Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[clarky5150] 25/6/2020 12:41

Crest a steal at yesterdays close. I think a 20% drop on half year earnings affected by the worldwide pandemic was massively overdone. There were obviously other factors at play including bad days for FTSE and the Dow. US want to clash heads with EU over tariffs and the various spikes in cases throughout US are all negative for the markets but all quantifiable. Yes the Covid has hung around far longer than expected and thus the recovery will take longer but If the fundamentals of the company are good they will see new highs in the future. As I say 20% drop = fill ya boots!

[sharetalk] 25/6/2020 08:47

Underpinned by a 165p broker valuation, £500m cash just raised and a national demand for more houses.

[gbh2] 25/6/2020 07:49

160p - 180p by the next dividend, totally academic where it goes between now and then.

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 22:47

Crest Nicholson impairs stock as price outlook worsens


"Crest Nicholson (CRST) has taken a £43m impairment charge against the value of its inventory, anticipating a fall in UK house prices."

[hodhasharon] 24/6/2020 22:15

80p target here.

[jugears] 24/6/2020 22:10

gbh2,I took today & tomorrow off.

[wfl1970] 24/6/2020 19:31

Not a great update from Crest today... It's not exactly surprising is it...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 24/6/2020 15:59

Yes, you're right, they're in deep trouble and it was a rescue fundraising.

Best go short on them then?



(Isn't the other thread for arguments?)

[gbh2] 24/6/2020 15:59

jon, as usual I'm commenting on my own position on Filtering and not on who I Filtered.

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 15:31

Imastu/disney donald,

Yes they had identified land opportunities.

But the point is they had already 'saved' £500m by not paying out dividends, so unexpected 'cash' currently in the bank.

They could have used that money for purchasing these land opportunities which they had already identified.


There are a lot of land and commercial property opportunities out there...

The fact they expect these opportunities to exist also suggests they are expecting property prices to fall this year, as the main cost of a property is the land itself...

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 15:27

Jonwig,

Yes it was minimal cost without delay but they intend to buy land which usually takes a few weeks to complete anyway.


That's the point, there are a queue of companies wanting to raise cash at this depressed time, WHILST THEY CAN - to ensure they have sufficient cash to get through the uncertain times ahead..




The max allowed from retail investors is EUR8m, which is the figure quoted in the rns. TW has 5.5k employees, avg cost per employee was only around £1500, so it's not surprising that the retail offer, with priority for employees and current investors, closed so quickly.




"From a corporate perspective, a non-preemptive placing offered only to institutional investors is expedient for a few reasons. Investor appetite can be gauged prior to the offer price being announced to the market, helping a company avoid the embarrassment of failing to raise the money targeted. While companies can raise funds equivalent of up to 20 per cent of their share capital without issuing a prospectus, fundraising from retail investors on that basis is capped at €8m. What’s more, the shorter time frame associated with a placing compared with a rights issue or open offer means that there is less need to secure underwriting of the transaction – which investment banks may be less willing to do given the market tumult. "

[disneydonald] 24/6/2020 15:26

Sikh, their update confirmed that they had spent (£136M), and agreed in principle to buy (6500 plots using similar price per plot of £57k, that makes around £368M) so they have already committed approximately £500M of land. So the money has already been spent !

[jonwig] 24/6/2020 15:19

sikh - OK, points taken.

The way they raised the cash was 'minimum cost'. No expensive prospectus with the associated delay. Investment banks keen to involve PIs via Primary Bid (some won't act without that condition thanks to FCA pressure). Speedy and cheap.

The placing was at a discounted price. Not many are at a premium to the then current price! (And don't tell me it's lower now, markets do stuff like that.)

There's a queue forming of companies trying to raise equity. The opportunist ones get in early, seeing discounted bargains ahead - cheap land sales here. The distressed ones try to catch up later.

TW.'s strength is based on a net-cash balance sheet. It's even more net cash now. And do you think HMGov is going to bash housebuilders in the forseeable future?

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 15:16

Let's see whether they do buy £500m worth of land over the next month or two... otherwise they should have done a RI or open offer so that all PIs could take part...

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 15:08

Jonwig,

The placing raised a similar amount to the dividend they would have paid for this year. Therefore, it wasn't huge in the scheme of things.

The placing was also at a discounted price. They could have organised a RI and given all PIs an opportunity to partake but they decided against it. It's not as if there was a urgency to buy £500m land within the next month?


If anything I think they raised the money for the same reason Crest borrowed from the govn, to raise cash to get through the uncertain period ahead.

[jonwig] 24/6/2020 14:55

gbh2, JUG - if you have them filtered, why even discuss the fact? If they don't exist, why do you need to say that they don't exist? They are happy to have your attention!

There we go - I've broken my cardinal rule, but won't again here.

More to the point, I invested in PSN after GFC but sold too early. The offer TW. last week seemed worth pursuing but the scaledown was a disappointment. I shall probably add in the near future.

[jugears] 24/6/2020 13:10

gbh- for some reason I didn't remove Sikh, but is now, I am to busy for negative poop, From where I am sitting & the feed back I am getting business is very brisk at the moment & could stay that way If we avoid taking a leaf out of sikh book & avoiding absorbing every small bit of negative news we read in the papers, It does really annoy me when companies try to blame covid 19 for there own miss management!

[gbh2] 24/6/2020 13:01

Hope you're pacing yourself Jugears, it's supposed to be the hottest day of the year :)

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 12:58

Jug

"Or are estates agents finding right move to expensive"

Absolutely, Rightmove are and have been too expensive hence the deep discounts. Several of the online only agents are much better value for money.


I'm not comparing CN to TW - every HB have their strong and weak points. It is sector news and HBs tend to move in line with each other..

[sikhthetech] 24/6/2020 12:55

Return of buyer demand props up house prices but expect financial hit from Covid to see property market decline by year-end, Zoopla says


"A surge in demand for homes since the English market reopened in mid-May and lower supply is expected to prop up prices over the summer, with falls expected at the end of the year when the economic impacts of Covid hit home. "


"Values will start falling more towards the end of 2020 and into 2021 when demand is set to weaken in response to a likely rise in unemployment - as the furlough scheme comes to an end - and as a result of fewer mortgages available for people with smaller deposits."

[gbh2] 24/6/2020 12:38

why would you remove the Filter, it's something I never do!

[jugears] 24/6/2020 12:30

Or are estates agents finding right move to expensive, everything has its day & please don not try and compare a company like cn to taylor wimpey one is well ran & one definitely isn't I will let you work that out