Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 01/7/2020 12:53

Tony Pidgley passed away last Friday, what a legend that man was.
A millionaire by 21 (when that was a lot of money) and multi millionaire by 25.
Meet him twice as a teenager when my Mum worked with his niece at a jewellers in Esher. He started Berkeley in Weybridge, now HQ'd in Cobham.

[baracuda2] 01/7/2020 12:40

Hi jug, I'm fully aware houses are selling, it's just all the ridiculous comments from idiots that we are all aware of stating the opposite. Thanks for your comments

[sunshine today] 01/7/2020 12:14

“With the average new-build home costing £314,000, first-time buyers using the scheme will save an average of £94,000, while those putting down a 20% deposit will need to save £18,000 less.”

This pack of cards will come crashing down

Average wage £27,000

Average new build should be 3 times that or £81,000

£314,000 is off the radar.

[sikhthetech] 01/7/2020 12:00

Jug
First Homes scheme for England.

" the way I have read it is that the government will be picking up the cost not the contractor."


The consultation ran from 7th Feb until 31st May.

The consultation stated the HB will pay a contribution.

As someone working within the industry and huge financial interest, didn't you read the consultation document and submit any comments..
Maybe the govn are replacing Help to Buy with this First Homes Scheme.


"how to deliver more of these homes through developer contributions"

[gbh2] 01/7/2020 11:40

There's always a summer hiatus in the stock market, low volume rarely results in an upward drift!

Thus the addage, Go away in May return in September.

[essentialinvestor] 01/7/2020 08:01

IVI - Invesco Income and Growth, has gearing of just over 3%.
Not a net cash position.

A "balanced" fund is unlikely to be fully invested in equities.

A cautious fund, for example RICA, will usually hold multiple asset classes.

[thebull8] 01/7/2020 00:12

Maybe "nobody is buying" was too sweeping a statement. What I meant was that there is less demand for stocks at present and big hedge funds are not buying in the same numbers Rathborne cautious, balanced and balanced plus funds holding 18.9%, 19.2% and 19.5% cash. Invesco growth funds holds 18.5% cash. Wavertons cautious fund holding 20% cash. Normal cash levels for these types of funds would be less than 10% Add on the high levels of unemployment (which will only increase when the furlough scheme ends) and shrinking number of hours being worked means smaller pension contributions and thus less investment opportunities for pension funds

[jugears] 01/7/2020 00:00

Barracuda I can a sure you houses are selling on the sites I am supplying to & new builds are still going a head Imo there will be know relevant or actual figures published of any worth for at least 3 to 6 months & only then we will start to see a clear picture of where the world is going. My local estate agents say they have had plenty of interest in houses recently, To many on here think the country is ruled by what happens in london, that may have been the case in the past but not anymore, the rest of the uk economy is far more important than London now.Even the late Mr pidgley could see that!

[jugears] 30/6/2020 23:49

I'm sure we will see & with that it's time for me to go home been another long day at the fun factory with many more to come over the next six months if I am to keep up with demand. I learnt a long time ago that stories sell papers & then you have the cronies at the good old bbc & ITV trying to paint the world a gloomy place when it's not all bad,note they only mention job losses & side step jobs created but then that wouldn't be bad news would it.

[baracuda2] 30/6/2020 23:43

Where do these prats come from

[baracuda2] 30/6/2020 23:41

So nobody is buying, where is your information from?

[baracuda2] 30/6/2020 23:38

Another idiot in the bb

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2020 23:30

Agree, a high degree of uncertainty on forecasts for any cyclical
2 years out, particularly given the current backdrop. Risks for the sector look
to the downside to me, let's see.

[p1966] 30/6/2020 23:25

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/economy-bank-of-england-haldane-vshaped-coronavirus-a4484281.htmlIn particular, note the massive changes in forecasts from one month to the next. Just as well people like this aren't steering the economy. Oh hang on, they are!

[p1966] 30/6/2020 23:11

https://www.gov.scot/policies/homeowners/help-to-buy/Help to Buy extended to March 2022 in Scotland.

[p1966] 30/6/2020 23:10

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/first-homes-pilot-to-be-part-of-next-affordable-homes-programme-67011The affordable homes pilot of 1,500 homes will not launch until 2021 and is currently in consultation. If fewer homebuyers will be helped, then is it a question of how the government intends current S.106 contributions will be applied, as opposed to the overall cost?

[thebull8] 30/6/2020 22:47

Feel free to share your insight into why you feel the share price will go up? This is the big one for me. Around October 2019 with all the issues of Brexit the share price was trading at 1.44. Today it's trading at 1.42. Can you honestly tell me that today, with no Brexit agreement, no end to the virus in sight, placings, write down, huge job losses - that the company looks as healthy as it did in October 2019?

[essentialinvestor] 30/6/2020 21:51

First Crest, now Redrow...

For 2021, Peel Hunt forecast Redrow PBT will be £226mln, down from £419mln, while 2022 estimates moves to £297mln from £430mln.

You can see how quickly pre tax estimates can be scaled back.

Redrow is a well run company, Crest arguably had some issues pre 2020.

[jugears] 30/6/2020 21:41

A portion of new houses, it doesn't give a figure so an estate with 500 houses may have a handful of cheap houses, the way I have read it is that the government will be picking up the cost not the contractor. As all new developments have to have affordable houses anyway I cant see this having much effect on the house builders as the cost will be spread through the whole development as happens now when contractors have to throw in the odd new roads,schools & doctors surgeries but keep clutching at those straws !

[sikhthetech] 30/6/2020 20:22

Boris talked about their FIRST HOMES SCHEME.

It looks like it's a replacement for Help to Buy and is likely to cost HBs money.



"With the average new-build home costing £314,000, first-time buyers using the scheme will save an average of £94,000, while those putting down a 20% deposit will need to save £18,000 less."

[jugears] 30/6/2020 19:46

I am not concerned about the short term bottom I am looking to the future & compared to RDW & BKG Tw are more evenly spread hence more chance of a quicker recovery. The days over overly inflated London prices have gone for good But we havent seen the peek else where by a long way yet, each to our own but I am happy invested here for the long run & nothing will change my stance her i'm afraid.

[sikhthetech] 30/6/2020 19:14

thebull8

"I think TW is a good share - all I’m saying is the bottom ain’t come yet"

exactly

[sikhthetech] 30/6/2020 19:12

Jug,

How can you say the quantity TW build is insignificant but it's a problem for other HBs. If anything international investors look to London for buying...

Yes, it's going to be a bumpy ride, TW can be affected in the same way as Redrow and every other HB.. They are not immune.

The point is I don't believe the bad news is in the current price.

Furloughing is coming to an end, job losses will increase substantially over the next few months....

The Help to Buy is also coming to an end next March. Has it been extended? Not yet, without it, it creates further uncertainty about a housing recovery.

[thebull8] 30/6/2020 19:10

Jeez one none-positive comment and you filter somebody! Touchy. Tells me your in deep with the share so least I know your status When I say there is nobody buying I am clearly referring to big buyers! This is confirmed in hedge funds reports stating they are holding more cash. With the high level of unemployment coming there will be less money for pension funds to invest. I think TW is a good share - all I'm saying is the bottom ain't come yet