Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 20/8/2020 12:44

ONS are not very reliable IMO but will agree to disagree on that.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 12:34

What's important are company/industry newsflow and official stats.

Everything else is speculation.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 12:31

Agree the press like to run with a narrative, however the ONS report
spells it out in black and white.

[gbh2] 20/8/2020 12:12

Ess. it's decent manufacturing jobs that need to return, we need factories.

Edit: I may even go back to work if Pharmaceutical Manufacturing returned in a big way :)

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 12:12

Imastu,

Agree that economic stats are always fluid.

However, I have never seen so many uncertain economic/political indicators come together in such a short space of time, uncertainty over the next 4 months.

I seen high unemployment, high inflation, house price crashes, stock market crashes, Swine flu/Ebola outbreaks, US Presidential Elections etc..


When have you seen anything similar to the following coming together in such a short space of time, ie over the next 4 months.


Uncertainty over Brexit
Furlough scheme supporting 9m people
Mortgage Payment hols taken nationally by around 2m people.
Property crash concerns resulting in Stamp Duty being relaxed
US Presidential Election where the Presidency seems unstable.
China-US trade wars.
China-India, Australia, Japan, US tensions in South China Sea
Pandemic causing global lockdowns
etc
etc

It's not all about UK economic stats.

This is different.

Even the HBs have said so... They have expressed concerns over unemployment, Brexit and Covid..


This from TW

"Whilst there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the short term from both the impact of COVID-19, particularly on employment, as well as the UK's exit from the European Union, demand has remained robust and our customers have continued to want to progress their home purchases."


"Although our Ordinary Dividend Policy has been the subject of prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios, including a 20% reduction in prices and a 30% reduction in volumes, and is payable through a normal downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a highly unusual set of circumstances. "





READ THE COMPANY AND INDUSTRY NEWSFLOW.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 11:58

gb, what I hoped to see was a significant increase in training budgets.

The measures enacted so far look very short term, which although understandable
does little for the longer term.

Hopefully some of that to come.

[gbh2] 20/8/2020 11:46

The problem is this Country changed some years ago when our so called Business Leaders decided that Employing staff on zero hour contracts and minimum provided far more profit than Training & employing full time staff!

Sadly the vast majority of job losses are in the service sector which is full of the worst jobs in the country for a reliable income on which folk can build a future.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 11:38

19,000 job losses announced alone on Tuesday,
there is no could about it, this is happening.

You can still make a buy case on TW. in that context,
but to pretend this is not happening is risable.

Look at the recent ONS data showing the largest drop in UK vacancies
since records began. 600,000 job vacancies have disappeared since January.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 10:00

imastu,

"sikh, what you should be concerned about is what happens when they stop 'punishing' TW"

PSN & TW's statements confirmed my concerns over HBs...

PSN medium term concerns over high unemployment, brexit...

I think stockmarkets are going to crash, in which case HBs, banks etc will crash as well...

Temporary Stamp Duty changes have helped but they are short term...


Note PSN has concerns over high unemployment..

That is a concern from a major HB. It's the opposite of what Jugears/gbh are claiming that those becoming unemployed are on zero hours and can't afford to buy a house anyway or that unemployment is not a concern.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/8/2020 17:10

sikh, what you should be concerned about is what happens when they stop 'punishing' TW. for raising some cash and let it revert to being in lock step with PSN - which it was (and should still be) until June:

You don't want to be short when this heads back up to 180-200-odd.



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



And for 2 months:



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[jugears] 19/8/2020 16:39

Martyn, yes I noticed PSN have lost a lot of yesterdays gains.

[martyn9] 19/8/2020 16:18

At least TW have led the way today and should finish blue!!

[sikhthetech] 19/8/2020 12:53

From PSN results, which backs up my concerns:

" Potential medium term risks to demand associated with Covid-19, rising unemployment and Brexit remain"







"William Ryder, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: 'Persimmon's decision to reinstate the dividend, even in a limited way, shows both confidence and caution.

'Confidence because the group thinks it can safely return cash to shareholders, caution because management clearly doesn't think the investment opportunities are especially compelling at the moment.'


Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: 'This year is increasingly looking to be a game of two halves for Persimmon, with the outlook rather brighter than the pandemic-hit first few months.

'The company had previously battened down the hatches in cancelling both the ordinary and special dividends, while becoming more selective on new land acquisitions."

[sikhthetech] 19/8/2020 12:47

There are concerns over unemployment, Brexit...
Short term gains because of relaxing Stamp Duty..

The economic downturn isn't like previous downturns where it was possible to judge an upturn...

[jugears] 19/8/2020 12:41

Imastu, Its just a matter of time & patiance! Lets see what happens when tw next report.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/8/2020 11:25

And that narrative is confirmed by PSN, yesterday. So why is TW. share price doing nothing?

Is it as simple (and pathetic) as the dividend?

[jugears] 19/8/2020 11:18

didn'tbuywell3, you are obviously not looking at the same rightmove as I am, there is definitely a lot of property coming to the market, Where I live houses are selling very quickly & we are talking a few weeks max, in several cases they have been sold before the sign has even gone up, I have been to several Tw site meetings in last week & they say they cant build houses fast enough as we are working around the clock I am not surprised, demand for new houses seems to be surpassing even the experts, lets see how long it takes for the share price to catch up

[ftir1] 19/8/2020 11:16

Jon12345678,

One way thinking will lose you money chap.

Ask the people who have already lost 50%

LOL

There are mass job loses on the way and a no deal Brexit.

[gambos49] 19/8/2020 11:16

These go lower than a pound and Vultures will be circling if they are not already with PSN now valued at pretty much double TW