Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 13/6/2024 14:19

The mug-punters are those that did not invest at 86p when I advised those on here to buy.
They would have made over 70% profit plus 9% yeild.

Remember my Statement...
BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.

Q3 24 - BoE base rate to reduce.

Tw. Earnings to increase in 2025.

[jugears] 13/6/2024 14:17

Sick, tell me a bit more about this house your mate bought for 20% less than 2007, you are clearly leaving something out, has bits of land been sold off as building plots since? or has it subsided? or is it just a pile of bricks? you are clearly not telling us the whole story are you, Luton & Cardiff all over again isn't it?

[danvandan] 13/6/2024 13:47

I wonder how your account would look if you were to sell all of your TW shares now and buy them back at £1 in August jugs. Just wondering.

[sikhthetech] 13/6/2024 12:17

The mug punters were those who continued to load up all the way down from around 200p.

Those who went short and then traded have done much better.

[sikhthetech] 13/6/2024 12:15

As expected, Crst warns...

Sales down
Divi slashed
Cash declining fast
Now in net debt.


Other HBs have a flexible divi policy, so they can slash divi to conserve cash. The problem with TW is they are committed to c7.5% of NAV. Unless they change their divi policy they are at risk of running out of cash.

Crst:


Revenue £257.5m (HY23: £282.7m)
Home completions 788 (HY23: 894), comprising open market private of 435 (HY23: 532), bulk deals of 177 (HY23: 115) and affordable completions of 176 (HY23: 247)

Sales per outlet per week (SPOW) of 0.47 (HY23: 0.54) with average outlets at 45 (HY23: 48). Average selling prices have remained stable year on year
Adjusted operating profit1 after accounting for £5.9m of completed sites charges at £6.2m (HY23: £22.1m) also reflecting lower volume and a higher proportion of revenue from low margin sites as the Group makes good progress in reducing low margin inventory

Statutory loss after tax of £23.4m (HY23: profit of £21.1m)

A continued focus on cash management has enabled the Group to maintain balance sheet strength with net debt1,2 at £9.4m (HY23: net cash1,2 £66.2m). £250m revolving credit facility undrawn (HY23: undrawn)

Interim dividend at 1.0 pence per share (HY23: 5.5 pence per share)






sikhthetech - 08 Mar 2024 - 14:53:02 - 17639 of 18172
Having a divi policy fixed on NAV drains cash and drains it faster if housing market, number of new builds fall for a longer period of time.

[jugears] 13/6/2024 12:07

Who are the mug punters, those that didn't invest below 90P???? I totally agree! I think IMEO that the shares price has risen along with the rest of the market & also because the housing market isn't anywhere near as bad as predicted(as I expected).

[rwlly1] 13/6/2024 11:33

The recent rise in the share price was designed to pull in the mug punters, this is how the city works.

[jugears] 13/6/2024 10:55

I am surprised that Tw. are not down a lot further today but then if the markets have done their home work they will understand that Crest have had a lot of past build issues on legacy sites & have also been hit harder by historic Fire safety costs than other builders, when you take that into perspective the results were not really that bad, My expectation & understanding is that TW will come in bang on as predicted.

[beckers2008] 13/6/2024 09:49

Sikhthetech,

What a mug-punter you are, TLY was 300p (advised by a poster on TLY) a share when you invested and made up your own premium ramping board over ten years ago, lol!

I told you to sell when TLY were 40p, you no listen, it went to 3.8p on the bid, lol!

You have once again proven that you are a village idiot...
When is your house price crash prediction gonna come true, you've been wrong every year for 6 years, lol, just lol!

Your not credible.

[sunshine today] 13/6/2024 08:28

Crest dire results and market now desd.

The imminent General Election is creating some short-term uncertainty, but this is anticipated to be alleviated in July once the outcome is known.

[danvandan] 13/6/2024 07:17

If Bellway's results were the wake-up call, Crest's numbers are the coffee arriving at the bedside table. Six more weeks for the full impact of the market slowdown to hit TW before the next results announcement.

[kreature] 13/6/2024 07:10

Everything possibly fine here though. Dunno for sure tho. Maybe dyor?

[danvandan] 13/6/2024 07:05

And in case you missed it yesterday, the US has kept interest rates unchanged and the UK is widely expected to follow suit later this month.

[danvandan] 13/6/2024 06:59

A total collapse in profits at Crest. From net cash to net debt. They admit the market has 'softened' since Easter due to interest rate cuts getting pushed back.

Statutory loss after tax of £23.4m (HY23: profit of £21.1m).

Unsurprisingly, they've all but cancelled the dividend, slashing it by 82%.

[gbh2] 13/6/2024 06:23

"it would be totally stupid to flood the market"

Problem is there could soon be a Labour government and they've always proved just how stupid they are, selling off our gold at the lowest possible price being a prime example of stupid.

[kreature] 12/6/2024 22:42

First Port manage a lot of the new build estates right…..

Trustpilot on First Port:

‘ Helen——-
8 reviews
GB
Rated 1 out of 5 stars
12 hours ago
Appallingly inept - even estate agents don’t want to take on properties that are under their management!
Absolutely shocking that homeowners are deliberately being held to ransom by this shambolic company. I’ve lost my buyers today with them and their solicitor saying it’s 💯 the fault of FirstPort. They say this company’s terrible reputation and general ineptness had lead them to instructing their clients to stop their purchase just before exchange. You only have to look at their reviews (like they did) to see how disgusting their practises are. I know of two other estates in this area who are forming residents’ action groups with local councillors and MP’s to get them removed as the management company. Do the same - if enough people all band together we can get rid of them!
Date of experience: 12 June 2024’

[1carus] 12/6/2024 22:02

Jug, I think the divi is safe, it is in the plan to reward investors throughout the cycle.

[jugears] 12/6/2024 21:50

Sikh, I have know idea what the next dividend will be or when it will be,they may not pay another one this year, although I suspect they will but I never take anything for granted but like I have said before I am expectiing the TU to be exactly as guided by TW.
I don't doubt your friend bought a house cheaper but as unlike your classic slip up! I can't compare the condition of the house when it sold in 2007 to when he supposedly bought it in 2024 but if your Luton example is anything to go on then it has obviously been trashed or had an unfinished renovation, either the house was sold at a very expensive price in 2007 or something extreme has happened since, I find it very unlikely IMEO that a property would be anything less than plus 50% of the price in 2007 & more likely doubled plus, I know I bought a house in 2009 that has risen by 125%, but strange things do happen sometimes, I.know of an estate where all of the houses are empty & have been for over two years because there is a dispute with highways England over access to the site, perhaps these will be coming cheap?

[sikhthetech] 12/6/2024 20:16

Jugears

"I wouldn't post anything on here that any of my contacts in the trade tell me"

It's never stopped you in the past, so go on, no need for exact figures...
with HBs updates, TW/Crest/PSN the following:

1) dividend - will it be lower than previous
2) revenues - how much lower/higher than previous
3) rough % diff in private reservations compared to previous
4) outlook

Prove you haven't been posting BS all along.


Like I said, from my experience of what's happening, some prices are still lower in auctions. My friend bought a property last month from an estate agent for around 20% lower than it sold for before GFC, 2007.

[sikhthetech] 12/6/2024 20:02

Cupra Kid

"If you for one minute think everything is going by to be achieved in a false hope manifesto then you’re very naive.

The builders control the pace they build at and no one else. The demand is there but it would be totally stupid to flood the market."

Exactly the point.

However, the govn or HBs will have to back down. I can't imagine the govn backing down, so there'll be pressure on HBs.

The CMA investigation outcome is likely to be a big influence.

[death by donut] 12/6/2024 19:46

I'm talking about social ( rented) , affordable is on the private side as I see it , shared (part mortgage)I also didn't say all , just said HBs .Again, as before, I'm just stating what i see on the ground , we're on around 40 sites , and the new wave of corporate buying up large chunks of the plots is a big part of current workload.One of the sites is ¾ rented and ¼ private.Again GL which ever way you trade.DbD