Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 16/6/2020 11:28

Sikh, By the end of October the economy could be picking up nicely & to me that is the way we seem to be heading, so there is no certainty to the numbers of permanent redundancies when furlough finishes, Any job loses will be recreated over time perhaps in a short space of time, what does appear to be clear is that people seem to want houses with gardens rather than flats which should be good for house builders, particularly those that have a broad spread & mix across the country, TW,Bdev,Psn etc, Not good for those companies building solely high end houses in London & the South the likes of BKG who are making large redundancies of staff clearly they don't always get it right!despite your continued downer on the economy & TW in particular, I on the other hand have never been more confident about the future, my order book now stretches to March next year & i'm very confident of a substantial return on my investments,for now I am not going to worry about what might or could happen I am just going to sit & see how thing pan out later in the year because know one really knows the outcome we could all sit & guess & can all get it wrong, What have red flags got to do with anything ? I am still not sure what you are trying to say ? 5-10 million unemployed, house prices will plummet, Tw will go bust ????explain in English as I am a bit thick & don't know what your are trying to tell me, Are you saying that I should sell TW shares? A simple yes or no will do.

[sikhthetech] 16/6/2020 10:17

Jug,

"those employment figures didnt look to bad to me & that was to the end of may."

Furlough is in place and the whole point of it was to prevent mass redundancies immediately.... so why would the employment figures change much for Q2 to end June.
I'm not expecting much change in the unemployment figures for June or July and not until Q3/Q4, when Furlough eases and finishes..

There are currently around 9m employees on furlough and around 2m people have taken mortgage repayment holidays.


Currently btl investors can't evict non-paying tenants either..


If you look at my red flags, 2 have already happened within the last few days...


Still early days...

[omg48] 16/6/2020 09:58

He's like an intelligent ftir :-)

[omg48] 16/6/2020 09:57

When share price is 160-170 again Sicktotheteeth will find another thread hopefully.

[tlobs2] 16/6/2020 09:44

The post Brexit price slump in TW returned my best returns for many years.

There will always be a need for bricks and morter ;-)

[gbh2] 16/6/2020 09:19

It's been my best income provider in recent years tlobs2. so I'm not giving up on it anytime soon :)

[jugears] 16/6/2020 09:17

Sikh those employment figures didnt look to bad to me & that was to the end of may.

[tlobs2] 16/6/2020 09:07

Good timing there gbh2 :-)


This has got 170p written all over it what do you think sikhthenotverytech

[jugears] 15/6/2020 15:33

I only traded in to test the market unfortunately I do not have time to trade my stance is still long term, Its early days to be worrying about figures, think I will see how the the 3rd quarter figures are first not that they will panic me anyway, I don't need to sell my shares I have enough income from my property & company to retire very comfortably, Shares are just a bit of fun, However it will probably go a long way to help my kids & grand childrens future.

[sikhthetech] 15/6/2020 15:15

Jug,

"what about all the jobs that have been created"

Yes, agree thousands of jobs were created, by supermarkets during lockdown and recently 'Test & Trace'. They are temporary jobs though. The real fallout will come when furlough eases and ends, so end of Oct.


" I think we have seen the worst buy far IMO I certainly expect June & july to make up the 20% & possibly more"

We have May GDP figures before June/July. Qtr is Apr-June, so I think we're already in recession.
If you're saying June/July will make up for the Apr contraction in Apr then I disagree as it would mean +20%++++ growth over those 2 months...
If you actually mean GDP for June/July will be lower than 20% contraction then I agree... I think we're likely to see < 10% contraction for each of May & June.


"I will never need to sell tw"

That's a stupid statement. Are you going to live forever???
But you already have sold some before, you said yourself that you made more from trading TW than you did working as a supplier from them.


The consequences from the economic fallout is still early days...

[gbh2] 15/6/2020 12:50

Picked up a few more, my ave below 145p now.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2020 20:31

Jug,

With regards unemployment rate of 8%, obviously there will be companies who didn't need furlough money but I think a very high number of employees on furlough will end up losing their jobs.

There were around 9m on furlough.
I think 3-4m unemployed by end of the year is not unrealistic.

Do you think 8% unemployed is not a problem for the housing market?

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2020 19:34

Jug

"like to bet June will only be down slightly & July IMO will be considerably up"

What's your definition of slightly?

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2020 19:33

This IS a prediction...

How would a Spanish Property crash effect TW Spanish operations?



Spain’s housing market – from the Costa del Sol to Costa Blanca – is heading for another crash, according to property experts.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2020 19:31

Jug,

"I don't believe in predictions"


But you do them all the time..

The April GDP figure of -20.4% if not a prediction... it follows March GDP rate falling by 5.8%..

The 'prediction' would be what the GDP rate would be for Q2 or the year...

[jugears] 14/6/2020 19:03

Not dire for one month & like to bet June will only be down slightly & July IMO will be considerably up,only time will tell, I don't believe in predictions lets see where we are in 6 months time & then look at the real figures not predicted, I think its going to be a very busy 6 months from where I am sitting. I would say my company is back to normal now but we are anything but normal, I haven experienced a surge in orders like this since before we voted to leave the Eu & I am not alone from the customers & suppliers I have spoken to. I think there is a very deceptive picture being painted a predicted picture by those that really should know better & then there is businessmen like me that just get on with what we do best, Making, Supplying & selling our goods, we don't make predictions we work on fact & the fact is things are not as bad as you are led to believe.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2020 18:43

Jug

"I anticipated at least a 50% Drop."



Really... I was thinking 14-15%...
In the 2008-9 global financial crash, GDP fell around 7-8%.


A fall of 20.4% is dire..


"I'm not sure why they are making a big thing about the predicted 8% unemployed "

That's a similar number to the number to the 2008-9 unemployment figure..
It took 5 yrs to recover from the 2008-9 recession...

What's more, it's early days at the moment... The worse is yet to come...

[jugears] 12/6/2020 09:23

Well I didnt think today's figures were bad for April, I anticipated at least a 50% Drop. So basically nearlt 80% of UK economy was firing on all 4 cylinders! I'm not sure why they are making a big thing about the predicted 8% unemployed ofcourse peoplecwill loose there jobs short term whilst companies re establish sales of course there will be those that have furloughed staff & realise that actually they have managed just fine without them & were probably never needed in the first place. Councils are the biggest culprits here having half a dozen people doing a one man job.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 12/6/2020 09:14

Missed it - been too busy on other things. Been out of these since 150 last time, was a great chance to get back in. Uuurgh.

[gbh2] 12/6/2020 09:01

Managed to pick up a few during the opening drop using yesterday's profits :)

[masterblaster] 11/6/2020 15:22

I am never that lucky