Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[owencoffin] 10/6/2020 09:16

hxxps://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2020/06/bellway-sees-sales-squeeze-as-more-sites-open/

[craftyale] 10/6/2020 04:38

A couple of days remain of the trading week. Also gains from RDW triggered. Of course I would like to get back in at lower prices, see how the FED meeting affects things over the coming days. GLA.

[craftyale] 10/6/2020 04:33

Two of my stops triggered yesterday. Core holding remains.

[jugears] 10/6/2020 00:17

Probably none if they were shut but certainly seem to be making up for lost time
A few months doesn't really concern me I'm more interested in end of year figures, The houses will still get built eventually so I dont see where the problem is. If they finish the year with a small profit I can live with that it certainly wont change my long term view on Tw. IMO the share price hasn't reach its peak here by a long way yet. I am still at work now, I have spoken to several suppliers today all are busier than they expected, I drove round london & Surrey yesterday & there is building work going on everywhere I rang a local well known builders merchants yesterday I couldn't get a delivery for 6 weeks they are that busy, several of my hb customers have ramped production up now & are talking about working later & weekends,why would they do this if demand wasn't there. What I find interesting is that we are only told about job losses but no mention of the 100s of thousands that have been created & whilst these may be temporary for the next 6 months or so , you can justsee the headlines in 12 /18 months time when companies like airlines ,JCB,Rolls Royce etc etc are re hiring staff to meet demand. Because demand will come back & with the reluctance to travel many people will stay in the uk which means money going back into our economy which can only be good news.If house prices fall demand picks up & in return house prices go back up it's a vicious circle I'm afraid. It's worth remembering when house prices fall so do labour & material cost,but I think any down turn in the housing market now is just going to create greater demand in the future,the country was already incapable of achieving demand & to make up for a loss of 2 months production IMO is going to take a very long time, even if there is a down turn in demand will there now be enough houses to be able to meet what demand there is ? Because current production level will still lag behind whilst there is still restrictions in place which could mean forward stocks of new house could now be at an all time low anyway. Time will tell.

[sikhthetech] 09/6/2020 23:12

Jug

"It depends how you interpret the 40%, My understanding is that this is on an approximate 2 moths basis"

No it's not, according to the update, it's 40% for 22 weeks, from beginning of the year.


The 6 weeks between their 23rd Apr and 5th June updates they only completed 184 homes, compared to 1408 last year - down a massive 87% - no wonder they and you are working twice as hard!!



April Update - for 16 weeks, from beginning of year - 2271, down 373 or down 14%

"Total Group completions (including joint ventures) in the 16 weeks to 19 April 2020 were 2,271 ( 2019 week 16: 2,644), reflecting the impact of our site closures."







From 5th June update - for 22 weeks, from beg of year, 2455, down 1597 or down 40%


"Total Group completions (including joint ventures) in the 22 weeks to 31 May were 2,455 (2019 equivalent period: 4,052), reflecting the impact of site closures."





and there's no figure on the number sold in the update from last week.

[wfl1970] 09/6/2020 22:38

"The governments never learn by there mistakes"

Because governments change Jugears...

[m4rtinu] 09/6/2020 21:19

Jugs - some nice ideas about affordable housing for the young.

[jugears] 09/6/2020 21:11

Sikhthetech- It depends how you interpret the 40%, My understanding is that this is on an approximate 2 moths basis, there fore if it was a yearly basis they would only be down 6.6%- 7.5% which doesn't seem bad to me.

As for Furlough I find this a very sore subject, Why did so many companies furlough staff when they didn't need to? I have a very good accountant & several times he pestered me to furlough staff, I told him I had enough money to pay wages for the next 12 months, Yes but that is your money he replied, Why should you use your own money when the Government are willing to pay. The government like always panicked & brought in furlough without any real thought or plan as to who needed it & who didn't,Instead they gave it to everyone,The governments never learn by there mistakes, Cutting interest in the financial crisis had very little effect & neither has cutting them for Cv,It will now be impossible to raise them in the next 3 years or even 10,we should have stuck between 2.5% & 4% a much better rate to balance the economy IMO. I was never a fan of help to buy, I wonder home many people have taken advantage of that? but here now that it could be around indefinitely. The government really needs to get a grip with low cost housing, You can build a house for 100k or less its the land that costs so much, I have never understood why the government don't allow building on land that wouldn't normally be built on, they could stipulate to the land owner that permission would be granted but the land per acre would have a price cap on it the average acre without planning being 7k to 10+K with planing 150k+ so anything between 20-30k for the land owner would be a bonus & allow truly affordable homes for first time buyers, obviously these would need to be designated low cost areas where future price increases could be capped ? Having estates just for younger people tends to encourage people to mix which is good for morale & personal well being, when I bought one of my first houses on a new estate most of the people were my age & within 6 months through my kids playing out with others I new everyone up & down both sides of the road, Since moving to a mixed age group road 10 years ago I only know my direct neighbours & haven't a clue who lives each side of them or opposite! !

[sikhthetech] 09/6/2020 19:08

Jug,

"in my trade we are busy & I am being contacted daily now by companies I have never worked for before."

Yes, you keep saying you're extremely busy, you've hired lots of people, work is twice as busy than before Covid lockdown, dividends will return within few months, you mix in with the TW management etc etc etc..


So why did TW's number of completions drop 40%?
When you next mix in with the management, ask them to publish the actual number of houses sold since the lockdown, as they did in May.


"infact any company that doesn't have at least six months cash reserves in the bank is to me a badly ran company & should be forced to close"

In which case why did TW use tax payer's money to furlough staff?

If they have so much money then why is their 5% discount to NHS staff dependant on them being approved for Help to Buy? A better goodwill gesture would be to offer the discount to every healthcare working without Help to Buy as a condition.

[jugears] 09/6/2020 17:14

Masterblaster- 5p here, 5p there not even worth buying if your selling at £1.70, As for higher lows & higher highs I have been saying that for Months! if you believe that why sell for a pittance profit I would want at least 20-30p? I know we all have our strategies but what harm is there in investing today & waiting for 1.70/1.80 or 1.90, you are either investing money you don't have or have know balls IMO. Take a few risks & gambles in life & you are likely to go a long way.

[masterblaster] 09/6/2020 13:24

Just bought some more with an exit price around £1.70 which will imo soon happen.We are getting higher lows and higher highs

[gbh2] 09/6/2020 13:13

There may be a problem and IF I thought it was serious I'd move on, there's loads of companies out there that are not in the Housing market, however I'll still be buying because whatever happens TW is my best earner in the last decade :)

[sikhthetech] 09/6/2020 13:01

P1966,

"To what extent does house price data differentiate between the secondary housing market and new builds?"

New builds carry a premium of around 20%, supported by taxpayers money, via Help to Buy scheme.


From last year:

SIMON LAMBERT: Help to Buy has boosted builders' profits and got them addicted to a subsidy - but will the government end up losing money too?

"The report said that Help to Buy may have lifted housebuilding by an estimated 14 per cent, but it didn’t make homes more affordable, or address other housing problems.

Meg Hillier, the committee chairwoman, said Help to Buy had ‘boosted the bottom line of house builders’ and will have tied up £29billion in cash by 2023."

"New build homes are sold as a premium product, but once someone moves in they lose the shine afforded from the promise of being the first to live there.

The committee put the new-build price premium at up to 20 per cent, while the ONS’s house price statistics show the average new build home costs £282,367 and the average second hand one £226,263.

In a market where house price rises are strong, losing the new-build premium when you sell up doesn’t matter so much, as property inflation helps you regain lost ground.

In a subdued property market, such as Britain’s current one that many forecast to persist, those selling their new-build within a few years may have to accept less than they paid for it.

This led Hillier to add: ‘The scheme exposes both the government and consumers to significant financial risks were house prices or interest rates to change. Better consumer protection needs to be built into similar schemes in the future.’

The committee said, if Help to Buy is to continue then its failings should be seriously considered and remedied.

The government also needs a plan to wean developers off their addiction to Help to Buy, unless we want to continue subsidising new home sales and big executive pay packets forever."

[masterblaster] 09/6/2020 12:50

Imo if dow opens up we may finish blue

[jugears] 09/6/2020 10:17

Never goes up more than a few days in a row.

[gbh2] 09/6/2020 08:44

I was hoping this profit taking would wait until Friday, when I get my hands on some new cash :(

[omg48] 08/6/2020 23:29

Jugears
Like you, I supplied building trade for over 35 years, mainly TW who I always found to be professional, loyal to its suppliers, paid on time. Fantastic relationship for all those years. Sold my business and new owners still supplying them. 5 star company. I see even better returns on them once covid has gone and brexit sorted. Waited for a few years for stability and great returns, just round the corner.

[p1966] 08/6/2020 21:38

To what extent does house price data differentiate between the secondary housing market and new builds? New builds offer peace of mind with a 10 yr NHBC guarantee, latest building regs, new white goods - supported (for the time being) by Help to Buy, and for the medium to long term by ultra low mortgage rates. There remains a structural shortage of housing, and as their life circumstances change, people will always be wanting to move out of rented accommodation (and thus be chain free). Construction re-start has been well flagged, allowing house builders and suppliers to prepare.

[sikhthetech] 08/6/2020 21:12

"so much for big recession & down turn."

It's early days...
You claim you know what's happening 6 months in advance...



UK House Prices 2020: How Has Coronavirus Affected the Housing Market So Far?

We’re still in the “discovery phase” and opinion is divided, but here’s what the latest numbers show. By Carol Lewis


"However, a key problem with the Nationwide and Halifax research is that it is based only on mortgages that they have agreed and from a time when transaction levels were very low. During the seven weeks the property market was closed, an average of 3,809 sales a week were agreed in the UK (this fell to just 3,125 a week in April). This is less than a fifth of the usual number."

"The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) said on April 14 that property prices would fall 13% by the end of 2020. On April 20 Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, launched the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.

This week the CEBR revised its forecast to a fall of 8.7% this year. Kay Neufeld, head of macroeconomics at the CEBR, says that there will be a gradual decline in house prices this year and that there could be "a bit of a cliff edge" when furloughing comes to an end. "We are still at the start of a major recession and as soon as the job-retention scheme comes to an end we could see a reduction in household incomes and reduced demand for housing," Neufeld says.

Bill agrees that there is a bumpy road ahead for the housing market. "Over the summer I think we might see some pretty nasty GDP data, which could tip us into recession, and that will negatively impact on sentiment, which will inevitably have a knock-on effect on the housing market. Then the furlough scheme will unwind and we will see how that affects employment," he says."

[jugears] 08/6/2020 20:07

Wfl ,I don't post under different names but will see these over £2.00 by end of year without a doubt.

[jugears] 08/6/2020 20:00

Omg,Should have bought Tullow oil nice near 100% profit & a lot more to come. Very happy with my recent investments in Lloyd's,Taylor Wimpey & Tullow. So much for all the f-----g doommongers best 3 months investing I have had in 40 years, should make lock down an annual event! My work order book is so full I am now looking to take extra staff on, so much for big recession & down turn.