Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2020 21:31

Jug,

I look at company news, industry/economy/stock market news..
Brexit/furlough ending/mass unemployment/US Presidential election/China woes/Covid 2nd wave, are all uncertainties which could cause a stock market crash.


I see the problem with buying now is that I don't think the price takes into account the uncertainties within the economy/stockmarket over the next few months.

Yes, you can buy on the basis that the economic situation should be clearer by early next year and HB should recover to 150p-170p but for me, risk/reward isn't in reward's favour, 120p to 150p.


Then you face the HB specific problems as well:

The B2L has grown substantially over the last 20yrs due to favourable tax incentives, which don't exist anymore.

H2B comes to an end in 2023
New development laws on land without planning permission
Redress of onerous rents due to leasehold mis-selling
Property investors pulling out due to global recession.

There are still a lot of challenges facing HBs and I don't think they are factored into the price.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 20:49

Would not be too concerned about either the cyclical or Brexit issue,
although a no deal would be a temporary short shock to markets.


The longer term future of HTB, which has been the rainmaker for about every
HB stock (with the exception of Berkeley) is what I would consider the main possible threat to profitability.

[jugears] 24/8/2020 20:41

you're entitled to your opinion not to be concerned about a no deal brexit, it's your business and your money.

Absolutely true & I have successfully managed both for 40 years!, Brexit has been a concern in the results for the last 3 years, there is always something to worry about but there are still people working & still people buying houses, there was in the financial crisis & there will be during this. there are situations out of our hands but it wont stop me buying shares & investing in my company, life goes on & if need be I would go out & find new customer & new markets, I think it helps in life not to worry to much so long as my family have good health & a roof over there heads what else really matters? I invest petty cash in shares because I enjoy it,they go up & they go down that's investing, luckily I have only lost money on 1 or 2 shares & that's because they went bust, I could loose 500k over night if one or two of my customers went bust, luckily I have only ever lost £2k & that is because like my shares I only in vest or work for companies that have a good financial position & a strong future, With Tw I not only work for them but invest in them too, best of both worlds.

SIKH as you are the expert please tell me where you think the share price will be in 3/6 months time. in my forty years I have never quite found the bottom of shares (I think 30p in TW case) & I have never managed to sell any at the top, but never the less have made a very good return over the years, far better than the property I own & much less hasle.

I definitely wouldn't say that the markets haven't accounted for a no deal Brexit, Surely that is the main reason the markets have been held back over the last 3 years, the footsie prior to covid would have been 8000- 9000 points if it had not been for Brexit.

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2020 19:34

Jug,

The point is why buy now if you expect the stock market to crash and with it the share price
There are several uncertainties, of which 'no deal' Brexit is one, which could cause the stock market to crash. Others being mass unemployment, US Presidential Election, China Tensions etc


The stockmarkets haven't taken account of a possible 'no deal' brexit, they are preoccupied by Covid..

Even the HBs are concerned about a no deal Brexit:

This from TW:

"Whilst there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the short term from both the impact of COVID-19, particularly on employment, as well as the UK's exit from the European Union, demand has remained robust and our customers have continued to want to progress their home purchases."


"Although our Ordinary Dividend Policy has been the subject of prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios, including a 20% reduction in prices and a 30% reduction in volumes, and is payable through a normal downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a highly unusual set of circumstances. "




PSN:

From PSN results, which backs up my concerns:

" Potential medium term risks to demand associated with Covid-19, rising unemployment and Brexit remain"





If there was going to be a deal then the negotiations would have been further advanced than they actually are.

You're entitled to your opinion not to be concerned about a no deal brexit, it's your business and your money.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 19:15

A last minute paper-thin deal as a first stage is my best guessestimate fwiw.

[jugears] 24/8/2020 19:12

Is a deal likely? & was it ever. you have two sides, they want us to stay & will make it as hard as possible for us to leave & they wont be agreeing to our terms that would be admitting defeat,it would probably help if they could come to terms with the fact we want to leave there little club & that we are leaving! IMO a deal is very unlikely we are better to just leave when the time comes deal or not, pointless dragging it out even longer because that will just cause even more uncertainty & not what some sectors of the business world need right now.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2020 18:50

The market doesn't, nowhere near. UK exposed cyclicals would come off another
10/15% as a minimum imv.

[jugears] 24/8/2020 15:51

gbh2, I think most people & companies by now expect a no deal, I certainly do.

[gbh2] 24/8/2020 15:34

The whole market will panic if there not a deal, every sector will suffer because the unknowns and what ifs!

[disneydonald] 24/8/2020 14:29

I don’t expect we will make much progress until Wimps is able to close at or around the days high. Seems there is / are algos working through large sell orders as institutional investors churn their positions.

[halfpound] 24/8/2020 13:04

What a tedious t*at, trawling through posts to make a point, on & on, I've had enough:


sikhthetech 24 Aug '20 - 13:00 - 886 of 886 (Filtered)

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2020 13:00

Jug
"It will come"

I thought you said nothing is for sure

Nothing wrong with banter.. nobody knows what will actually happen, including you!!


"Do you have better things to do?"

That's a cop out when people get caught out...
;-)

[jugears] 24/8/2020 12:06

Lol It will come, Do you have better things to do?

[jugears] 24/8/2020 11:25

LOL the Manic depressive is back!,could be this or it could be that, Nothing is for sure so enjoy the ride.

[sikhthetech] 24/8/2020 10:59

gbh,

"I don't expect to see much action above 150p - 160p until spring 2021 & only then if we don't have yet another covid upset and or No Deal with the EU."

Good to see that you now recognise possible 2nd wave Covid & No Deal Brexit as potential challenges over the next few months.
I also see uncertainty from 'end of furlough', 'millions of unemployed', 'US Presidential Election', stock market crash, China tensions etc . A lot of uncertainty in events over the next few months.

The question is whether those challenges are factored into the share price I don't think they are.

[jugears] 24/8/2020 10:39

imastu, That is why I hold long term, you don't have to worry about selling or buying back, I have my full quota here now & will wait now until things pick up in the future, If they drop any purchases will just be a bonus, eventually things will turn for the better & anticipate at least doubling my money in the near future & the same with Lloyd's, not sure if this is relevant but on a couple of TW sites that I am on they have a waiting list until march if you want to buy a new house.

[gbh2] 24/8/2020 09:05

I'm at core holding level in both TW & LLOY, all my trading cash has been in Betting companies this last three months, plus a punt on a AIM company with a possible covid treatment.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/8/2020 08:49

It's an interesting one - I do have purchases at 116 and 118 - and a few hundred quid profit could be taken, holding the rest. But selling at these levels? Even though it still looks like it's being slapped down on any opportunity - this morning no exception?

Dunno - not done it yet, but every time it gets a kicking I keep saying I could have sold some and bought them back. A little wider range and I would happily do so - keeping the core holding.

[gbh2] 24/8/2020 08:45

I'm in much the same boat, no sense in selling at these leaves unless one is desperate for cash.

[jugears] 24/8/2020 08:31

gbh2 Nice & steady is good enough for me

[gbh2] 24/8/2020 08:26

G'moring Jugs, fwiw I don't expect to see much action above 150p - 160p until spring 2021 & only then if we don't have yet another covid upset and or No Deal with the EU.