Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 03/6/2024 11:02

Jugears,

"house prices are rising not falling."

Can you provide evidence to backup your claim? Post properties in a dozen towns which, over the past 5years (pre-post covid), have sold for more than they were bought. The same properties. I provided evidence of dozens which were sold at huge loss.
There are thousands of people in negative equity.

I posted that a friend of mine recently bought a property for lower than it was priced just before GFC, 2007.

[danvandan] 03/6/2024 10:31

And btw, as for shorters being 'desperate' - the shareprice is flat over the last six months apart from a short period where reality about profits raised its ugly head and the share price dropped into the 130s. The shares were subsequently hyped with media talk about interest rate cuts (now not happening) and inflated asking prices (won't be achieved) plus TW share buying through dividend re-investment. The share price has rallied a mere 10% and has failed to break through 150p three times over the last three weeks. It will not last.

We will be revisiting the 130s soon enough, and then the 120s... I do not expect YOU to sell jugs, but at the same time, I don't think there will be as many buyers as sellers here.

[danvandan] 03/6/2024 10:14

jugears, I can save you the trouble of replying since I know that you'll be saying; 'I'll never sell my TW shares, bought them for tuppence, had millions back in dividends, people will always need houses, my mate is a builder and he just sold a house, a huge house in my village has just been sold to Somalians and everyone's delighted, and my estate agent friend could sell all the houses in London twice over blah, blah, blah...'

[danvandan] 03/6/2024 10:08

jugears, talking in vague generalities again.

FACTS are what matters. As soon as someone posts a realistic comment on the situations, you're on here blathering away about what YOU would do. Uhound is right. The economy is skating along just above recession. Taxes are taking an increasingly large amount of people's earnings due to static thresholds; we have a labour govt likely soon and they will find a way to tax and spend even more than the current one.

I'm seeing news pieces on the lack of affordable housing and labour claims that they would create 300,000 AFFORDABLE homes annually. Cheap homes will bring market prices down. My guess is that house prices will at best, remain flat for several years, and at worst, drop a little due to over supply from divesting landlords and a shrinking indigenous population (people dying, homes being inherited and sold).

It's been widely reported that TW has cut back on house production and is feeling the impact of build cost inflation - profits will be smaller than last year, and that was already a bad year with a 44% drop in profits.

At most, there's eight weeks before the bad news comes out in TW's half year results. There is also the prospect of profit warnings from other builders in the meantime, bringing reality to the sector.

[jugears] 03/6/2024 09:50

UOLDDOG, now would I live in a million pound box in London or a farm with rolling countryside in yorkshire, Derbyshire or anywhere north of Watford gap for the same money? I have traveled the length & breadth of this country & can not see any appeal to living in the south apart from the New Forest.
The demand is still there & even though I am retired I still talk to people in the trade & its the larger properties on estates that are more in demand than the lower end properties & I am sure a house builder echoed this recently, you say the economy isn't picking up but everyone seems busy, there are no mas redundancies anywhere & still extremely difficult to get staff.
gbh2, I think like me you can clearly see the desperation of the shorter's on this board!

[sunshine today] 03/6/2024 09:17

umm, i was in the south east this weekend Thame was the town , had the pleasure of walking mates dog through a new build site.

House after house with the for sale board.

Must have been 20 terraced 4 beds , just looked up the price £533,000 a time.

They clearly are NOT selling.

[uhound] 03/6/2024 09:12

House prices in London and South East are caused by peoples desire to live in those areas. I know plenty of people who'd love to buy in London (for some reason!) but can't afford it. Like any area - the more desirable places cost more. Are they good value? Depends on your view.

Ultimately house builders want to build where they can maximise profits. As we have seen, they have slowed up production due to affordability. Interest rates, material costs, the slowing economy, etc. Is the economy picking up - not really. Interest rates are unlikely to fall to levels that caused the last boom.

Ok, the demand is there for homes, but from those who don't have the means to buy.
Ok, there are those cash rich, but they don't tend to buy the typical estate homes the big builders build.

House builders will do ok, but I think the profits going forward are likely to be lower than previously seen. Are the shares cheap now or fair value?

What is the catalyst for them to rise faster than the FTSE?

[jugears] 03/6/2024 08:20

London & the south have been over priced for many years so I won't get the violin out, reality was bound to hit home sooner or later,although I have a cousin in the south who builds houses & doesn't seem to be having much problem selling them.
I do wonder if sickly.com has dementia? he has repeated the same posts for 7 years & still house prices are increasing, my estate agent friend has said all along that there are two few houses coming to the market & when I spoke to the house builders in 2022 they were still building & selling plenty of houses,again in 2023 they have sold all the houses they planned to build.

[gbh2] 03/6/2024 08:11

Around here we see houses go on the market at prices well over likely sale price, recent one a couple of streets away was on at +370K sold within two weeks at 346K

I know the owners were over the moon with the price they received :)

Another house on the same street, owner died, family had the house cleared by a company in just 7 hours. House itself is in need of lots of work inside and out so they put it up for action, guide price 250K, it went for just under 300K

[uhound] 03/6/2024 07:50

Does anyone actually work in the property industry here?
Any estate agents, builders, conveyancers?

Depends on the area I guess. In my area (South)house prices are still falling. People can't afford to move up, so sellers are having to reduce prices.

Slightly more properties coming to market, some desperate sellers too!

[jugears] 03/6/2024 07:17

Who has negative equity? house prices are rising not falling.

[kreature] 03/6/2024 06:41

Sorry wrong review above . I meant to post this genuine one :

‘ Nicholas ——
2 reviews
GB
Rated 4 out of 5 stars
4 days ago
Verified
Getting the new house I’ve always wanted
Date of experience: 21 May 2024

[kreature] 03/6/2024 06:39

Another happy customer :

‘ Sarah ———;—
2 reviews
GB
Rated 2 out of 5 stars
3 days ago
After care is terrible and the estate…
After care is terrible and the estate is yet to be finished. Which has been promised many times and not followed through. But the worst bit is the toddlers park that was built the bins are over flowing with rubbish and attracting rats. When they are contacted they tell us some one will be out and they don’t turn up very poor
Date of experience: 31 May 2024 ‘

(TrustPilot)

[sikhthetech] 02/6/2024 15:12

More and more homeowners are getting into mortgage debt. FACT.

Negative equity is a real problem. New builds usually command a premium. That premium reduces significantly/disappears as the property becomes 2nd owner. If house prices fall or stay stagnant then those who bought new builds can easily be in negative equity.



Jugears,
"even my estate agent friend say we are now past the worst."

You've never claimed that your estate friend ever say that there is worst to come!!
So how can he now claim the 'past the worst'???
Just like you claimed the HBs told you that sales are still booming, yet in their updates they said sales were slowing. wrong again.
lol

[tlobs2] 31/5/2024 14:53

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter, BBC News
Published
31 May 2024, 08:56 BST
Updated 5 hours ago


UK house prices returned to growth in May after rising by 0.4%, according to Nationwide, as buyers' confidence was buoyed by wage growth and lower inflation.

The average house price reached £264,249 this month, compared to £261,962 in April, the building society said.

Mortgage rates in the UK have been comparatively high because the Bank of England is not forecast to cut interest rates as quickly or as steeply as initially predicted at the beginning of this year.

May's gain reverses a 0.4% drop in the previous month.

Andrew Harvey, senior economist at Nationwide, said: "I think we have been a little surprised actually by the resilience in the market because those affordability pressures have been quite significant."

Over the year to May, house prices rose by 1.3%, said Nationwide. That compares to 0.6% growth in the 12 months to April.

The building society said that consumer confidence had "improved noticeably over the last few months, supported by solid wage gains and lower inflation".

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 14:28

And just keep in mind that if interest rates start going up again, the market will likely have a major contraction. 5% is historically still a low interest rate; for most of the last 50 years interest rates have been significantly higher. The central banks have recently been walking back their predictions on rate cuts - predictions for the BoE were three cuts this year, then two (after the likelihood of a June rate cut was abandoned) and now just one rate cut is predicted. The next step will be no rate cuts. Then what?

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 14:19

Looking at the low volume of TW share trading, I'd say there's a recognition by the market that the shareprice here has topped out. TW's earnings will be hit by low volume of sales, flat or discounted pricing and build cost inflation. The shares are at a high that's completely unjustified given the earnings outlook.

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 14:13

How about that jugears, '...even my estate agent friend say we are now past the worst.'

Estate agents are always a reliable source, right? I think what he really means is that he hopes we're past the worst, and that might even be true, but what we are NOT past is a long year of expensive mortgages, stagnating or falling prices, low volumes and a glut of properties on the market.

The number of properties on the market is reportedly at an eight-year high. A third of properties on the popular property sites are relisted from last year.

[jugears] 31/5/2024 14:05

gbh2, same in my village, I've noticed just how quick property have sold & still very few properties coming to the market, Still nearly 50% down in my village alone on pre Covid, I wonder how like it will take the idiots to realise that property sales are increasing again & so are property prices & IMEO this will continue even if rates don't fall, once people are used to paying more & accept that that is now the norm then buyers will return, even my estate agent friend say we are now past the worst.

[jugears] 31/5/2024 13:58

Yahoo Finance Lol Oh Lol
Morning Star Lol Oh Bloody Lol
FT lol oh lol the Beano for investors

How many properties have a granny annex???????

I'd be worried about those shorts if I were you, Very Worried!

[gbh2] 31/5/2024 13:51

G'afternoon jugears,three houses recently up for sale on our avenue, due to death and folk moving into Nursing homes.

One sold within two weeks, the 2nd went to auction (needs lots doing to it) but went for a good price, the 3rd For Sale sign went up last Tuesday.

Holding TW is a no brainier, I've stopped trading TW now and will sit on my holding (ave 132p) until it's my turn to pass everything on to our family.

Far better trading option elsewhere, to keep me entertained :)

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 13:30

Regarding the news story from Nationwide today and it's 0.4% rise in house prices, this applies only to non-cash buyers and no buy-to-let landlords. You can bet that they will have dragged prices down.

Also, Nationwide only accounts for 10% of the UK's mortgages. There's a better balanced report in the FT today that shows that the UK housing market is stagnating and that this will continue this year.

The excitement about interest rate cuts has abated; the BoE is now predicted to only make one rate cut this year.

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 13:26

A cautionary tale here. Landlords are divesting as quickly as possible because of higher loan costs to avoid the fate of the person in this article:

‘I was a landlord with 57 homes – then the banks repossessed them all’

[danvandan] 31/5/2024 13:23

House buyers face stamp duty hike this weekend as ‘granny annexe tax’ kicks in,