Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/8/2020 15:49

So why do you think PSN isn't going there?

[ftir1] 20/8/2020 15:31

Covid-19 second wave, sharply rising unemployment and no deal Brexit.

It really isn't that difficult to work out where this is going.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 15:30

Some of the UK cyclicals began weakening a little on Tuesday.

Whether this signals something more significant...it may not do.

Expected some more significant give back on equities over the summer which
has not happened.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/8/2020 15:15

EI - yes noticed that. But give it time, there's over an hour to go...

:-)

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 15:14

Bought a small amount, not a usual sector for me to dabble in.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 20/8/2020 15:08

I follow two locations for property prices and they are both rising. Not sure about the rest of the country.

I think the stamp duty holiday will offset the lost house sales due to job losses.

Must of the job losses will fall on people most likely not in a position to buy a new build anyway.
I reckon the interest rates will remain extra low for longer than would have been the case without covid and with Brexit.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 14:47

ima,
on TW, it's not selling off with many other cyclicals today,
that might be worth noting, unless wider equity markets are going
to take a dive from here.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 14:42

"house prices wont drop for long"

It doesn't matter how long prices drop for, it'll make little difference to those who intend to live in their homes for a long time. However, it can have an affect if there is negative equity and people need to sell. It can stop new buyers if prices are dropping..


The simple point is why buy now if you believe there's going to be a stock market crash and the prices will be lower?


That same logic applies to buying anything, whether it be houses, shares, cars etc.

'Why buy now, wait for Black Friday'.

[jugears] 20/8/2020 14:35

imastu, All I know is that I am extremely busy supplying to Tw, The feed back from sites is that they can't build fast enough & that's why I am still her for the long run. Which ever way you look at it, house prices wont drop for long, despite the doomongers on here ,I'm afraid history does repeat itself & many times, in 10 years the average house price will be £100k more than now, because we just do not build enough & with this years production dip to add to the problem we will never meet demand or government targets & I suspect that even the ONS could back that up.

[gbh2] 20/8/2020 13:51

Its not news in the daily rags, if it's not Bad!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/8/2020 13:46

You think, I think, we think, they think. All I'm asking for is something specific to TW. Analysis, quantification, projections. All we get is broad brush economic doom - unquantified and not related to this company.

Carry on if you must, but I'll not bother, if you don't mind.

[jugears] 20/8/2020 13:40

Ess how much training do you need in the first place in hopitalty & shops etc, let us all not forget that many of those jobs will be coming back! & that these were industries struggling long before the words Brexit & Covid 19 were invented, These are industries that employ many part time staff (people still at school) Collage & uni Students & school leavers in general many will not be thinking about house purchase for many years to come, In other industries once momentum picks up, Travel Cruising etc staff will be re employed as will staff in the sectors that supply them, yes it will take time & may be a bumpy ride but I am very confident that Tw will survive & that my recent purchases will at least double in the future. Should a short term situation arrive & these become even better value, I will add more, but like so many times in the last few years IMO we have reached the bottom & things can only get better from here.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 13:37

EI

"However, we are facing a situation where a hell of a lot of people will need retraining, "

I think it will get worse because of Brexit.

It's human nature for people to migrate to where the jobs are, whether it's within the UK or abroad. It's always been the case.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 13:32

Imatsu

"Finally we agree"

My view on this hasn't changed. I've consistently said furlough scheme ends in Oct, Mortgage Pay hols end, Brexit etc...
Furlough scheme being wound down from Aug, so it will be from Aug that we'll see the job losses...

It's still early days...

The furlough scheme, mortgage payment hols, in recession are facts.

Any poster saying that property is selling in their local area so implying that it must be nationally is speculation.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 13:24

I'm mentioning it because gb's point about zero hrs contracts jobs is spot on.

And yes as the 6th largest global economy we will realistically always need people
from outside the UK to filll skills gaps. However, we are facing a situation where
a hell of a lot of people will need retraining, as some of those jobs are not coming back.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/8/2020 13:20

sikhthetech20 Aug '20 - 12:34 - 823 of 830
0 0 0
What's important are company/industry newsflow and official stats.

Everything else is speculation.



Finally we agree (although official stats are not very useful at times like this, other than stating the blindingly obvious. You say "They don't make it up" - you might be surprised at how badly/inconsistently the information is submitted by businesses, never mind what the ONS people do with the raw returns).

I'm bored with the economic stuff - we know there's a challenge, and if I want to speculate on it, I'll do it elsewhere. I would much rather stick to the specifics of TW. and its competitors - it's a TW. thread.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 13:18

Jug,

My point isn't whether any stats are right or wrong, neither of us know.
What I'm saying is that policies are based on official stats.

The official stats for deaths from CV have never been formally agreed. Different countries are/were using different ways to measure it.
I think Scotland were already using 'deaths within 28days of Covid+ test', which is what England are now using.

The point is govern policy is base on those official stats.

[jugears] 20/8/2020 13:08

We are talking 1 in every thousand or more here, I have never been contacted as a company in forty years & don't know of any that have & how many times have the Government & BOE got it wrong based on information from Where????, many many times!!! & lets take the number of official deaths from CV they haven't quite managed to work that one out yet have they, says it all really !

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2020 13:06

In healthcare alone we need thousands of nurses, occupational therapists,
physios, radiographers, pathologists...etc.

However, we have taken advantage of migrant labour in many of
these areas. Effectively other countries have paid for the training and
qualifications of such workers. The UK perhaps need a change of emphasis.

Just for clarification, I have no issue with overseas workers, just think
the UK could do more on training people for careers with high demand.

Perhaps this will force a rethink, at least to a degree.

[sikhthetech] 20/8/2020 12:56

Jugears

"ONS are not very reliable "

Gov/BoE/NHS policy uses the stats. It doesn't matter whether you think they are reliable or not, it is the official data on which policy is decided.

ONS data is based on information they receive from companies/organisations supplying the data. They don't make it up.

[jugears] 20/8/2020 12:56

The Problem with ONS is that they do not collect data from ever company or individual & information is only as good as the people supplying it.