Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 16/6/2020 22:03

sikh, I have loaded up, I consider Tw to offer the best prospects long term out of all the HB's! that's just my opinion after considering all of the information I have to hand, Waiting is a fools game I would rather take my chance now & wait rather than miss the boat, at the moment there are know clear figures as to give any indication that thousand of people will loose there jobs when furlough ends & could be several months before we know for sure, but how often are prediction wright? past experience tells me that they seldom are, yes there will be some people who have lost jobs & others that are worried about there's & in return will hold off from purchases but there is a steady flow of people returning to work this is evident by the amount of traffic on the roads in the mornings. At least with furlough continuing until October this will help companies bring back staff as demand picks ups, Although I am against furlough i think it will enable many more jobs to be saved than lost, prior to Covid19 the uk economy was set to have a very good year & while it may take time I see demand coming back to pre lock down measures sooner rather than later but I am not going to lie awake at night worrying about it because I have a business to run & just have to get on with it like many people. I might have to work harder for a while to secure future orders but I don't need to worry now till March next year, My big concern is that we will need to carry a lot more stock as demand for some products are now pre sold until September & I am already six weeks behind on supplying some contracts, for the first time in nearly 60 years of trading I am running 2 shifts a day to meet very high demand & although I am usually good at predicted my markets this has definitely caught me unaware, Not only do I have to cope with unprecedented demand but now one of my few opposition companies wants to buy me out & whilst there offer is more than acceptable I would have to commit to working for them for the foreseeable future & that's the problem, I have never been employed by anyone all of my working life, I left school, went to college & took over the family business & that's all I know,I'm not sure I could work for someone else & I have a loyalty to my staff that have stuck with the company through thick & thin & this is what keeps me going, It would be very hard to see the company I have worked so hard for fail further down the line & what if my high standards were not kept up, that said I am not getting any younger & none of my kids or staff would want to take the company on & although the company is financially sound we always have anything from 200K-500k owed at anyone time & whist I am in the fortunate position of being able to carefully select the customer who I work for there is always the chance of one going down owing us a lot of money, So am going to have to think about this very carefully but as it is not the first time they have offered to buy me out I don't think they will be going away.Decisions Decisions!

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 20:20

let's face it gbh, IF you and Jugears were so sure of TW you'd not be trying to convince everyone else that they were on the wrong path... It's common phycological trait...




What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation?

All HBs are moving in sync.... I haven't posted recently on the other HB threads... You're really naive to think that the CRST share price followed a similar pattern to TW because of my posts on here...


So why don't you and Jugears load up and sit back and follow your own advice?

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 19:56

Face it sikh, IF you were so sure of your own path you'd not be trying to convince everyone else that they were on the wrong one, it's common phycological trait!

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 18:35

As stated... ;-)



"But economists say the full effect on employment will not be felt until wage support schemes end in October."

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 18:33

gbh
"I'm sure there must still be punters that think a bet on horse racing is much better than stock market investments"

I don't need to trade... I bet on horses for fun... Likewise, I would trade a share or form an opinion for fun based on my understanding of the economy, stockmarket, company and industry newsflow...

My view on the economy/stockmarket/house price crash is the same regardless of whether I hold the share or not..


Majority of my investments are outside of direct shares..

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 18:05

Folk debating with folk that debate with folk that bet on horses, need to lighten up a bit, some folk know exactly what they're doing.

[craftyale] 16/6/2020 17:50

People debating with someone who bets on horses about the stock market? The quality here is terrible. Value your time? Focus on your objectives, not cut and paste ramblings on an anonymous BB.

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 17:31

Yep, I'm sure there must still be punters that think a bet on horse racing is much better than stock market investments, in Leeds they used to gather at the back door of the Church looking for handouts :)

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 17:04

1carus, agree, where good companies fail, others will fill the gaps or the failed companies will be reborn...

The US Presidential election is later this year and Mr Trump also needs to ensure the US economy doesn't crash... after all he also depends on the economy for his own business interests...
Therefore, Mr Trump is also likely to want the stockmarket supported as much as possible..

There's only so much support the governments can do though... Remember previous occassions the govn tried but failed...

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 17:00

gbh2,
Thanks for your concern... I have a positive outlook on life...
Just had a 16-1 winner in the last at Royal Ascot... ;-)



I don't have a positive outlook for the stockmarket or economy over the next few months though... ;-)

[1carus] 16/6/2020 16:03

I am sure for some companies covid will be the end of them. It is sad but inevitable. However, this is likely just going to make gaps in market places that others will quickly fill. Might even being worth some of the companies going bankrupt then rising from the ashes if they can't refinance debt etc. One way or another, if there was a good solid business before covid, it will either survive or get replaced. Downturn will be short lived, Boris is desperate to light a bonfire under the UK economy.... and no not to burn it down. We need 1000s more working in care for example. Tbh I would like to see more qualified social care 'nursing' with higher paid rates in the industry.. this would dramatically relieve bed blocking on the nhs.. it's not rocket science. Better education and life opportunities will fuel continued growth across all sectors, I believe and hope that is what the mission is. He's got 4 years to pull the rabbit out of the hat, and for all of us I hope he does it. You need optimism.

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 15:42

Sikh, I hope someone has hidden all the Sharpe knives and medication, given your current state of mind, you need to man up and start looking for a bright side of life :)

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 15:04

Jug,

Look at all the HB shares, the moves are similar...

The crash after brexit vote, crash after lockdown had nothing to do with TW's dividend but everything to do with the potential economic impact and stockmarket moves...

Therefore, economic impact has a far greater influence on HB share price movement than a dividend. It's an important factor...



One of my red flags to potentially impact economic/stockmarkets was China-India border..

I see China crossed over the border and 3 soldiers have been killed...

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 14:58

omg
"Dont bother to answer, your filtered"

AGAIN!!! lol

You claimed to filter me recently, remember.... oops... lol


omg48 - 02 Jun 2020 - 14:44:09 - 27416 of 27594 Taylor Wimpey - TW.
sicktotheteeth filtered same old boring negativity

[omg48] 16/6/2020 14:29

Sicktotheteeth why dont you plague other threads as we are sicktodeath of you. Why bother posting negative opinions all the time. Dont you have something better to do or do you get sick pleasure in being a nuisance. Dont bother to answer, your filtered.

[jugears] 16/6/2020 14:14

Sik no 1.5 million is not that much to worry about & its likely to be temporary IMO & doubt there will be 1 millon mortgage repossessions either, Time will tell live for now not something that might or might not happen, I have said before it will have little impact on Tw share price anyway, This is a very heavily manipulated & traded stock if its going up it will go up if its coming down it will go down, This will trade now between 1.30-1.70 then probably 1.30-2-30 & then 1.70-2.30 how much profit & how many houses sold or how much dividend will have little effect that's just the way it is i'm afraid.

[wfl1970] 16/6/2020 13:44

Personally, I think we'll have to wait until early 2021 to find out...
Dont you?

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 13:37

Jug,

"What do you call major redundacies 2/3/4 million? IMO max 1.5million"

So you don't consider 1.5m redundancies, around 50% increase in unemployment as MAJOR increase in unemployment!!

I do...


What about mortgage repossessions??
Given there are around 2m mortgage payment holidays taken, I think there's likely to be around 1m mortgage repossessions reported early 2021 (given Payment hols end Oct and it usually takes 3 months of missed payments before any action)

What do you think?

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 13:27

Jugears, there's only you he's upsetting, life's too short too care about what others think about our investments, let it go and get on with enjoying your freedom to do as you please :)

[jugears] 16/6/2020 13:18

You still haven't told us how many homes TW sold during the lockdown....


Sikh I supply to houses further down the line, It could be 2-6 months after I have supplied my services to a house before its sale is completed, As I don't go to sites unless I am in a meeting then I don't get to ask, If they have unsold houses standing then the production line will slow accordingly & less plots will be called at a time, As yet none have been delayed or cancelled, In some cases the amount of plots due for delivery have increased, So I assume demand is quite high, As for the 4-6 weeks period that sites were shut I don't know the answer but anymore than none seems pretty good to me & when you say sold do you mean completed on sale or said yes I will buy because as you know buying property these days can take up to six months, so think it would be very difficult pin pointing an actual figure, I could probably work it out from our sales figures to site as they operate a fairly consistent production line once sites have started, If for example we dispatch ten houses is usually means ten have been completed or sold, We were slightly a head on our delivery's(usually 3-4 weeks)& were asked to continue deliveries straightaway once sites reopened, We have never been asked to scale back production or had any orders cancelled so I assume the shut down has not majorly impacted sales. I guess we will find out sooner or later but I am betting on my dividend cash being in the bank for Christmas.


What do you call major redundacies 2/3/4 million? IMO max 1.5million & this will reduce very quickly , as demand increases.

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 12:56

Jug,

"Hb's were only really closed for a month there was also plenty of life in the other industrial units around me"

Why did HBs furlough staff then?



"Give it 2 years & we will be back to full employment again IMO."

Why 2 yrs now, you said earlier there won't be any major redundancies...

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 12:53

The house opposite has been sold (at a ridiculous price) in under a month.

[jugears] 16/6/2020 12:47

tlobs2, exactly, but not everywhere was locked down, none of my construction sites closed & Hb's were only really closed for a month there was also plenty of life in the other industrial units around me, for the first 2 weeks of lock down roads were quit & so was my industrial estate but soon picked up after that & now all are working & must be busy as a lot have joined in with my late night & weekend work ethic, something I have never seen on this estate in all the years I have been here. I haven't heard of any major industry lay offs caused by cv apart from Rolls Royce & some in the none house building side of construction apart from bkg but that is what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket. Tp will blame cv but had far to many branches anyway & had already started to close branches anyway, Obviously short term leisure will be hit & as far as retail is concerned, that was finished anyway!Give it 2 years & we will be back to full employment again IMO.

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 12:45

Jug

"What have red flags got to do with anything ?"

I thought you knew everything!!!!

"5-10 million unemployed"

Yes I know you don't believe unemployment will rise, so it'll stay around 3m...Let's see...

Obviously, according to you, you've got double the workload than pre-Covid19, you know TW will be paying a dividend this year as they have cash to get rid of etc etc..

Why did HBs furlough staff then?

Why do you work 23hrs a day??? 1hr lunch break, obviously so you can speak to TW execs!!!!

You still haven't told us how many homes TW sold during the lockdown....