Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 03/6/2020 12:12

A lot of people from HK emigrated around 1997 when the colony was handed back to China.

I know some went to Canada, some to UK.

I think some HK people have a right to come to UK, if they have a British National Overseas Passport. I know some friends who do.
I don't think Boris Johnson is giving them any special rights to enter UK, is he?

I suspect the recent news in US might persuade some people that US is not a place for them.

[gbh2] 03/6/2020 11:04

imo those that want to get out will move to the USA where opportunities abound for those with something to offer.

[disneydonald] 03/6/2020 09:33

Boris reportedly offering special residency rights for Hong Kong citizens, should provide a boost to off plan sales in the first instance for Central London and up market areas like Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Wigan etc. If it actually transpires that hundreds of thousands actually arrive in the UK, then the UK economy will at a stroke accelerate. Seems somewhat ironic given that many who voted for Boris had the opposite in mind.

[omg48] 03/6/2020 09:17

UnHinged.
3m coming to UK? I'm investing in Chinese Food Wholesaler then :-)

[unhinged] 03/6/2020 08:43

The prospect of 3m Hong Kong residents coming to the U.K. has gotta be good news for house prices and demand for new homes

[jugears] 03/6/2020 08:35

Know company is going to go from a standing start to full capacity straight away ,it doesn't help when we have the papers & so called experts telling us how bad things could be & yet house prices havent fallen as far as expected with a healthy return of house hunters as well, Also a lot off companies like my self have increased capacity & profits, but off course if we are outside the M25 that doesn't count for anything !

[m4rtinu] 03/6/2020 07:44

Unfortunately, I have heard of people being laid off, now some businesses have reopened. And furlough payments reducing. They have got used to running skeleton staff and think those staff can manage. (Not building firms). Let's hope they have misjudged and quickly re-employ.

[jugears] 02/6/2020 17:47

companies aren't receiving Furlough money the staff are, During that time companies are either shut or working with skeleton staff & probably not even covering there premises overheads which has probably had to come out of money that was already in the kitty prior to lock down. Any company starting back up yesterday that doesn't have good cash reserves will need to wait two months to build money back up again before being able to pay all staff & this will take several months in my opinion. Business is a strange old thing because you always have two months of income coming in that is never fully yours until you close down. Many companies will have been receiving final payments over the last 2 months if they have been shut down albeit probably very little this month so will have to wait 2 months to get back into a reasonable financial state but this could prove difficult for some companies, I only turned over £3000 in April, Normally we are 50-80k per month, This is not a problem as we have huge cash reserves but it takes many months to recover from that, I was just lucky that we managed to continue manufacturing so have had a bumper month in May/June. I think that by October most firms will be back up to capacity. As for payment holidays it isn't costing anything only your mortgage life increasing by 3-6 months, Whilst I would be alarmed at that,I am not sure someone with a 40 year mortgage will be to bothered! Lets just hope all this additional money is spent in the UK & who knows this may be come the norm in future for staving off recessions lol.

[sikhthetech] 02/6/2020 17:02

Jug,
"by extending furlough until October this will allow companies to bring back staf as funds are available to pay them"

Staff are furloughed so companies are already receiving money for them, albeit 80% and not for other overheads.

A lot of companies have continued to operate on line...


"As for mortgage payment holidays I wonder how many people took them that didn't need them"

That's exactly my point when you said diy, online sales were booming. How many took out mortgage/credit card payment hols just to splash out, knowing full that it was easier to get the payment hol now than in normal circumstances when they would be asked dozens of questions with affordability checks.


Oct onwards will be a critical time.

[jugears] 02/6/2020 16:59

gbh2, A lot of people furloughed or working from home say they are financially far better off, longer hours at home, know petrol or daily snacks/coffee cost, a friend of mine is £15 a day better off! & still on full wages working from home.

[gbh2] 02/6/2020 16:47

I suspect there's far more at in the Boardrooms milking the system than there is on the building sites.

[sikhthetech] 02/6/2020 15:37

Jug,

"If things are so bad then you would expect there to be a lot of heavy discounting but there isn't"

You make some good points. I think they are short term points..

So on the flip side, if things were so great then why have the govn extended the furlough scheme until October? Why not end it when the current scheme ends next month?

Why have the mortgage companies extended mortgage payment holidays by a further 3 months to Oct?


There's still around 15,000-20,000 positive Covid19 tests reported every week. There are still around 1,200-1,500 deaths reported every week...


Maybe things aren't as good as the govn portrays?


"may be costing the government money but it has been a brilliant game plan"

It wasn't a UK thing, furlough, mortgage payment hols are in many countries....


Australia where they also had mortgage payment holidays:

"While the worst of the lockdowns may be over, the effects on real estate are only just beginning, with worse forecast to come as six-month mortgage repayment holidays end."

[jugears] 02/6/2020 15:18

sikh,All assumptions though, we are all very good at assuming the worst, but not very good at assuming the best!If things are so bad then you would expect there to be a lot of heavy discounting but there isn't only perhaps a few retailers, being able to furlough staff may be costing the government money but it has been a brilliant game plan, It has allowed companies to continue trading or survive until the up turn. some sectors will loose jobs, but others will create jobs,as many already have. IMO the unemployment rate will be a lot less than expected.At the moment I am seeing healthy orders coming through & so far all of my customers have paid accounts on time, If & when that changes I might start to worry. Unlike previous recessions where markets see a gradual decline, prior to Covid19 the economy was doing well & we were looking at this year being exceptionally good something echoed by many of my customers & suppliers & still might be, I don't think demand has gone away I think has been delayed slightly, Even in a recession houses get built, The country was already years behind meeting demand so loosing three months production is only going to exasperate the problem & it wouldn't surprise me to see at least a 10% increase in house prices over the next year or two, My advise to any potential buyer now would be if house prices fall & you can buy at anything up to 10% lower than pre covid prices then buy Because I think that is all they will go to & for a very short period, I have probably said this many times but in 20 years from now the average house price will be double what it is now, because this country has know chance of ever meeting demand for new houses.

[omg48] 02/6/2020 14:45

He has 26000 posts. Likes to listen to himself methinks.

[omg48] 02/6/2020 14:44

sicktotheteeth filtered same old boring negativity

[sikhthetech] 02/6/2020 14:22

Jug
"It depends on how badly this has really effected the economy & future demand"

absolutely..


In terms of stores booming..

There are millions of furlough staff sitting at home getting paid....
They will obviously look at spending some of that 'free' money, especially if they believe their jobs are safe...

You have millions of people who have taken mortgage/credit card payment holidays...Obviously they would be looking at spending that money... How many of those people are actually going to be able to afford the extra payment required when the payment hols end? How many know that they are going to be made redundant or lose their homes so might as well 'spend whilst you can' knowing that they can't pay it back...

The problems are just being pushed down the road...

[jugears] 02/6/2020 14:05

sikh, It depends on how badly this has really effected the economy & future demand, if you read the press then we haven't got a hope. If you talk to business's & I have spoken to all but a handful of my suppliers in the last 2 weeks & all say things are slowly picking up nicely with more & more of there staff being de-furloughed daily, All of my Hb's are now procuring orders from us & this is increasing daily. Within 12-18 months the country will be back to pre Covid levels, By which time I will have hoovered up all the cheap shares & be moving on to my next Business & investment chapter in my life, There is a positive in every negative, I am getting fed up of what could or might happen I just want to see facts & from what I see its not all bad, For example, DIY sales booming, online sales booming, Food & alcohol sales booming, Garden centre booming, small corner shops booming, & when shops, pubs,restaurants are open again they two will be booming as will every UK tourist attraction meaning money will be spent here & not Abroad, I reckon that the UK government will make double the amount of money they have paid out in the last few months, in taxes over the the next few years, what actually seemed like bonkers at the time could be the best thing this government has done in its life time & will certainly secure Conservative leadership for many years to come.

[tlobs2] 02/6/2020 13:55

And the price continues to go up.

It looks like the shorters are getting a right royal shafting here. And rightfully so.

Miserable doom mongering gets.

:-)

[sikhthetech] 02/6/2020 12:55

masterblaster,

"government incentives"

The housing market is currently being supported by govn... furlough, mortgage payment hols... As the govn support declines and people can no longer take mortgage payment hols that's when the real impact will become clear.

Currently mortgage providers can't repossess a property, Btl investors can't evict...

Mortgage repossessions are likely to increase substantially once the payment hols ends...

[jugears] 02/6/2020 12:44

Demand for home rentals out striping supply.

[doyden] 02/6/2020 12:40

I hope you're right. I'm more interested in the resumption of dividends at the moment to be honest.I've held since 2008 and with no plans to sell any time soon, I'm only concerned with ongoing income right now.

[masterblaster] 02/6/2020 12:00

As house hunting increases, low interest rates, house prices lower but only a small impact on builders, government incentives, imo we will see the S.P.around £1.75 by end of June and circa £2 end of July