Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 28/8/2020 12:02

disney

"Selling high end apartments in CL has been a slowing market for a few years now, and COVID has just reinforced that trend. "


Absolutely and confirmed by the Zoopla comment which tblob2 posted earlier:

"Zoopla said four- and five-bed houses are selling quickly as buyers prioritise more space and migrate away from the more expensive cities."


Whenever there is a temporary govn scheme, sales always increase as people take advantage of it before it ends. I believe the increase in sales is purely down to govn support. What will happen once the govn support finishes?

[jugears] 28/8/2020 11:52

Dd, not the sites I am on.

[gbh2] 28/8/2020 11:39

Picked a few up 119p, can't resist price below 120p.

[disneydonald] 28/8/2020 11:20

Jugs. Central London? Selling high end apartments in CL has been a slowing market for a few years now, and COVID has just reinforced that trend. Outer London is flat, of course people are still building as they are committed to developing sites. CL developments are more difficult because of permit restrictions, site access, much longer WIP requirements etc. Just track and monitor CL sales for Wimps. You will see it is slow compared to outside CL.

[jugears] 28/8/2020 11:03

Disney I work for many companies still building in London & still very busy selling.

[disneydonald] 28/8/2020 10:23

One of the reasons Wimps is lagging, is the fact they have in recent years made a large investment in Central London. This hasn’t played well with the market, both during Brexit and now COVID. It’s clear that builders can sell anything they can build at the mo, probably with good margins as well, but Central London is seen as a constraint. All major builders got out of Central London during the Brexit phase, only specialists such as BKG are given the benefit of the doubt. Will just take time to play out for the better. I expect this sideways shuffle to last until we get some reference points.

[jugears] 28/8/2020 10:18

tlobs2 During my 45 minute driver to work I have noticed several houses to have a for sale sign out side one day & sold the next, also property is selling for the full asking price,within a mile of my house there is normally up to 80 houses for sale at any one time, it is now down to 20. we have had to ramp up production on all hb's sites now & IMO we will see much better news coming out of Tw when they next report. Looks like today will end in blue.

[jugears] 28/8/2020 08:18

A lot of hb's now taking on new staff.

[stewart64] 28/8/2020 07:57

We are hopefully completing on our chain on the 4th Sept. My only worry is the chain unwinds from the top down as the top of the chain gets uneasy about the strong Market as they are going to rent. Not a problem the new build market will have as it terminates a chain. Virtually all our previous watchlist from a couple of months back ( 36 properties) now sold.

If you want to deal in facts and not anecdotals, an easy way to check on the strength of the Market is to strike a sold ratio off rightmove. London is around the 33% mark ( 25% to 33% is about the long term average) but most counties around 50%. Derbyshire, for example, 51%.

[tlobs2] 28/8/2020 07:36

From LinkedIn


Demand for houses has rocketed since the end of lockdown, according to a report from property website Zoopla. Properties are also selling far faster than before the pandemic hit, with the average selling time of a home decreasing to 27 days since lockdown eased, compared to 39 days in the same period last year.

Zoopla said four- and five-bed houses are selling quickly as buyers prioritise more space and migrate away from the more expensive cities. The firm also believes house prices will rise 2-3% this year.

[stewart64] 28/8/2020 07:32

Ironic that TW is marked down to virtually book value during the biggest Provincial housing boom since about 2003.A book value with no intangibles or debt. Would also guess its profit margin just now is the highest in the FTSE 100, bar none, as it sells property for the fun of it. Good job the Market is wise and can see through this temporary boom I guess. That or its entire inventory is in London.

[jugears] 27/8/2020 13:49

Probably not many

[sikhthetech] 27/8/2020 13:42

Jug/tblob2,

It's obvious there was going to be pent up demand - the govn relaxed Stamp Duty for 6 months and lockdown was being relaxed. Therefor anyone thinking of buying over the next few months would do so to take advantage of no Stamp Duty in case there was a 2nd lockdown.

Furlough ends in 2 months, increasing unemployment, Brexit in 4 months..



Crucially, significant changes to Help to Buy in 6 months, where only First Time Buyers(ftb) can access it.

How many Ftb buy New Builds? How many ftb bought TW/PSN or any of the other HBs New Builds?

[nortic 007] 27/8/2020 11:48

They do seem to have found a level here. What do you think DiscoDave45 ?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 27/8/2020 09:50

Nope, none at all..

;-)



(Read a little further back on the thread. Post 510-520, 638 and yesterday's)

[johnny1982] 27/8/2020 09:29

Newbie here. Any thoughts why TW has not recovered like Persimon and Berkeley?

[jugears] 27/8/2020 09:25

I also see even more companies taking on staff, & the younger none house buying generation that are suffering the most job losses, so that's going to be terrible news for the housing market isn't it!!!!

[tlobs2] 27/8/2020 08:52

Pent-up demand has led to properties taking less time to sell since the height of lockdown, according to research.

In the 90 days to mid-August, a three-bedroom home has typically sold in 24 days, property portal Zoopla said. This is 12 days quicker than the same period a year ago. All types of property have been selling faster, its research suggested.
People have been reconsidering what they want from a home.

One-bedroom flats are now taking the longest to sell at 34 days, although they are also selling much faster than historical norms.

The number of property sales in the UK remains low this year owing to the halt put on the housing market at the heart of the coronavirus outbreak. However, there has been a mini-boom since the market reopened in different parts of the UK. Sales agreed on the portal were 76% higher than the five-year average, Zoopla said.

"Buyer appetite has been widely attributed to pent-up demand resulting from lockdown, but it also reflects the impact on the nation as it collectively reassesses what it wants and needs from a home," its report said.
"Quarantine has galvanised many homeowners and renters into reconsidering their housing requirements, resulting in demand for more space and changing work and commuting patterns."

That has led to greater demand for larger homes when buyers - often those without the need for a mortgage - can afford it.

Demand had also been given "extra impetus" in London and the south-east England as a result of the temporary stamp duty holiday, according to Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Zoopla.

Rival property portal Rightmove recently said that landlords and owners should show off gardens in marketing photos as house-hunters who have been forced to spend so much more time at home this year increasingly put a value on space.

[jugears] 27/8/2020 06:05

Sikh I see in today's press that due to pent up demand houses are selling faster & it is now unlikely we will see house prices fall in the near future, despite a recession.

[jugears] 26/8/2020 18:24

Sikh, My daughter has always saved & had a good business head like me, I have always made her work for her pocket money & has held weekend jobs since she was 13/ bought & sold horses from an early age & has started investing in the stock market,I have alway told her the same as my dad told me & that money makes money, the more you save the better the return, she was left some money but I have only given her £10k, Whilst her mates were out shopping or getting wasted she worked & saved & its not that difficult to save large sums if you put your mind to it, living at home free of charge helps.

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 17:06

Jug,

This recession is not like an ordinary downturn, like previous recessions.. that is the point...

Until you can provide evidence, I believe H2B has been underpinning the New Build market and it closing or changing will have a major impact.
How many homes have TW sold to buyers with H2B? They had provision for £125m to redress the Leasehold onerous rents, which were a result of H2B, so I expect there's a fair few.

I agree interest rates are not going to go up soon, although 5 yrs might be optimistic, I would have thought nearer to 10yrs..

Younger generation would earn more than anyone from 50-60yrs ago, it's called price inflation!! Your daughter earning £30k is just above average wage, whereas someone in the 60s would have been on around £300-£500 per year.

That is the point though, avg house prices £250k, avg wage £22k, so 10times earnings...
Mortgages tend to be 4-5 x earnings..
Therefore, house prices are too high..