Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 11/6/2020 15:12

Some of us on 24% profit today :))

Edit: make that 27%

[masterblaster] 11/6/2020 13:48

Its better to exit with small profits and buy back in.imo its a traders market atm.and no i don't do any extended trading with money i don't have or can afford to lose.

[masterblaster] 11/6/2020 13:43

My £1.70 exit will have to wait. But by trading i have increased by holding in 2 months by about 20%.I have seen my selling target get further away a few times before in the 2 months. Each drop has reversed and risen above my target.However i didn't expect to see sub £1.50 again

[baracuda2] 11/6/2020 12:20

Back in, saving some cash for later

[sikhthetech] 11/6/2020 11:57

It's not just USA is in a turmoil... So are rest of the world...

It's early days..


There's lots of red flags which could impact stock markets/economy...

UK Covid deaths over 40k, still high infections per week, R number still near 1...
Recent rioting/demonstrations likely to lead to surge in new infections.. incubation period is 2 weeks, so it'll be a fortnight before we know..

US Covid deaths over 115k and 2m infections...

Economy supported by Furloughing, which will end over the next 6 months. Millions could be out of work. Possibly 3m out of work

US unemployment figure may yet surge if there's a 2nd lockdown..

Possible no deal brexit..

Huge borrowings built up by governments to support the economies.

Furlough supporting around 9m staff, so expecting huge numbers of redundancies over the next 5 months.

Mortgage payment holidays taken by around 2m people... Those payment holidays due to come to an end in Oct..

Trump - US Presidential Election later this year - uncertainty over who will win...

US-China - Trade wars... likely to impact any recovery.

China-Taiwan tension - increased military presence nr Taiwan is likely to result in increased US military presence in the area.

China-HK tension - likely to damage HK economy..

China-India tension - increased military presence on border between India and China, 2 nuclear powers...

Boris' dithering over Covid19. Likely to result in loss of confidence in Govn plans and increasingly people ignoring any future lockdown.

Dubai-India-China property market on the edge... If Dubai/Indian/Chinese property market collapses then this could ripple out to other countries...


That's a lot of uncertainty over the next few months...

In my 30+ years of investing, I've never seen so much uncertainty facing the world economy/stock markets within a space of only a few months.

[craftyale] 11/6/2020 08:17

Patience is an issue for me! Lots of red today.

[craftyale] 11/6/2020 08:10

Sorry chaps I just cant help myself. Triggered out 162-4 on June 9th. Back in with two more trades at 151-2 at the open this morn. GLA.

[craftyale] 11/6/2020 07:54

Volatility equals opportunity.

[m4rtinu] 11/6/2020 07:41

And finally, FED says interest rates will stay very low for at least next 2 years

[the juggler] 10/6/2020 21:48

I was on site today (not TW but a competitor). Workers on site = 71% of number prior to CV19 and in last 8 working days there have been 9 sales - all detached houses!

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2020 20:41

Jug,

"I assume april completions were a carry on from march,most sites I visited in may had a few final finishes,"

That's the point, all HBs would have completed unfinished homes 1st. The 3 weeks from reopening sites to 31st May, they only completed 184 (last yr they completed avg 552 in a 3 week period).


Therefore they are taking longer to complete, which will add to costs.

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2020 20:32

tlobs2

"You are forgetting or ignoring the chronic housing shortage. "

No I'm not. There's been a so called 'chronic' housing shortage for years, decades...

You also need buyers to be able to afford to buy.

I've invested for over 30yrs and this is the worst set of circumstances coming together that I've ever seen in terms of near term prospects for the economy, which will have a knock on effect on just about every sector.

[jugears] 10/6/2020 13:59

Sikh I assume april completions were a carry on from march,most sites I visited in may had a few final finishes, with most work being done a t ground level, building houses is a production line, when it runs smoothly houses are being complete as others are started & all the way down the production line they will be nearer to completion, There was a big push before lock down to complete houses that were built but no hurry to start building others therefore if they cam.back in may the production line will have started from scratch so would take six weeks to he nearing completion so dont expect much this month either.

[tlobs2] 10/6/2020 13:30

You are forgetting or ignoring the chronic housing shortage. That's what will continue to drive this company forward over the next five to ten years ;-)

You need to consider what has happened in the UK housing market over the years and how it has never failed to deliver rewards for those who invest in properties.

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2020 13:15

tlobs2,
"Sikh, sorry to spoil your day. Property sales in most of England have swiftly rebounded to the same levels they were just before the lockdown"

That was expected. Haven't you seen the thousands of people in parks, seaside believing that there's absolutely nothing wrong. Just like you do. ;-)


I did mention Oct onwards and when I looked today it's still June. Furlough of 9million people is still in place.
Mortgage payment hols come to an end in Oct, btl investors can't evict non-payers and so can't sell their properties before end of Oct.




UK could be the hardest hit

"The UK is likely to be the hardest-hit by Covid-19 among major economies, a leading agency has warned."

[sikhthetech] 10/6/2020 12:32

Jug,

"Probably none if they were shut but certainly seem to be making up for lost time"

That's the point. Sites reopened 2nd week of May, yet there was a lack of completions by end of May. Given the number of completions in the Apr update, I would have expected a significant higher number.


It's taking longer to complete homes, which is also mentioned in the Bellway article. With all staff now working and as you say, additional staff taken on, costs will go up

There's still no indication of how many homes were sold during lockdown



Bellway:
"Construction activity has restarted on about 230 sites south of the border, although productivity is reduced, and work is still primarily limited to those homes which are nearing completion. "

[tlobs2] 10/6/2020 10:55

Sikh, sorry to spoil your day .....

Property sales in most of England have swiftly rebounded to the same levels they were just before the lockdown, although London lags behind the rest of the country and markets in Scotland and Wales remain closed, according to website Zoopla.

Pent-up demand has also meant firmer prices, said Zoopla, with the average asking price of sales agreed in the last week 6% higher than the same week in June last year. Its figures are in sharp contrast with those from Nationwide, which last week said house prices across the UK were falling at the fastest rate since the financial crisis.

“Lower asking prices for homes sold over the lockdown period may drag down indices over May, but this new data suggests house price growth is set to remain positive in the next two months,” said Zoopla research director, Richard Donnell.

[gbh2] 10/6/2020 10:23

The story now is about how far the share price might fall before a complete recovery.
i.e. How cheap are we going to be able buy these between now and then.

Because imo the recovery is inevitable and TW will be a high dividend payer which means the shares will be so attractive that this the share price will rise well above current levels.

[p1966] 10/6/2020 09:38

On the housing market, more generally: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/10/property-sales-recover-to-pre-lockdown-levels-across-england-says-zoopla