Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 26/8/2020 16:52

Sikh, not sure how old you are but I remember at least 4 recessions, First house I bought in the 80's cost 60,000,sold it for 45,000 10 years later, now worth 290,000,
25 years ago bought a house(2 Bed) for 52000, now worth 195,000, 18 years ago I bought a house (3 bed) for 78,000 , now worth 295,000, 10 years ago I bought a 5 bed house for 155,000 & now worth 315,000, All but my first house I still own. You can throw what you like at the housing market but it always recovers, There is no evidence that help to buy has helped anyone get on the housing later that wouldn't have bought anyway. For all we know it could have been a white elephant, but we won't know until it ends, one thing is for sure interest rates wont be going back up for at least a 5 years.You say massive premium on new builds but that is a buyers choice its no different to buying a new car & loosing 25% of its value as soon as you leave the garage four court, why does it have to be people upgrading, many young people earn better wages than the older generation, my daughter is 20 & earns £30k a year, a friends son is 28 & has just bought a house for £850k perhaps you are out of touch with today's wages?

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 16:51

Look at the graphs of all the HBs, they are all moving in sync..

If the sector recovers, they will all recover..

If the stockmarket crashes, they will all crash further, even though they have already crashed... HBs are not immune,

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 16:43

ftir,
lol..

It's up to them, it's their money.. all I do is counter their bull posts and they don't like it - lol

My opinion here hasn't changed and I've been consistent throughout.

If the story changes then I will revisit...

I've never seen so many uncertain events coming together in such a short space of time... That, for me, is serious concern...

Time will tell..

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 16:37

oh yes gbh, I've also been negative on Banks..

This was my 1st post on the LLoyds thread, a year ago, again before Covid..
Note I thought house price crash 2-3yrs and 1 yr gone..
Oh look, it's says Brexit again...

And since then we've had Covid, recession, gov support, China woes..
The original reasons haven't gone away, the new concerns just add to it..could lead to a major stock market crash, where HBs are not immune.

Read the company, sector and economic newsflow and form your own opinion



sikhthetech - 10 Sep 2019 - 11:44:35 - 4434 of 11718
"I will believe a housing crash when I see it ... which is NEVER"

I believe house price will crash over the next 2-3 years...
Leasehold scandal next for housebuilders, banks and govn..
International Financial turmoil.. DeutscheBank??..
International house price crash - Dubai/India etc
Brexit turmoil..

[ftir1] 26/8/2020 16:36

Not sure you'll get a response to that, its far too sensible!

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 16:28

gbh

"He/she must be near to some sort of breakdown due to past losses here"

What losses? I've been negative on the sector for 2 yrs..
and more recently all the way down from 170p when you bulls were saying buy.


Here's my 1st 2 posts, expressing concerns about Brexit and Help2Buy over 20months ago, before Covid ever appeared on the scene!!



sikhthetech - 16 Dec 2018 - 18:56:39 - 22230 of 27838
EI
""If we leave without a deal TW around 1.10 a share.""

That's optimistic..
I think leaving with no deal is just 1 challenge TW are facing... I think the consequences of new build leasehold scandal and the recent reports about 'crumbling' new builds has yet to be factored, let alone continuously falling house prices...


sikhthetech - 06 Dec 2018 - 13:58:46 - 21994 of 27838
Any state interference tends to back fire..

I think the 'Help to Buy' was a bad idea. I think it was a major factor in the 'leases on new builds' scandal...

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2020 16:15

I also filtered him recently, although prefer reading more cautious views
it became incessant.

[inaminute] 26/8/2020 16:14

Did the same. All for alternative opinions but the scale of repetition points to deeper problems.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/8/2020 16:14

I don't know that he has losses - to be fair, it was the sheer stupidity of the initial question and the response today. On top of yesterday. Never mind...

[gbh2] 26/8/2020 16:12

I have pleasant exchanges with sik over the years but had to Filter him/her due his/her rabid negativity re TW.
He/she must be near to some sort of breakdown due to past losses here to have been driven to what appears to be, ever growing manic depression.

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 16:08

Jug,

"Sikh, the younger generation in the main want a new built house"

A % figure of how many first time buyers buy New Build would be useful and an indicator of what might happen when H2B is changed to only include first time buyers, in 6 months time.


Is it 30%, 50%, 70%, 90%???
Otherwise when HBs come out of the other side of the weakness due to economic/brexit/govn support scheme, they will be hit by the H2B changes..

I would thought it was current homeowners upsizing, given the substantial premium on New Build.


Imastu, no, wasn't winding you up, you changed your mind and now want to stick your head in the sand.
It's your choice.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/8/2020 15:56

sikhthetech26 Aug '20 - 15:46 - 961 of 962 (Filtered)

I don't know if you're winding me up, with the obtuseness of that, but had enough.

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2020 15:53

Bought a small amount at 1.186, last sale at 1.235.

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 15:46

Imastu
"They both build houses"

Yes, they both build houses. FULL STOP.
So they don't sell the same product to the same population.

I'd thought the vast majority of buyers buy on the basis of where they wish to live and not move to a town based on where TW new build is.
It's different if both HB were in the same town and people had a choice.

The differential is only useful once the concerns are factored into the price. That, for me, is not yet..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 26/8/2020 15:20

Sikh - don't be a spanner every day, take a day off.

They both build houses, and all that that entails. Geography was not an issue for the previous umpteen years (take a look at the three year chart linked below - I can't do a nice one while the market is open as I'm too tight to pay for them) and suddenly 2 months ago they diverged.

Product and geography is not the reason - something else is. The only thing I can see is the additional rights issue shares; my suspicion is that the technicalities of those washing through is what has done for the TW share price since June. I'm not talking about the move down from 230-odd, I was only here from 140-odd.

My contention is that in due course, this differential will revert. Just one of many justifications for being long, before you repeat yesterday's stuff...




And it's not just PSN - 2 months against the other large builders:





Pretty sure it's a volume technicals thing.

[jugears] 26/8/2020 15:17

Martyn9, I think we may just get one.

[martyn9] 26/8/2020 15:10

A decent autumn statement might help.
Sit tight and wait imo.

[essentialinvestor] 26/8/2020 14:35

Little point future telling.

Atm the sector has been weak in a relatively strong wider equity market

and also appears to be hit on wider equity market weakness.

Need a trend change to make any headway.

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 14:13

Imastu

"Comparison against a competitor in the same business, selling the same product, to the same population"

PSN are in the same business, ie New Builds, but they are not selling the same product to the same population.

How many areas have PSN got developments in the same areas as TW???

[jugears] 26/8/2020 14:08

Sikh, the younger generation in the main want a new built house, unfortunately they don't see the benefits of buying an older property with land, solid internal walls & a bedroom you can actually but a bed in!

[jugears] 26/8/2020 14:02

Sikh,Its all down to who actually needs HTB & who doesn't it can not be gauged by people that have used it in the past as there is no clarity as to who actually needed it, there is also no evidence that it has actually helped anyone, If some thing is offered & looks like a freebie most people will take it whether they need it or not.I want to know when this recession is going to start, we are being quoted January delivery on some items & the building trade as rammed at the moment, I will be looking very closely at the next set of figures for output in July & August, hopefully it will dispel some of the doom & gloom.

[sikhthetech] 26/8/2020 13:48

Jug,

"If you have already bought a house once you shouldn't need help to buy anyway."

The policy change is the right thing to do.

Questions is What % of New Build buyers used H2B loans and were first time buyers?
I would have thought a lot of New Build buyers were upsizing, so H2B would no longer be available to them.

Anyone seen any figures anywhere?

[gbh2] 26/8/2020 09:38

oppss wrong thread :)

[jugears] 26/8/2020 09:26

If you dont sell how can you loose 50% ? In 40 years of buying share for the long term I have never sold on dips only purchased, if I needed the money I invest I would probably buy & sell but have made more money holding long term so if it's not broke why fix it, just because we are in uncertain times at the moment this wont last for ever,investors whether property or shares need to make money & will be drawn back at some point , the UK will need more houses in the future & there are not many companies left to build them, Imo we have not seen the peak in Tw share price yet, despite the current circumstances these have a long way to go up yet, so why would you sell if you don't need the money?