Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[beckers2008] 22/5/2024 15:42

Sikhthetech,

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[jugears] 22/5/2024 15:07

DVD,Thanks for your thought but I don't buy into it, at some point rates will fall & buyers will return & that is going to create a huge housing shortage as there is no spare new housing stock to cover that demand & we all know what happens when demand out strips supply, anyway we all managed quite well with 5/6/7/even 15% mortgage, house prices may have gone up but so have wages to cover higher costs.
In an ideal world property would rise by a steady 2-3% in the uk, but since the financial crisis you would be hard pushed to find any property that hasn't doubled in value & there doesn't look like a frenzy to sell property anytime soon which will not help property prices fall, not good for first time buyers but it doesn't effect property owners up sizing or downsizing as they will have made a very good profit on their existing property ,of course you seem to assume that people are taking out large mortgages which is not always the case & as we all know a third of buyers pay cash, IMO this number will get bigger in the future, everyone has different financial circumstances so it is not possible to say who can or can't afford a mortgage. several of my contacts has said that the higher end houses 3/4/5 bedroom are the most sort after at the moment anyway.

[danvandan] 22/5/2024 14:41

sikh, looking back over the posts on this board over the last couple of years, it seems that you and jugears have become locked into eternal keyboard warrior combat. You both have my sympathy and I have to admire your staying power sikh; the shareprice has confounded rational argument. Who could have guessed covid would have thrown up such a surprising buyer dynamic?

I think you will be proven right eventually - all good things come to an end - and my bet (with mixed feelings) is that it began last year for the house builders and will accelerate this year.

[danvandan] 22/5/2024 14:34

From GB news... yeah, ok. Maybe an opportunity for some people to cash in and put the money into the stock market or a high interest bond or whatever, because property will not be increasing in value the way it has for the last decade. A better measure of actual sale prices will come from the mortgage providers.

The more important metric though is buyer volume. TW needs to sell 10,000 houses this year at good prices just to stand still. Maybe they'll do it, but the pressure is on. H1 results in black and white in 10 weeks time.

[beckers2008] 22/5/2024 14:24

From GB News...

House prices have risen across the UK, which is good news for Britons looking to sell.

The latest Government House Price Index released today reveals the areas where you will get the most for your property.


On average, UK property values are up 1.8 per cent on this time last year, and up 0.7 per cent between February and March 2024.


Property in Scotland has increased the most month-on-month and values are up 2.3 per cent on last year, to £191,678.

House prices are highest in London.
Despite having the biggest increase, it is the second most affordable place to buy a property in the UK. London had the biggest drop - with prices down 0.9 per cent - yet the capital has the priciest homes overall.

Regions with highest house prices

London - £499,663

South East - £373,223

East of England - £341,979

South West - £316,262

West Midlands Region - £246,298

East Midlands - £242,223

North West - £216,501

Wales - £213,753

Yorkshire and The Humber - £209,868

Scotland - £191,678

Northern Ireland - £178,499

North East - £158,569

The average property price is £282,776, up from £277,855 in March 2023.

Detached properties will fetch the most and have had the biggest increase in price, jumping from £429,319 to £440,085
- Guess what Wimps builds, lovely jubbly!

[sikhthetech] 22/5/2024 14:17

Jugears
"I do not believe your friend bought a property for 20% less than 2007 unless the house was overvalued then"

It makes no difference if you believe me or not. My opinions are based on my research, which includes following the housing market in UK and other countries.
The fact the HB newsflow has been as predicted is all that matters.

"Can never understand the the markets I"

That's your problem, you've tunnel vision and have no concept of how markets, housing market, economies, govns etc work.


"Why Don you just face it against all the odds of the last four years New houses are still selling & property price are 1% higher than a year ago"

Have you seen the huge incentives offered by the HBs to entice buyers? As well as lenders needing to be competitive. The govn encouraging longer term mortgages....

It's a hyped market.

[danvandan] 22/5/2024 14:04

The BoE's reluctance to immediately reduce rates makes sense when you remember that the very low rates that we've had for the last 15 years were a response to the global financial crisis. They have been UNNATURALLY LOW. Take a look at rates over the last 50 years, a period where average inflation coincidentally ran at about 5%, and you'll see that even 5% was a very low interest rate for this period. Rates were typically much higher.

[danvandan] 22/5/2024 13:38

Fixed rate mortgages are charging about 6% interest. Before the rate rises, fixed rate mortgages were about 2%. Today, people are having to pay roughly £12,000 a year more to service a new £300k mortgage. In terms of AFFORDABILITY, a house would have to be about £72k cheaper than before for monthly mortgage payments to be the same as they were a couple of years ago. It will take a long time for a price drop of that scale to work its way through.

The BoE was mostly moving the rate up by 0.25%. Even two cuts of that size will only bring mortgage rates down by 0.5%. It will NOT be like turning on a tap for the housing market. Buyer sentiment will need to change too. The message has finally landed with buyers - mortgages can get expensive very quickly. New homeowners will only trickle in. Eventually, wage inflation will close the affordability gap, but it won't be this summer.

It might take a month or two, but this realisation will hit the shareprice soon.

[beckers2008] 22/5/2024 10:54

Currency analysist summary following inflation figures...

"The pound (GBP) traded in a wide range yesterday as economic optimism and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut bets pulled the currency in different directions.

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 growth forecast for the UK, it also said that the BoE should cut rates two or three times this year.

This morning, the UK’s latest consumer price index exceeded expectations. Both headline and core inflation eased less than expected in April, with the former dropping from 3.2% to 2.3%, versus forecasts of 2.1%. The pound has leapt higher in response as markets trim BoE June rate cut bets."

As expected...

Late October 22, I posted
Imo, BoE to cut base rate from currently 5.25%,(not 6%). Starting in Q3 2024.

[martyn9] 22/5/2024 09:43

No doubt the share price will rise tomorrow, all down to fickle traders.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/5/2024 08:52

#Jugs, the market will always sell off if the numbers do not hit the consensus, the drop to 2.3% from 3.2% is a massive step forward IMO.. rate cuts will follow after a month or 2 of stability is reported around 2%..

The BOE have history of going forward looking in the rear view mirror, most of the inflation that is left is driven by the higher home ownership / rental costs caused by high interest rates (CPIH) so it will reverse after the 1st cut has sunk in..

[jugears] 22/5/2024 08:32

Can never understand the the markets I mean look at Ocado its never made a profit lol

[beckers2008] 22/5/2024 08:25

Kreature or should I say Joseph Sheedy, lol!

How's your short from the 10th November, lol, just lol!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/5/2024 08:22

#Jugs, CPI was 2.3% but Core CPI was 3.9% (ex fuel and food)

An over reaction from the bell, but the FTSE is pulling back now..

[kreature] 22/5/2024 08:00

Inflation fall was less than expected which makes a rate cut less likely. Prices still rising, just at a slower pace. Sp no longer in the 150s, that’s the reality.

[beckers2008] 22/5/2024 07:43

sT,

Inflation falling to 2.3%, as expected...

I told you...

BoE base rate 6%?
Absolutely no chance.

[beckers2008] 21/5/2024 21:24

Sikhthetech,

At least 30% pay cash for their properties in the UK and those remaining have less than a 95% LTV ratio.
As your always banging on about an affordability crisis, lol!
Please provide a breakdown of the figures because you seem to imply that you know every individual's debt value, lol!

Now, when is your each and every year's (for the last 6 years) house price crash gonna happen?
Lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 21/5/2024 21:07

Jugears,

It's good to have opposing opinions as that makes a market. However, there's no consistency in your views. I said years ago, why would I buy any asset if I believe it was going to fall significantly. So the view to go short/trading has proven to be better.

The reason why there isn't a surge of repossessions is because the govn took action and told lenders to try and avoid evictions/repossessions. Why do you think they did that? For the fun of it or because they were genuinely concerned that lots of homeowners are in mortgage debt and wanted also to avoid overwhelming the court system?
The problem with that policy is mortgage debt keeps increasing. Those homeowners continue living at the property until lenders take action. During covid all courts were suspended but now should be fully functioning.

I mentioned my friend, who bought a property last week for around 20% less than it was in 2007. Therefore, there are sellers prepared to sell lower than they paid.

[jugears] 21/5/2024 20:51

Well whatever happens I can't do anything about it, interst rates will fall & the housing market will boom once again, as I don't invest money I will need it won't effect me if I have to wait a bit longer, if they drop then I will buy a load more, it definately won't stay around 1.50 forever.

[beckers2008] 21/5/2024 20:40

""DanVanDan - 08 Apr 2024 - 09:12:56 - 28156 of 28224
Chart has broken through the support line. Nothing to stop this falling to the 100-110p area now. Interim divi ex date was 28 March, so a lot of short-term holders seem to be exiting. Just an observation; no need for people to get hysterical on here. I am short here -- full disclosure"" END.

You need to stop shouting your mouth off, your getting as bad as the village idiot, 'Sikhthetech', it gets ripped a new one regularly, maybe you will soon?
You need to remember what you state, lol, just lol!