Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 18/6/2020 07:15

145p better than I expected and the take up was extremely fast :))

[masurenguy] 18/6/2020 07:08

Placing price of 145p with gross proceeds from the Placing of circa £515m.

[jonwig] 18/6/2020 07:00

Some unbiased information (Sharecast yesterday pm):

Broker recs:

Strong buy ... 11
Buy .......... 1
Neutral ...... 4
Sell ......... 0
Strong sell... 0

Consensus Forecasts:

Revenue(£m) PBT(£m) eps div 2020-12-31 3,234.68 519.26 12.67p 5.90p 2021-12-31 3,740.97 621.56 15.45p 13.03p



Currently many of the companies raising equity are doing so from a posttion of strength, not survival. Eg, SGRO maybe the strongest propco in the UK which was issued at a 7% discount and oversubscribed.

TW. is being an opportunist: in a recession fims are forced to sell stuff (eg. land) cheap. Those wanting to buy get the best deals if they are cashed-up.
Anyway, we'll know soon enough; the figures above suggest it will be a decent success.

[ftir1] 18/6/2020 06:32

Jugears,

The length of your contradictory nonsense posts suggests you are desperate. You are all over the place with an inconsistant confused message. Sadly, you're just a obsessive TW. holder talking his book.

[jugears] 17/6/2020 23:52

With the government committed to the building of hs2 this alone is going to create work directly & indirectly for hundreds of thousands of workers it is the largest devolpment this country has ever seen, it doesn't only include a straight railway line from a to b, there are new stations, station refurbs , new branch lines, new housing & commercial developments, roads ,bypasses hotels pubs, leisure & retail etc etc, then there is all the workers, plant hire, tunnel boring equipment, lorries, mechanicts, builders,carpenters,joiners etc etc then there will be all the accommodation, catering the list of people & sectors required is endless, this will be the countries biggest employer for the next 10 years, there was never going to be enough man or women power to build this now may be with redeployment these positions will be filled,Untill a meeting with my local mp a few years ago I was very much against hs2 & didnt really comprehend the amount of people this is going to create work for * certainly thoughtbI would not be involved & thought this was just a big waste of money, having recently priced several stations ,new & refurb & a couple of hotels all connected to hs2,I now realise the importance of this. Imo this development & all that is attached will bring vast employment opportunities & help keep unemployment down for many years.Having seen what is involved across the whole country it is truly mind boggling to comprehend how this will ever come to fruition. Another late night at the office done time for home I think.

[ftir1] 17/6/2020 23:02

Most analysis's best case prediction is that we're going to have the worst recession in our life times, many others say its going to be a depression. Either way, it looks like TW. are moving quickly with their placing before the share price collapses completely. They know what's coming, so best shore up the balance sheet while they can. I wouldn't touch this placing with a barge pole, as their shares will be much cheaper in a few months from now, if anyone does actually want to buy some.

STRONG SELL

[jugears] 17/6/2020 22:22

WFL this may effect the housing market short term but think this has been expected this will probably become the norm but buyers will return even if they have to save a bit harder its just common sense really, I told all my kids when you buy a house pay the largest deposit you can, The less you owe the more you own, for most people they will just put of buying that new car or keeping there old one longer if they are determined to buy a house IMO.

[jugears] 17/6/2020 22:16

Sikh I do indeed remember I also remember Taylow Wimpey being near bankrupt,caused by being 1 billion in debt, I also remember how quickly Taylor Wimpey turned around there company, paying off there debt & returning to profit, This is a totally different company now & not going in to a recession in the same dire financial position as the financial crisis, Tw have got know staff currently on furlough & is repaying the money This to me clears the way to pay dividends again in the future. The economy is already picking up pace & who says it won't continue, IMO we have seen the bottom & are now in recovery mode. Until furlough & mortgage holidays end we wont know for sure how many people are unemployed, at the moment its all speculation. As I have said before I don't sit worrying about things that might happen,I assume from your posts that you think TW could collapse if there is a recession, I on the other hand think its very unlikely Tw has already stated there is less competition & this is my reasoning, There are far less house builders than there were pre the financial crisis hence the limited number of houses that have been built since, Several regional builders have collapsed this year which leaves Tw & the few other large HB's with a monopoly of the market, if the demand for new house fall all the large HB's can afford to cut supply,There isn't anyone to fill the cap, If this happens for a few years it will just increase demand & prices further down the line, IMO it is better to build fewer houses now & just tick over & then increase supply as demand picks up later at far higher margins, I would say that the financial crisis is as bad as it gets in this industry, If house prices fall, prospective home owners will be very quick to buy into this as there are millions of people anxious to still get on the property ladder.Even in the financial crisis there was still demand for houses, IMO the HB's have played a very clever game in the last 10 years by keeping supply at minimal levels & not meeting government targets, I do read your posts with interest & have no doubt you are very clever but I have survived many recession & house price falls & look where we are today house & land prices at the highest level they have been, every 10 years I have seen house prices dip & every time they recover, history repeats itself, Its know bad thing in my opinion & the perfect time to invest if you want big rewards & have patients & plenty of balls that's why there are so many property & investor millionaires now. I have no doubt that once covid & brexit is sorted we will see tw shares trading anything up to £5 with substantially increased profits in the future, if it takes 5 or ten years I can wait, Its the anticipation that makes investing fun for me & along the way I have plenty of spare cash to invest, My dad always said to me money makes money & I have never heard a truer statement. I never invested all those years ago to make a big return, I just liked TW as a company to work for & thought the risk was worth taking & as my average is still only around 60p it still a risk worth taking IMO & as that doesn't include the ones I have traded this year is my average is probably a lot less but haven't got time to sit & work it out not that it really matters anyway.

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 20:49

Jug,

"I am looking at a 35% increase in sales year on year this year, "

Yes, point is it means nothing in terms of the current climate - govn is still providing furlough support and mortgage providers still have mortgage payment hols ...

Remember HBs continued to be busy building homes before the financial crisis of 2007/9 ... Even though it was well published from 2007 onwards that a financial crisis was likely soon...

Remember all the ghost towns from 2009????.

[ducky fuzz] 17/6/2020 20:43

Also no sales tax / stamp duty & no commission. A no brainer really if you are looking to buy. DF

Hi xxxxxx

Thank you for your subscription to the Taylor Wimpey Plc Offer on 17/06/2020. The details are as follows:

Payment Reference: xxxx
Subscription Amount: £ xxxx
Delivery Fees: £0
Total: £ xxxx

Once the Offer has been completed and publicly announced, all investors will be notified of their allocation of shares. In the event of a scale back, we will refund any excess funds to you within 5 working days. Please check our FAQs for more information.

The allocation email will state the Trade Date and the Settlement Date, usually we settle T+5, e.g. 5 working days after the transaction date.

Please also allow additional time for your share dealing provider to process the settlement and transfer the new shares into your account. Time required for this process varies by provider we recommend you allow at least 48 hours, but it can be longer. This is out of our control but the transfer can be facilitated by following any specific instructions given in our allocation email, or any actions requested by your provider.

Best wishes,

The PrimaryBid Team

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 20:41

owen,

"shouldn't this be offered to shareholders through your brokers corporate actions portal"


No, it's non-preemptive issue.

The FCA relaxed the rules due to Covid19.

Note, the max allowed from retail investors is EUR8m, which is the figure quoted in the rns. TW has 5.5k employees, avg cost per employee was only around £1500, so it's not surprising that the retail offer, with priority for employees and current investors, closed so quickly.




"From a corporate perspective, a non-preemptive placing offered only to institutional investors is expedient for a few reasons. Investor appetite can be gauged prior to the offer price being announced to the market, helping a company avoid the embarrassment of failing to raise the money targeted. While companies can raise funds equivalent of up to 20 per cent of their share capital without issuing a prospectus, fundraising from retail investors on that basis is capped at €8m. What’s more, the shorter time frame associated with a placing compared with a rights issue or open offer means that there is less need to secure underwriting of the transaction – which investment banks may be less willing to do given the market tumult. "

[owencoffin] 17/6/2020 20:23

thanks sikhthetech. shouldn't this be offered to shareholders through your brokers corporate actions portal. rather than having sign upto a another website that gbh2 says is now shut anyway. seems a bit of a rushed job to me.

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 20:18

Owen,

There are 2 offers, a Retail Offer and a Placing.

The Retail offer is available to everyone, priority is existing employees and holders and has max sub of Eur8m.

[jugears] 17/6/2020 20:18

Sikh exactly 2-3 years down the line that's how far I look, Any short term & IMO it will be short term uncertainty provides a better buying opportunity, Short term these could go back to a pound or even 30p as nothing surprises me theses days,
Just to clarify my order book is at record levels & has increased since the start of lock down, I am looking at a 35% increase in sales year on year this year, Also to make this quite clear my order book for Tw Is the same now as pre-lockdown, I know I have explained this before but my goods go into houses months before they are completed, sometimes we only deliver to a site every 3-6 months so any slow down in orders may not become apparent for a while yet ,but just because there may have been a lull in sales as yet I have not had any orders or delivery dates cancelled or delayed & are in the process of negotiating new sites. I can not explain why my order book is so full at this current time but not complaining.I have never said that the current situation wont have an effect on HB's we may not get back to current trading levels for years then again it might be next year, there is just know certainty but long term there is a massive housing shortage & this is what TW can see see very clearly as do I & that's why I am here for the long run as for 1.35 I think in this barmy world I might wait & see if I can pick some up a bit lower ,after all Life is a gamble & all that!

[gbh2] 17/6/2020 20:08

Not now, it was fully subscribed quite quickly, check the website, it's closed.

Edit: Check difference

[owencoffin] 17/6/2020 20:06

is this retail offer open to anybody. is a retail offer different to a rights offer by being open to all?

[gbh2] 17/6/2020 20:01

Jugs, I suspect it's going to come in around 8 to 10% lower. 135 to 143p but I'd hope for the share price to move towards the dump price so I can pick up a few more, just a case of where to get the damned cash from, seeing as I'm in the middle of this with WMH.

[bountyhunter] 17/6/2020 19:38

Put in for a few, looks like a good recovery play, my guess is 130p

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 19:23

Toffeeman,

"I predict 135"

I think 130-135p, 10%-15% discount.

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 19:21

Jug
"What is your problem?"

I don't see consistency between what you say as a supplier to TW and TW's statements.

Either you misunderstand how the economic uncertainty will effect the property market over the next 6-12 months, or going by TW's statement, they and I do?

[toffeeman] 17/6/2020 19:20

I predict 135

[sikhthetech] 17/6/2020 19:11

What TW are doing is exactly what every property investor, including myself, is? Look for opportunities if they can get a good deal. They are looking at Land opportunities for the future, which is a far cry from property in the current climate.

The point is they are not expecting a 'V' shape recovery ...
TW are clearly planning for 2-3 yrs down the line, which is the right thing to do.


Their comments on economic uncertainty around Brexit and Covid is exactly the concerns raised and dismissed on here. Economic concerns have a far greater impact on HBs than short term resumption after a lockdown.
I don't think economic uncertainty is reflected in the share price yet.

Still early days.

Read the company/sector newsflow. Read the economic newsflow.