Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sux_2bu] 11/8/2020 16:00

40p is about all this is worth.

[sux_2bu] 11/8/2020 15:59

Tw will continue to melt away.Remember great stocks like rbs at a tenner, healthy lloyds, barcs, etc... tw going the same way this time with lots more dilution coming

[ftir1] 11/8/2020 15:19

Exactly, most of this BB is guilty of that!

[pander45] 11/8/2020 15:17

In that case give your keyboard a break.

[ftir1] 11/8/2020 15:13

Isn't that the point of these BB's

To express your insight and views.

No one cares if those views are accepted or rejected.

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 15:09

Why would you seek to persuade anyone?, that goes for bullish or bearish views.

A post on a Free bulletin board makes less difference than a fart in a hurricane to the share price of any MCX stock.

[pander45] 11/8/2020 15:05

Bellway update interesting, worth a read.

[ftir1] 11/8/2020 14:42

sikhthetech,

It's absolutely useless trying to convince the permabulls that this is going to be worth less moving forward, they've simply had it too good over recent years.

It was a one way bet. Unfortunately for them, that has changed, but it'll take them some time to fully understand what's happened.

STRONG SELL

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 14:01

Jug

"larger plots without planning can be upwards of £15k- 45k per acre & £120k plus with planning"

so £15k to £120k is 800%...which is what I mentioned in my earlier post...

At last, thank you for agreeing...
:-)


The point here is the price of the same plot of land with and without planning permission, regardless of location..

[jugears] 11/8/2020 13:49

Sikh I would say that local authorities & regional Hb's own considerably more land with planning than the main Hb's

[jugears] 11/8/2020 13:47

Ess - My policy is never to invest in pure construction companies, particularly now.

Sikh One of my plots is only big enough to build a 3 bed house on, I have valued this at £25k for the last 10 years(without planning & very unlikely being in a conservation area next to a Brooke, Its actually worth £60k now, larger plots without planning can be upwards of £15k- 45k per acre & £120k plus with planning, The general rule off thumb is I think £120k-150K per plot average excluding London. a large builder would be lucky to obtain green belt land for less than 15K per acre & don't know of any that would buy land that cheap as most landowners put an up lift clause in the contract & many land purchase prices are agreed subject to a minimal of outline planning permission which carries a premium to the price hence even relaxing planning is not going to flood the market with cheap land as the hb's would want to be sure of exactly what they was getting for their money even if it means paying more, Imo if they mange to obtain land at a 10% discount then they will have done extremely well.

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 13:30

Jug/gbh,

There's always a problem when any company or companies, in any sector controls the supply and, therefore, can influence the price..


Large HBs own majority of the land with planning permission.. They then value that land and release it when it is viable for them to do so....

With relaxed planning permission, larger HBs lose that control...


Gbh should know better than anyone as to what happened to SGI, who were selling their Investments and basing the investment valuation on a Cat price.. The SG catalogue price... Guess who decides the catalogue price??? Yes, SGI..

It's same with De Beers, who control the diamond supply or OPEC who supply 40% of oil...

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 13:24

JUG, do you have any industry insight on Henry Boot?.

The shares very difficult to trade in.

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 13:23

Jug

"I could expect an increase in valuation of anything up to 25%"

A 25% increase in land without planning seems reasonable....

Doesn't come anywhere near the 5000% increase mentioned in the last article I posted...


Investors will have more choice now...

[essentialinvestor] 11/8/2020 13:13

Bellway outlook may have read a little more cautious than some expected,
seemed OK to me.

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 13:13

to back up my point...

50x more expensive for land with planning permission!!


"There is also a massive price disparity between the price of land with planning permission and land without – sometimes the former can be 50 times the cost of the latter."

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 13:08

Jug,

Supply & Demand - economics..

Land without planning will be in demand, price goes up..

Lower demand for land with planning, prices go down...

I think land prices have been largely controlled by the large HBs as they have released land they hold when it suited them...

Relaxing planning rules means smaller builders get a look in...

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 12:52

Obviously land without planning will now be worth more than it was before .. but it won't be worth the same as land with planning is now.

The significant premium attached for the time/money (thousands and months/years) spent on obtaining the planning permission will largely disappear..

Currently, land with planning permission is usually several times more than without...sometime 7-8 times more...


One view:
"The most important factor in deciding land value is whether the land has planning permission or not. As a rough guide, a plot of land for sale with planning permission, on average, would be worth around eight to ten times the value of land for sale without approved planning. "

[gbh2] 11/8/2020 12:46

Jugs, you're wasting your time with a Loser!

[sikhthetech] 11/8/2020 12:45

Jug,

"as can be seen looking at land prices in my local area"

The govn announced the changes a few days ago and you've already seen land sell for much higher prices in your area...

That's quick!!!!

[jugears] 11/8/2020 12:42

Sikh any land that now has the potential to be built on is going to command a much higher price than without that potential & I do not think there is any worries that land with planning will suddenly be worth less, land prices have been increasing for the last 40 years that I know of & dont see that changing.

[jugears] 11/8/2020 12:37

Sikh if the government are relaxing planning that means cheap land will command a higher price as can be seen looking at land prices in my local area

[lendmeafiver] 11/8/2020 12:05

House prices are largely just a function of the availability of credit.