Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 12:41

Ah leave it, it's a pointless discussion.

It boils down to the same 'debate' about the shares - sikh et al believes the market for housing has fundamentally changed and anything housebuilding related is worth less, if not worthless.

Other don't - or at least perceive that a 50% reduction in the TW. share price, a half a billion rights issue and a half a billion dividend not (yet) paid) reflects any such change.

The same argument(s) apply to your business. And buy to let.

That's kind of it. Time will tell.

[jugears] 25/8/2020 12:19

sikh you have lost me completely here now, whats the argument about? Buy to let brings me a good income in,I am not complaining, There is still a booming buy to let market, just look at Manchester.

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 12:17

Imastu

"But in the real world, disposing of a business as an owner/manager has complexity to it that simply buying and selling a share does not."

That's the process not the Principle.

2 different things.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 12:14

Maybe, we take the view that the business of building and selling houses has not changed. Maybe we are wrong, maybe we are right.

But in the real world, disposing of a business as an owner/manager has complexity to it that simply buying and selling a share does not.

Anyway, I don't think this is going to go anywhere productive.

btw, fwiw, it's 'principle'

:-)

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 12:10

Imastu,
The principal is the same.

It's no different to B2l investors who have taken advantage of favourable market/tax conditions and have built up a huge property portfolio...

You will have the similar issues, staff, managing agents, taxman etc etc.


The same goes for PIs who have built up a huge share portfolio.. The same principals...

The climate has changed, you need to adapt.

Like you, I manage my own portfolio of shares. Are you saying you don't do any research when you buy/sell and don't adapt when the economic/political/stockmarkets change.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 11:59

Oh dear, you really have no idea do you?

He actually mentioned just a few of the issues including his employees and his own future; there are many others, from legal, to taxation, to structuring a sale, to valuation, to customers, suppliers...

But no, for you it's just the same as buying or selling a share.

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 11:58

EI

"Wider equity markets are strong and the sector is weak."

It's not just HBs. The same is true for the Telecoms, Banks...

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 11:55

Imastu,

"Maybe it's a tad more complicated than the 'principal' (sic) you suggest"

No different to becoming attached to a share, which you have owned for many years and have seen it grow and pay dividends in the past.

B2l investors built up their business over the past 20yrs because of favourable tax climate. That climate is no longer exists.

If the story changes then you need to adapt.

The principal is the same.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 11:51

Nah, maybe a bit weak relatively today, but nothing out of the ordinary for recent months..

It (TW.) came down with the FTSE as it fell back, and is now rising similarly.

Overall, I agree, it has been weak (it has been pathetic) but that's the opportunity. Or that's a reason to slit your throat in some people's view.

[gbh2] 25/8/2020 11:48

"So there's something the market does not like atm."

Hardly surprising given the last few months and lack of dividends, but imo it remains one of the best sectors in which to Invest IF you have the cash and patience.

[essentialinvestor] 25/8/2020 11:44

Wider equity markets are strong and the sector is weak.

So there's something the market does not like atm.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 11:40

sikh, have you formed, ran for c40 years and then sold many businesses?

Maybe it's a tad more complicated than the 'principal' (sic) you suggest...

[gbh2] 25/8/2020 11:24

LOL, None so blind than those that sit on huge losses :))

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 11:24

The same principal applies for businesses, property etc

If you believe everything will be ok over the next few months or whatever period of time suits you then fine, it is your choice, it's your money.

If you believe there are challenges ahead which would affect business or property price then why buy at current valuation.


I believe property prices will crash so I wouldn't buy property at full valuation. If however the property was available for a substantial discount then yes I would be interested.

It's no different.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/8/2020 11:00

He was talking about his business, not TW. shares.

[sikhthetech] 25/8/2020 10:47

gbh2,
"why sell if you don't need the cash"

The point isn't why sell if you don't need the money. The point is why buy if you believe there are challenges ahead which have not been factored into the price.

The 2 are very different.

Obviously if you believe everything will be ok over the next few months or whatever period of time suits you then fine, it is your choice, it's your money.

The govn haven't borrowed £3trillion for fun...
Too many uncertain events which could cause a stock market crash, prolonged global recession etc..

[1carus] 25/8/2020 10:32

Jug, I think it is unclear what is the long term best outcome for brexit. The trade agreement is a mute point. Commerce always finds away, new ways maybe, but whatever the politics there is simply too much trade coming out of the EU to the UK to shut it all down in any meaningful way. The money men will see to that. The UK is a big economy and the Brits are resourceful and will prosper either way. I voted to remain, but given the amount of social cheque writing the the EU are signing up for I think we will be better off out of it. Very difficult to see a fix for Italy and Spain in the short term which I can't see as anything but damaging to the Euro zone. Sad as we all prosper by is all prospering.

[jugears] 25/8/2020 10:17

1carus , I was talking about this this morning with a customer, there seems to be a huge appetite for houses with gardens & room for an office,I think the days of office blocks have now long gone, if anything lock down has taught a lot of companies that staff can work very efficiently & more cost effectively from home at substantial cost savings to there companies, I see by the news today that the uk is even more likely to get a no deal when we leave the EU, Don't see the massive drop in the markets though???? Could it be that the markets expect a no deal???

[1carus] 25/8/2020 09:50

Jug, there is often a golden moment to sell a business. If you do sell, you would need to reduce your hand over period. 18 months will destroy you and probably fill your head full of regrets.... it will be different, that's just the nature of such things. If the new owners think they need 18 months to get to grips with a successful biz in a market they are familiar with I probably wouldn't be selling to them if you are doing anything other than taking the money. It is always very disappointing to effectively lose control and watch what you have built start to get derailed. Sell and walk away, or find someone to take it over for you that you can mentor.(Easier said than done though)
Talking to other suppliers to the building trade yesterday.. order books full a year out, companies fighting now to get hold of raw materials.... Difficult to know how long this will last but I am expecting builders to have same good numbers before they turn bad if at all. I can't get my head around it,, been checking the local estate agents, houses selling within days of going on the market too! It's like any employment issues due to covid is only affecting the low paid that were probably not in the buying market. I have talked to several young couples with kids that have been furloughed, never been better off as most had child care costs etc, all surprisingly relaxed about the future, more home working, which looks like permanent thing going forward... maybe houses will now need a proper office room to cater for home working.

[gbh2] 25/8/2020 08:12

I'm with Jugs regarding why sell if you don't need the cash, however unlike him, I'm not interested in defending my opinion with every sore loser that posts on this or any other thread.

[wfl1970] 25/8/2020 07:59

Jugears is too attached to his company, workforce and especially his TW shares...Selling is difficult for him.

[soilderboy] 25/8/2020 06:19

Sell it mate!!!!I agree with all you have said and i have been there. Only trouble is i never sold.Sell it!!

[jugears] 24/8/2020 22:39

Porshe equally there was a lot the uk didn't benefit from by being in the EU, time will tell. I also look at company news daily & there are many companies that are doing well & my customers are selling houses why else are they increasing my order book on a daily basis?
Sikh I understand where you are coming from but I believe there is a fair amount of bad news factored into the TW sp, The roads are getting busier & uk output is increasing steadily, any good news will start to bring back confidence IMO at the moment there doesn't seem to be any shortage of house buyers & have not seen any house price reductions so far in the areas I look at on a daily basis, Everyone is entitled to there own opinion & mine is more optimistic than yours, at the moment I am winning contracts on increased prices (up 10% on this time last year)Because I very rarely loose customers I seldom take on new ones,I don't advertise & don't have a website but in the last 3 months I have been approached by a lot of new customers asking me to do work for them, not only that but an opposition company wants to take over my company & has upped there offer 3 times now far more than I ever thought it was worth, but then people say I should take the offer especially in the current climate(this involves me working for them for 18 months, which I am not to keen on) but on the other hand if they are so keen to buy me out then they obviously feel confident about the future as do I,despite what may or could happen, My problem is that I have a very loyal workforce that know what I expect & deliver every time & feel that I would be letting them down If I were to sell, especially if they decided that some of my staff were not required at a future date, also I have worked hard to build a company with an outstanding reputation for service & quality which makes it harder to let go,but I am not getting any younger & will need to sell at some point, the question is will the other company still be interested in a few years time or will I have missed the boat?

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 21:32

There's only one way to find out. However, it may be what the market is
beginning to consider as a longer term factor.

It may also explain the very significant recent outperformance by Berkeley Group
re many other sector companies.

[porsche1945] 24/8/2020 21:31

The U.K. market isnt going anywhere (as usual, below where it was 20 years ago, pitiful) until the self harming impoverishing brexit fiasco is sorted (almost certainly a disaster with wheezing Bunter and his cronies involved) You cannot unpick a forty year old trade agreement (that the U.K. helped write and benefit from) without putting off investors, the trashed currency isnt helping either. Brexit referendum cretinous when they should have understood the discontent in the north after years of austerity (nothing to do with europe, just bad tory management) and just how thick the average brit is. Doomed.