Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 11:50

dd,
"US looks to open positively, and could push Wimps forward to close at a high for the day."

My comments from 2.5years still valid.


sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<...>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.

Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability.

[jugears] 31/7/2024 11:50

DD, hopefully we wont get one till September, I have a bond that matures in August!

[wolf of moston] 31/7/2024 11:48

Me - neither.

I have enough invested already. Since 2008 and varying from 13p up to 190p and everything in between. I made my most recent add in at around 130p.

I'm just here to sit by now and leave for the long term, with reinvested dividends.

I do think there's downside to the current situation and market but I'm willing to let it ride and see what happens.

[disneydonald] 31/7/2024 11:44

See what gives tomorrow re BoE decision. If a cut doesn’t appear tomorrow, then encouraging noises and a cut in Sept will have pretty the same positive effect.

US looks to open positively, and could push Wimps forward to close at a high for the day. We’ll see.

[jugears] 31/7/2024 11:42

I don't need to load up I have done that long ago, but if they fell below a certain point then I would buy a load more but I don't need or have to its only a bit of fun, tbf I'm keeping these for my very beautiful, loving, caring & funny grand kids that bring me absolute joy every day that I see them, even the younger ones now take an interest in investing! I didn't say it would surge to £2 but I have know doubt what so ever it will get there.
Explain how shorting works, If you short at £1.60 & they go to £1.80/£2.00 what happens next & what time limit do you have, I assume you never actually get to own the shares at all & basically its just like betting on a two horse race, what are the costs applied to shorting shares?

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 11:26

The choice here is simple.
If you believe the share price will rise from here then load up. If you think the share price will fall then short.

I previously went short around 170p, then traded on the way up, now short again.

Jugears believes the share price will surge to 200p, so is obviously loading up at 160p with that 500k he's been talking about for years.


Wolf
"what's in it for you guys, really?"

What's in it for you? You loading up or going short?

[jugears] 31/7/2024 11:25

Sikh & now they seem to be getting used to higher interest rates lol £2 here we come, not that I will be selling any this company has a long way to go yet.
How long before you have to pay that short back? TBF though tw wont go to £2 in a straight line so you could make a few pence on your couple of grand & lets be honest no one in their right mind would short for more than a few k, I would rather know that I own a million shares than having a 10k short in any company, thank the lord I can go to bed at night knowing that everything I have I own lock stock & barrel!

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 11:18

The negative newsflow is coming from the HBs themselves. Their desperate need for mortgage rates to come down.

The fact is prior to GFC, the avg mortgage rate had been around current levels.

Homeowners/potential homebuyers have got used to ultra low mortgages.


When there's negative newsflow from the companies but share price is rising on perceived potential, ie Govn's 1.5m housebuilding program then shares are hyped.

I'm short on TW from 160p.

[wolf of moston] 31/7/2024 11:12

And now here's Sikhtheunabletoread who quotes the following:

"Though it is early days for the new Government, we welcome their recognition that planning is a major barrier to economic growth, of which housebuilding is a significant component, and we look forward to working constructively with them to deliver much needed new homes across the UK."

Then concludes that planning is not the reason for depressed house building production, citing the above quote as the reason and evidence for their interpretation of the same.

This can only be satirical, surely?

To be honest, I, as an interested TW shareholder, read the postings of danvandan and think that this poster suggests many reasonable conditions and scenarios.

But these other posters are just in the game to clamour for bad news, to the extent that they will take the trading update words of the HB in question and conclude the opposite.

Sad. dvd appears to have money on the line through shorting the stock, but sikhthetech and Kreature the quoter of Trade Van or whatever it's called unsolicited reviews and complaints about "fleece hold" - what's in it for you guys, really?

[wolf of moston] 31/7/2024 11:00

Kreature says TW will "end the week in the red..."

What does that mean? Compared to what?
It is major newsflash time if a stock loses some ground after prolonged periods of gain. Riggghttt.
The desperation for negative news to attach itself to TW shares by some posters on here is laughable.

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 10:58

Outlook - post GE, which is more important.


"As at the week ended 28 July 2024, our total order book value was £2,102 million (2023 equivalent period: £2,175 million), excluding joint ventures, representing 7,667 homes (2023 equivalent period: 7,900 homes), of which 74% are exchanged (2023 equivalent period: 77%)."


Order book down/sales down.


"Whilst we have seen some benefit from market stability, mortgage costs remain at higher levels than in recent years which continues to impact affordability for some of our customers, particularly first time buyers."

As expected, high mortgage level continuing to impact affordability.



sikhthetech - 10 Jul 2024 - 12:59:23 - 18407 of 18647
Clearly affordability is still a problem, hence why they build fewer homes.

Uncertain housing market continues.... How will Labour get HBs to build more when they are already reducing the number they build due to affordability problems?

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 10:51

Jugears
"all we need now is a cut in interest rates"

Why, given you claimed interest rate rises wouldn't impact homeowners/homebuyers (and proven wrong), why do you now claim we need a interest rate cut?
After all, according to you homeowners/potential homebuyers could just cut out their daily coffee. ;-)

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 10:47

Read the update.

"While interest rates and mortgage rates remain high, our teams continue to work extremely hard on the ground to support our customers through the homebuying process"

In other words, they are using incentives to encourage buyers.


"Though it is early days for the new Government, we welcome their recognition that planning is a major barrier to economic growth, of which housebuilding is a significant component, and we look forward to working constructively with them to deliver much needed new homes across the UK."

It just goes to show, house building isn't down because of planning. It's lower due to affordability. Doesn't inspire confidence in Govn plans to build 1.5m homes.


"Total UK average selling price on completions decreased by 0.9% to £317k (H1 2023: £320k) due to both underlying price deflation and mix"

Avg selling price fallen!!!

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2024 10:34

The results were as I was expecting.
Look at other HBs sp, the share price moves largely in sync with other HBs.
Cash keeps declining, provisions increasing, sales lower.



sikhthetech - 28 Jul 2024 - 19:24:12 - 18581 of 18644
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I'm expecting TW to continue to build fewer houses compared to previous year, reservations down, cancellations up, lower cash balance, unchanged divi (given their divi policy.
The outlook will be the most interesting bit.

[1carus] 31/7/2024 10:25

Share price has been flat into the results. Market just waiting for confirmation of guidance which is exactly what it has got. Not enough negative to upset the applecart. TW have managed a difficult time well it seems. Jugears will be correct in that share price will be heading for 1.80 in a fairly short time.

[jugears] 31/7/2024 10:22

Marty9 tbf most people I still talk to are busy, general construction seems quiet but as far as house bashing, the plumbers, electricians & plasters I know are still working 6 days a week, considering h2b ended & interest rates have risen the housing market is looking very resilient to, yes lower rates would be good for those that might be struggling to get on the property ladder but lower rates now might have the reverse effect & encourage to many buyers to come out of the woodwork, unfortunately production levels will not increase over night & demand could push prices a lot higher,I have said before once buyers are used to higher rates those that can will slowly return to the market, whilst higher rates are not good for borrowers they are for savers & as there are more savers than borrowers surely its better for the economy as they have more money to spend? tbf 5% interest is not that bad & historically have been a lot more, we could never go back to 0% & hopefully not lower than 3.5%.

gbh2, Labour will not meet 1.5 million houses in 5 years & where has this big assumption come from that the uk wants affordable housing, I am sure hb's would have built more had the demand been there & what is affordable? a two bed box in my village is on sale for 300k & when I say box I mean box, its tiny even the garden is tiny, 5 of these (inc 2 x 3 bed houses have been squeezed on to the smallest plot you could imagine, to me affordable is 125-150k & that will never be achievable in the uk whether it is Brown, grey or greenfield land, Labour are completely away with the fairies!!!!

[martyn9] 31/7/2024 09:55

Jug an interest rate cut of half percent imo now is required and can be done, its the only sodding way to kick start the economy and reduce manufacturing and distribution costs vital in lifting out of this turmoil.

[gbh2] 31/7/2024 09:54

I'm looking forward to Liebour's ridiculous promises being acted upon :)

[jugears] 31/7/2024 09:32

Martyn9, all we need now is a cut in interest rates & we will be rapidly on our way to £2, must be a different time zone where sick lives, that or the paper boy didn't turn up & sikhs having to do it himself today? oh well onwards & upwards as they say!

[kreature] 31/7/2024 08:56

TW will end the week in the red I reckon. Artificial rises based on hope, and forward looking guessing, not to mention the underlying “scamming̶1; as one MP described it. Maker trying their best tho tbf

[martyn9] 31/7/2024 08:16

Favorable results considering the state of the economy, markets happy with 6 month update.

[tlobs2] 31/7/2024 07:59

I see that our resident doom mongers have crawled back under their rocks :-)

[craftyale] 31/7/2024 07:46

Market likes the results. Sp up, div coming our way. :))