednesday the 31st could be the start of that shift, but nothing's guaranteed on the stockmarket. It might take the government's interventions in the wider market to really get the ball rolling. We watch and wait.

Incidentally, the hedgefunds shorting Barratt are in the same 'cusp of change' moment. Dire results have not yet triggered a big fall in the share price Shorts remain very high there while the share price flatlines. [Sentiment rules, right Joseph?]

becks, re Blackrock - yeah, I know. That's why I said it's too early to say whether it's significant. We shall see.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 19:52

DvD,

If you done any research you would know that Blackrock buy and sell less than 1% of their holding a few times, but their holding trend has been up.

How is your pitiful short at £1.3335, lol,just lol!

[danvandan] 22/7/2024 19:49

RNS at 9.10 this morning shows Blackrock reducing TW holdings from 11.34% to 10.98%.

Not sure how significant this is yet; if it's the start of a trend, we will soon see.

[beckers2008] 22/7/2024 19:47

DvD,

What you have written has been pontificated many times over 2 years ago, you are late to the party and lost.
Your Labour political associated point will not happen, because if house prices drop over Labour's watch, that will be Labour finished for decades.

You can copy and paste all you like, so can I merely pointing out that you along with the other trolls short positions has resulted in the wrong call.

How is your pitiful short at £1.3335, lol,just lol!